US Erection 12 *AND* 16 *AND* 20 *AND* 22 *AND* 24 *AND* Beyond

[Megaterio Llamas]

Iran will close off the Straight of Hormuz and crash the world economy before they ever get close to surrendering btw.

They probably will, if the attacks from Israel/USA continue, but I don’t think it’ll crash the global economy. Up to 20% of global oil exports move through that strait, but mostly to Asia. It surely will put a strain on the economy and raise oil prices, but that is basically good for countries like Canada, Norway, Venezuela and Russia. And at least northern Europe has become increasingly independent of oil.

I’ve personally weaned myself off it completely. I’ve traded my Outlander PHEV for a real EV that I’m picking up this afternoon. My home has communal district heating, so it’s a combination of industrial excess heat, biofuels and garbage incineration. The industries here are mostly lumber/pulp/paper, and I know from the pulp mill I worked at that we generated heat and electricity by burning bark, twigs, etc; ie the parts of the lumber that didn’t go into the pulp production. We actually even sold surplus electricity plus heat to a nearby sawmill. So, the industrial excess heat here is also mostly generated by biofuels. Swedish electricity is 99.9% fossil free. There is one powerplant in southern Sweden that runs on oil, but they only use it occasionally in the winter when electricity prices soar.
My eldest daughter has geothermal heating for the house and an EV, my youngest has district heating and a hybrid car.

I think, overall, the Nordic countries will not be affected by a 15% drop in global oil exports. Norway will benefit from it and the rest of us shrug it off. Could be tougher for southern Europe, who haven’t come as far in the switch to green energy, but they seem to go into crisis mode on a fairly regular base either way. Maybe this will provide the push they need to step up their game.

That's interesting Per. Let's hope we can avoid it, just the same. I remember the Arab oil embargo in '73, and I wouldn't want to experience anything like it again. One lasting effect was that the size of cars shrank drastically from 73 to 74.

Oil tankers heading through the Strait seem to be taking the precaution of hiding their registry. https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/15964

[Meds]

Saudi, Oman, UAE, and Qatar, all have territorial claims over the Straight of Hormuz. Considering that territorial waters extend 33 km out from shore, there are places where those nation’s jurisdictions overlap with Iran.

If Iran negatively impacts the economies of any of this countries it could set things of badly and they could find themselves facing more than an Israel-US alliance.

[Per]

That's interesting Per. Let's hope we can avoid it, just the same. I remember the Arab oil embargo in '73, and I wouldn't want to experience anything like it again. One lasting effect was that the size of cars shrank drastically from 73 to 74.

Oil tankers heading through the Strait seem to be taking the precaution of hiding their registry. https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/15964

Prior to that oil crisis roughly two thirds of Swedish homes were heated with oil, but we learnt from our mistakes. As prices skyrocketed, people were incentivized to switch to electricity, wood pellets or district heating. There was a second oil crisis in like 1978 or something, which confirmed that the old oil heated boilers had to go. Today less than 2% of homes are heated with fossil fuels. Apartments are more than 90% district heating. One family houses are about 60% some sort of heat pump, including geothermal ones, roughly one third district heating and the rest wood pellets or electric.

Yes, an oil crisis is no fun, but nowadays we aren’t as dependent on oil as we used to be. And I won’t ever have to fill up at the gas station again. Bought a Skoda Enyaq iV 80X Sportline. In theory it should reach 513 km with a fully charged battery, but I guess 450 is more realistic, and probably less in the winter. It uses 17 kWh per 100 km, so even though it cost a fair bit to buy, it’ll be really cheap to drive and won’t be affected by oil prices going up. And it has a heat pump which helps you get more out of the battery in the winter. The technology keeps improving.