The primary goal of this site is to provide mature, meaningful discussion about the Vancouver Canucks. However, we all need a break some time so this forum is basically for anything off-topic, off the wall, or to just get something off your chest! This forum is named after poster Creeper, who passed away in July of 2011 and was a long time member of the Canucks message board community.
I mean as if we can trust anything coming out of China in regards to this virus right now!
Hey man, I'm certainly not one to blindly accept anything coming out of China. Remember, I was the one informing you all of the crematoriums in Wuhan working 24x7 to process the bodies, well before most of you started doubting China's stats, let alone the potential for a worldwide pandemic. Yeah, my hair was justifiably on fire!
Anyways, if this article is a production of the CCP propaganda machine, to what end? Let's not throw out the baby with the bath water.
Strangelove wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:19 pm"Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof." - 5th's article.
Not only do these... 2?? ... researchers have no proof, the science itself lends them no support.
Great quote mining there SL! Taken in context, this statement is background information that led to the published study that this article is about. It is not a commentary about the published study itself.
Strangelove wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:19 pm
Yeahno, the way I understand it, mutations in an RNA virus are generally bad news for the virus, rather than us.
I sure hope you're right, otherwise we are in for years, if not decades, of battling this virus. That's why studies like this (even coming out of China) are important to consider.
So what say you? Are we going to see to see a "2nd wave" come autumn? I reckon you don't think so.
Topper wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:10 pm
Lumping cases to determine mortality rates ignore factors like age and influence of other chronic conditions. Grouping national cases together when the pandemic is treated by provincial/state or more local jurisdictions also creates wild distortions in the models.
An outbreak in a seniors care centre will produce far more fatalities than a chicken processing plant outbreak.
BC's numbers had been driven by care home outbreaks, those are coming under control but are replaced by work site (poultry plant and oil sands camp) and the Mission prison. Watch for case numbers to rise over the coming days, but mortality to drop over the next couple of weeks unless more care home become an issue.
Absolutely true. The wildly different numbers also depend on how countries report. Countries like France, Spain, the UK and the Netherlands basically only include in-patients in their numbers. People who have died at home, or in nursing homes are generally not included. This explains the disparity between Belgium and the Netherlands, two neighbouring countries that are very similar in every aspect and that have followed similar strategies.
On paper their outcome so far shows extreme differences; 518 covid-19 deaths per million inhabitants in Belgium and only 229 in the Netherlands. But the Dutch figures only include those that were hospitalised and diagnosed with covid-19 whereas nearly half the Belgian deaths are elderly at nursing homes that showed covid-like symptoms.
Now, sure, there may be the odd flu patient in the Belgian figures, but overall I would say their estimate is far more plausible than the Dutch one, and in reality the mortality rate is probaly roughly the same in both countries.
We won’t really know the true mortality rate until this is over, and in the Spanish flu case that took nearly three years, with the second wave being worse than the first.
Last edited by Per on Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:36 pm
What drove the panic was the fear of overwhelming the healthcare sector. We are seeing reduced mortality rates exactly because we put into place stay at home and social distancing and closed everything down. Had we not done those things I think we would have seen uncontrollable spread, a collapsed healthcare system and a lot more death, violence and crime.
I think we did the right things. Did we have to do a complete shut down? Is Sweden right? Who knows. But we need to start the transition into reopening.
As for restaurants, Dr. Henry today asked the BC Restaurant Association for an action plan on reopening. Her perimeters were respect social distancing and protect workers. The Association was thrilled she asked them, didn't dictate and said they will have an action plan to present within 10 days.
It will be hard because a lot of restaurants won't make money if they can only be half full. If they have to have 2 meters apart from every table, limited capacity, they won't survive. And reservations will be a bitch to get! But its a start. Coffee shops and such will probably reopen for take out. Bars and clubs will remain closed for a little longer.
But we have to start somewhere. BTW, BC announced today that anybody who wants a test can now get one. where I don't know but they are opening it up to the public at large.
BTW the chicken processing plant on Cordova got shut down today!!
Swedish restaurants have been open throughout, but they are only allowed to sell takeout and serve seated customers, and tables must be at least 1.5 metres apart. No buffets, no self service, no line to the cash register, no drinking at the bar. Yet most restaurants have lost 70% or more of business, as people are practicing social distancing and most people work from home. There’s also hardly any business travellers any more.
Local authorities are responsible for monitoring that the rules are followed and can shut down any restaurant that is not adhering to them.
One of our favourite restaurants, a water front seafood place some 50 kms out of town, that we planned to visit for our daughter’s birthday, is now only open on weekends as there is too little business during weekdays for it to make sense to be open.
... and as I said before, there is severe underreporting of the true number of covid-19 related deaths:
The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.
The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.
The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.
As you can see from this graph, with greenish/turquoise dots marking weekly UK death rates 1970-2019 and the red line showing weekly deaths in 2020, the last few weeks are distinctly different from a seasonal flu outbreak.
5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:27 pm
Lumping the figures together to calculate a Case Fatality Rate for coronavirus overall can be misleading. There are different strains of the virus with differing lethality (is that a word?).
Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds
The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States
Ummm.....no shit.
Coronaviruses are the cause of the common cold.....and we have how many of those floating around.
Covid-19 is the same virus family as many others that make us sick with the sniffles and a cough throughout the year.
But it mutated in a bat (presumably?) and became Covid-19 which is a more deadly strain of coronavirus.
Or are they now saying that Covid-19 is mutating?
The only figures we should be caring about during this here pandemic are the Covid-19 ones (unless MersCov or SarsCov suddenly reappear).
Somewhere in NW BC trying (yet again) to trade a(nother) Swede…..
Don't forget those money loving godless heathens believed the earlier high death rates when they proceeded in that direction.
And they fearlessly faced their attacker with painted faces, axes, hammers, and braided beards.....basically they are scoffing at Ragnarok and daring it to do its worst.
Somewhere in NW BC trying (yet again) to trade a(nother) Swede…..
5thhorseman wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:27 pm
Lumping the figures together to calculate a Case Fatality Rate for coronavirus overall can be misleading. There are different strains of the virus with differing lethality (is that a word?).
Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds
The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States
Ummm.....no shit.
Coronaviruses are the cause of the common cold.....and we have how many of those floating around.
Covid-19 is the same virus family as many others that make us sick with the sniffles and a cough throughout the year.
But it mutated in a bat (presumably?) and became Covid-19 which is a more deadly strain of coronavirus.
Or are they now saying that Covid-19 is mutating?
The only figures we should be caring about during this here pandemic are the Covid-19 ones (unless MersCov or SarsCov suddenly reappear).
Covid-19 is the disease. Sars-CoV-2 is the virus.
They are suggesting, based on lab work, that Sars-CoV-2 is mutating and this could result in some strains that are much more deadly than others.
If true, this could explain some of the variance in Case Fatality Rate per country / region.
Strangelove wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:19 pmYeahno, the way I understand it, mutations in an RNA virus are generally bad news for the virus, rather than us.
I sure hope you're right, otherwise we are in for years, if not decades, of battling this virus. That's why studies like this (even coming out of China) are important to consider.
So what say you? Are we going to see to see a "2nd wave" come autumn? I reckon you don't think so.
Well there are more factors at play RE:2nd Wave than just the mutation factor.
FWIW my personal hunch is there will be a 2nd, albeit less severe, wave.
But my opinion... or yours... aren't worth a hill of beans in that matter at this time.
I've seen experts taking seats at each side of the debate.
There is not enough science/data/evidence/research to know for sure yet.
Having said that, I'm sure my statement above is correct.
The vast majority of RNA virus mutations are detrimental to the virus.
For example, the Spanish Flu eventually mutated its way to oblivion.
Although it took a few decades to do so.
BTW I almost moved your Chinese link to the Micky Link thread, it was that bad...
“And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean."
And then, in his very next sentence, he explained exactly what he meant:
“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time”
There was an advertisement between the 2 sentences
Ok opinions...i have seen models showing how the spanish flus 2nd wave had 4x the deaths as the 1st wave, who here (obviously Doc isnt one...) thinks we are in for something similar?
Our comparable lands us in the middle of that first bump
Last edited by Cousin Strawberry on Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:03 pm
Ok opinions...i have seen models showing how the spanish flus 2nd wave had 4x the deaths as the 1st wave, who here (obviously Doc isnt one...) thinks we are in for something similar?
A lot of unknowns at this point. Factors include:
- how fast the virus mutates
- how deadly the mutations are
- which parts of the virus a vaccine would target and are those parts mutating
- % of the population required for herd immunity and how close we are to that threshhold
- whether herd immunity to one strain will apply to another strain
... researchers have no proof, the science itself lends them no support.
