Not so deep thoughts by donlever

[donlever]

I'd be interested to know why MCP makes his statement.

My overall impression is that EP40 is indeed understood as a tainted asset with respect to his future benefits to a team and his salary.

Although the growing cap and changing salary structures do, I believe, minimize that and create a potential ability to move him.

[Tciso]

Don, I think MCP is right. EP40 is hated by a lot of fans, and our local media. Yes, the shine has come off, but the rest of the league looks at the player, not the negative media spin. EP40 has had a few injuries the last 2 years. You see it in his edge work, and his sub 103mph shot

With the rising cap, his hit isn't that bad. Add in a bounce back from being on a better team, and recover from injuries, and teams will be looking hard. He isn't returning 4 1st round picks, but there is a return without retention.

As a group, we seem to over value the players we like, and undervalue the ones we hate. GMs are paid not to do this.

[donlever]

Yeah....overall I don't disagree Tciso....earlier in the thread and in my post you responded to I said as much in terms of an ability to move him which I believe potentially rests more on his choice(s) than any specific teams saying no to having interest.

(....for example I think the Pens would work but I would not think he goes there however much of a positive outcome that might be for him career and success wise...)

I do not paint the situation with precisely the same brush as you and MCP however.

I believe he is regarded as what has become (to some degree at least) a flawed player with a great deal of risk attached and that is likely a league wide concern.

Subjective......

[Madcombinepilot]

Hey Donnie..

Subjective is true. I think EP 40 -out side Vancouver market- is a great piece on a contending team. Ever since that first shot against Calgary the media here built him into something he wasn’t. He has never liked the spot lights (remember those first interviews? ) and after that 100 point season, the media here made him the alien god.

He is now the last major piece that’s still here of a broken team that underperformed for several reasons, and the new ‘Vancouver media’ whipping boy. (This team ALWAYS has a whipping boy. The few times this team doesn’t have one, the media MAKES one)

So when I say he is tradeable, well, he is. There are people here and locally who have the hate turned up so bad they think we need to attach a sweetener to get rid of him, which is kinda retarded.

The question is his value. He is a slightly overpaid excellent second line center. Not a leader of a team, a complimentary piece. I say slightly overpaid, because the new normal for a good 2C is 8-10 million, which makes him a couple million overpaid for a 2C (this is a less than 2% overpayment in cap terms).

I think he needs to go. He can’t stay here. I also think he will return to the old Petey once he leaves. A 75-90 point guy. He will be on the highlight reels again.

But fml, are we weak down the middle when he is gone.

He should return 3 pieces— just like every other top end 2C.

He has to go, but the hate here is a bit overdone is all I am saying.

[edit] — I am curious who will be the next media whipping boy when Petey is gone…..

[UWSaint]

To add to MCP's post....

I think at this point most Vancouver fans focus on what's not there with EP40 and other fan bases (and pro scouts) look at what *is* there, what has been there in the past, and what else is out there that solves their team's problems. Or at least balances it all. Unless there's a meaningful offensive rebound this season, that second category will get less and less meaningful the further away we get from the last time he was a point a game player because the chance of returning to that level are more and more remote, but notice how much and how quickly that third category changes over time. And notice just how much the cap changes the value of the contract -- $11.6M goes from definitive 1C money to 10% of the cap next season, which is pretend #1 better off as number 2 maybe not-really-a-center money (e.g., Matthew Barzal....).

I've beaten a dead horse on this point: it only takes one Jim Benning to see a half full glass and be desperate to fill an organizational need and acquire a name. Two is better, because it creates a market. You sell to fill other team's needs, not to purge your problem. And there are at least 10 Jim Benning like GM's in the league. Think about the pressure on Pat Verbeek if they can't match Carlsson, think of the pressure on Steve Yzerman if he deals Larkin. Things are fluid; individual team needs are not simply the known-years-in-advance age declines/retirements, but sometimes pop up in short windows with desperate teams. Then, strike. (Of course the NMC adds another layer to get through).

So what if a Jim Benning like GM doesn't pounce in the next year? Maybe they pounce the next year, but I think the number of potential suitors actually will start increasing. EP40 has puny shoulders--literally--and he was never going to carry a team. Good GMs know this. But as the cap increases, the potential suitors will move from the desperate to the better and more stable teams who aren't looking for Pettersson to carry shit, but to be an all situations 2C. The added strength hasn't done his offense shit (and I think is working against it), but its made him more difficult to play against. His PK ability is pretty good. These teams aren't looking for a rebound to 70 points -- 55 or 60 would do just fine if it solves a center depth issue. And he doesn't need to even demonstrate that in Vancouver -- 45-50 points on a shit team that's always in the defensive zone and lacks top end finish -- that's certainly 55-60 on a good team, no? And soon that kind of player is making $9-$11M; what's the extra million if the team can absorb it and its the best fit for the missing piece?

Feature the player, pump those tires.

[donlever]

Great posting MCP and UW.

Solid replies...great discussion.

Love it.

In the end we all agree on one thing.

Dude needs to be moved for both his and our sakes....

[Topper]

The glaring hole in MCP's argument is, Scooter demanded the $11.6M/yr, 5th highest deal in the league at that time.

He demanded to be paid as the Alien God at a time his pulse rate was about to mirror his offspring's.

Given the front loaded contract, he owes Vancouver $30M debt in performance at this point.

[UWSaint]

Given the front loaded contract, he owes Vancouver $30M debt in performance at this point.

Sunk costs.

The front loaded contract makes it more movable. Especially after that $5M signing bonus is paid in 2027, which I assume is July 1, but I don't know for sure.

The only non-sunk cost aspect of front loading is that it is basically buyout proof. An acquiring team isn't hedging.

[Madcombinepilot]

The glaring hole in MCP's argument is, Scooter demanded the $11.6M/yr, 5th highest deal in the league at that time.

He demanded to be paid as the Alien God at a time his pulse rate was about to mirror his offspring's.

Given the front loaded contract, he owes Vancouver $30M debt in performance at this point.

This demonstrates my point.

Hate him all you want, this league has always paid for past performance.

My point is all about his perceived value to the rest of the league, not the value you are attaching to him.

Your hate is gonna eat you up

[Meds]

I'd be interested to know why MCP makes his statement.

My overall impression is that EP40 is indeed understood as a tainted asset with respect to his future benefits to a team and his salary.

I would also add this in response to the worn shine and tainted asset…..

Vancouver is the 3rd largest market in Canada. American fans likely pay nothing more than token attention to this team. American media covers it to a degree, but the Canucks are not in headlines there like American based teams are here.

While front offices around the league are certainly paying attention, they also have seen that some players simply wilt under the intense scrutiny of Canadian fans and media, but those same players recover their game when moved out of that toxic limelight. That thought process can be reinforced when one considers that it has been 33 years since a Canadian team hoisted Lord Stanley, and in that time only 7 times has a Canadian team even reached the finals.

So yes, the rising cap alone probably opens the marketplace, coupled with insane salaries cruising towards $20M, I think it opens it up to a point where the NMC Scooter holds is the greater holdup.

[Topper]

The glaring hole in MCP's argument is, Scooter demanded the $11.6M/yr, 5th highest deal in the league at that time.

He demanded to be paid as the Alien God at a time his pulse rate was about to mirror his offspring's.

Given the front loaded contract, he owes Vancouver $30M debt in performance at this point.

This demonstrates my point.

Hate him all you want, this league has always paid for past performance.

My point is all about his perceived value to the rest of the league, not the value you are attaching to him.

Your hate is gonna eat you up

His stats are public knowledge. Teams do watch video of their opponents.

His dismal play play is no secret.

[Tciso]

His stats are public knowledge. Teams do watch video of their opponents.

His dismal play is no secret.

Its all subjective. They see the lack of support around him. They see how he played thru injuries. They see his improved defensive skills.

And, one of them likely see a guy who fills a need. It could be for a 2nd line center. It could be the need to make a trade to shut the media up, or save a job.

When you look at the moves this off season, EP40 getting traded isn't far fetched. EP40 for 2 assets and a roster player is no more far fetched than Nurse getting traded, or paying 4 1sts and $18 mil for Leo, or the 4thOA for Byram. GMs are human, and many are ex players with various stages of brain damage. Don't underestimate them.

[Topper]

Oh Fuck, I needed that laugh.

[Meds]

His stats are public knowledge. Teams do watch video of their opponents.

His dismal play is no secret.

Its all subjective. They see the lack of support around him. They see how he played thru injuries. They see his improved defensive skills.

And, one of them likely see a guy who fills a need. It could be for a 2nd line center. It could be the need to make a trade to shut the media up, or save a job.

When you look at the moves this off season, EP40 getting traded isn't far fetched. EP40 for 2 assets and a roster player is no more far fetched than Nurse getting traded, or paying 4 1sts and $18 mil for Leo, or the 4thOA for Byram. GMs are human, and many are ex players with various stages of brain damage. Don't underestimate them.

Yeah. When you consider that I have wanted this guy gone for years, and that I never saw a franchise level player in him, even I can see that there is a market out there. The value of that market is uncertain, but he can definitely be moved. The real holdup is the NMC they gave him.

[donlever]

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