2026 NHL Draft

[Megaterio Llamas]

If they're drafting by nepotism at least we will be assured the gong show will be real and sooner than later...

Sadly for the kid, he'll be under a microscope if we draft him, and if he doesn't pan out (live up to the 1C expectations placed on him), he'll be considered a wasted pick due to the aforementioned nepotism. Any setbacks, and the media will eat him alive.

He is first on some lists, according to Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman. He's gonna land where he lands completely on merit. Incredible season, and playoffs. A couple of years at BU and we could be looking at a Barkov type premium two way center.

I still hope Stenberg slips too, but what do I know? Not much.

[UWSaint]

He is first on some lists, according to Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman. He's gonna land where he lands completely on merit.

I think the problem is that even if a guy could be there on merit, the organization can't really make their own objective evaluation of that merit. There are going to be lots of lists with guys in a different place, but presumably you have your scouting staff in place because you think they add something to all the publicly available resources. It is their judgment (with the PoHos and RyJos) that ultimately matters as to which of these competing lists will be the Canucks list, and its their judgment that is going to be affected by the family connection.

Now I am not expert on prospects, either, but I can observe biases that affects experts. Nepotism is one, the mystical "bloodlines" is another (that's not to say there's no benefit to having a family experience where a parent was a professional athlete so you know what it takes more completely, but it is typically given too much weight, and much of the benefits of bloodlines (like athleticism) are quite measurable without knowing the parentage). The Canucks are affected by both, most of the "experts" are affected by the latter. Add to that Malhotra is rising with a bullet, and we have recency bias, which isn't a hockey-only phenomena, but can be overstated. Of course with 17 and 18 year olds, recency *should* weigh more because they are rapidly developing as players. But still, approach it with some skepticism.

On the other hand -- with the what do I know caveat -- I think there's an opposite effect where a player is *so* good, so highly regarded, that when he stops blowing people out of the water and is merely the best, he loses perceived value. I think that's happening with McKenna. Its kind of weird to see how scouts drool over Malhotra's last two months as a sample size while what McKenna did at Penn State his last couple of months was absolutely dominant for a draft -1 player in the NCAA and no one really talks about it. If McKenna wasn't the "obvious" best player in the draft class 2 years ago and then have some growing pains (they weren't even pains, just adjustments), the perception would be different, wouldn't it? That's not to say McKenna doesn't have some areas of his game that are incomplete and somewhat concerning, but I think there's superstar upside in that player which no other forward in the draft has. There will be other good players in the draft, other stars, but I don't see the "super" potential in anyone but McKenna.

[Megaterio Llamas]

He is first on some lists, according to Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman. He's gonna land where he lands completely on merit.

I think the problem is that even if a guy could be there on merit, the organization can't really make their own objective evaluation of that merit. There are going to be lots of lists with guys in a different place, but presumably you have your scouting staff in place because you think they add something to all the publicly available resources. It is their judgment (with the PoHos and RyJos) that ultimately matters as to which of these competing lists will be the Canucks list, and its their judgment that is going to be affected by the family connection.

Now I am not expert on prospects, either, but I can observe biases that affects experts. Nepotism is one, the mystical "bloodlines" is another (that's not to say there's no benefit to having a family experience where a parent was a professional athlete so you know what it takes more completely, but it is typically given too much weight, and much of the benefits of bloodlines (like athleticism) are quite measurable without knowing the parentage). The Canucks are affected by both, most of the "experts" are affected by the latter. Add to that Malhotra is rising with a bullet, and we have recency bias, which isn't a hockey-only phenomena, but can be overstated. Of course with 17 and 18 year olds, recency *should* weigh more because they are rapidly developing as players. But still, approach it with some skepticism.

On the other hand -- with the what do I know caveat -- I think there's an opposite effect where a player is *so* good, so highly regarded, that when he stops blowing people out of the water and is merely the best, he loses perceived value. I think that's happening with McKenna. Its kind of weird to see how scouts drool over Malhotra's last two months as a sample size while what McKenna did at Penn State his last couple of months was absolutely dominant for a draft -1 player in the NCAA and no one really talks about it. If McKenna wasn't the "obvious" best player in the draft class 2 years ago and then have some growing pains (they weren't even pains, just adjustments), the perception would be different, wouldn't it? That's not to say McKenna doesn't have some areas of his game that are incomplete and somewhat concerning, but I think there's superstar upside in that player which no other forward in the draft has. There will be other good players in the draft, other stars, but I don't see the "super" potential in anyone but McKenna.

One of the potential pitfalls with McKenna will be the temptation to shoehorn him into the lineup next year, ready or not, to capatalize on the hype.
I'm innclined to think he is one player who would really benefit from another hear at Penn State. Another year in their world class training facility is probably the right move imvho. Is it likely? I don't think so.

[Cornuck]

He's [Malhotra] gonna land where he lands completely on merit. Incredible season, and playoffs.

I don't doubt that he has merit to be picked at #3 - many rankings have him there, but I'm just saying that is WE pick him, unless he's a stud, he'll always be under a microscope. You know the media in this town as well as anyone.

[Aaronp18]

Malhotra shouldn't be taken unless we somehow trade back to get 2 picks in the top 10 and he's there after McKenna, Stenberg, Reid, Verhoeff, Carels, and for sure Rudolph. Might even take Lawrence before him!

Ideally we walk away with one of McKenna or Stenberg if the Sharks take Reid or another RHD. If not we take Verhoeff or Reid at 3 if Mckenna and Stenberg are taken.

Look for some centres later in round 1 and early round 2. There's a couple Finnish centres projected a little later in teh first that are intriguing, Oliver Suvanto and Juho Piiparinen, both decent sized. Then we have Ruck bro 2, Maddox Dagenais, and. couple Russians in Shilov and Morozov who are already in NA playing.

[Megaterio Llamas]

He's [Malhotra] gonna land where he lands completely on merit. Incredible season, and playoffs.

I don't doubt that he has merit to be picked at #3 - many rankings have him there, but I'm just saying that is WE pick him, unless he's a stud, he'll always be under a microscope. You know the media in this town as well as anyone.

Yeah for sure Corn. Like I said, I do hope Stenberg slips to us. I think he's the best player, Swede or not. But, again, what do I know.

Malhotra does seem like the kind of character kid that could stand the pressure. Especially with some time in the NCAA under his belt.

[2Fingers]

He's [Malhotra] gonna land where he lands completely on merit. Incredible season, and playoffs.

I don't doubt that he has merit to be picked at #3 - many rankings have him there, but I'm just saying that is WE pick him, unless he's a stud, he'll always be under a microscope. You know the media in this town as well as anyone.

Not just media, fans as well especially here.

[Cornuck]

I asked ChatGPT to look at the rankings and consider BPA for each of the first 4 Canuck picks. Watching it 'think', it cruised through about 20 sites.

Code: Select all

My BPA picks for Vancouver
Pick	Player		Pos.	Team				Why this pick
#3	Chase Reid	RD	Soo Greyhounds, OHL		Best blend of consensus ranking, premium position, production, and upside
#24	Nikita Klepov	F	Saginaw Spirit, OHL		High-end scoring value if he slips into the 20s
#33	Yegor Shilov	C/F	Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL	Skilled offensive center/forward with strong production
#41	Tommy Bleyl	RD	Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL		Big offensive upside from the back end, especially if still on the board

[donlever]

Can you do it sans Reid...he won't be there at 3 imo (repeat rinse repeat ad nauseum)....

[Cornuck]

Can you do it sans Reid...he won't be there at 3 imo (repeat rinse repeat ad nauseum)....

Code: Select all

Based on current mocks, rankings, and team fit, my updated top three prediction would be:

Pick	Team			Predicted pick	Position	Reason
1	Toronto Maple leaves	Gavin McKenna	LW		Best offensive talent, safest franchise-swing pick
2	San Jose Sharks		Chase Reid	RD		Best fit between BPA and organizational need
3	Vancouver Canucks	Caleb Malhotra	C		Best center in the draft, fills Vancouver’s biggest pipeline hole

1. Toronto Maple leaves: Gavin McKenna, LW

I (ChatGPT) still think Toronto takes Gavin McKenna first overall.

This is the one pick where need should not override talent. NHL.com’s mock has both of its writers taking McKenna at No. 1, calling him the most talented player in the class and an elite offensive driver. Sportsnet’s mock also has Toronto taking McKenna, noting that he gives the leaves a chance to replace high-end skill and vision up front.

The only real argument against McKenna is Ivar Stenberg, who Jason Bukala ranks No. 1 on his board because of his complete game, three-zone detail, compete level, and SHL production. But even then, McKenna is still No. 2 on that same list, and the broader public mock-draft momentum still points to McKenna first.

Why Toronto does it:
They can use help in several places, but at No. 1 you take the player with the highest star potential. McKenna gives Toronto the most dynamic offensive upside in the draft.

My confidence: High.

2. San Jose Sharks: Chase Reid, RD

This is where the draft really starts.

If San Jose drafts strictly BPA, Ivar Stenberg is a very strong possibility. NHL.com had one writer mock Stenberg to San Jose, and he is ranked No. 1 by Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala.

But when you combine BPA with organizational fit, I think the Sharks take Chase Reid.

San Jose already has major young forward pieces, including Macklin Celebrini, Michael Misa, Will Smith, and William Eklund. NHL.com specifically notes that forward depth when discussing the Sharks at No. 2. That makes a high-end defenseman more attractive if the talent gap is close.

Sportsnet mocks Reid to San Jose and says right-shot defensemen who skate as well as Reid are too hard to pass up. San Jose Hockey Now also summarized expert mocks and found that Chris Peters, Sam Cosentino, Scott Wheeler, and Craig Button all had the Sharks taking Reid at No. 2.

Why San Jose does it:
Reid gives them a potential top-pair, power-play right-shot defenseman to grow with their elite young forwards. That is the cleanest need-plus-BPA match in the top three.

My confidence: Medium. Stenberg is the danger pick here.

3. Vancouver Canucks: Caleb Malhotra, C

If Toronto takes McKenna and San Jose takes Reid, Vancouver’s decision probably comes down to Ivar Stenberg versus Caleb Malhotra.

On pure BPA, Stenberg may be the stronger pick. Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala ranks Stenberg No. 1 overall, and Upside Hockey has McKenna and Stenberg alone in Tier 1.

But based on team need, I think Vancouver takes Caleb Malhotra.

NHL.com mocked Malhotra to Vancouver with both writers, describing him as arguably the top center in the draft and a potential foundation piece for a rebuild. Sportsnet also mocked Malhotra to Vancouver, pointing to the value of center depth and the family connection, since Manny Malhotra has coached Abbotsford.

The Hockey Writers makes the fit even clearer, saying Vancouver’s organizational depth down the middle has been a concern for several seasons and that the pipeline lacks a true blue-chip center prospect who can become a top-six player.

Why Vancouver does it:
Malhotra is the best center in the draft, has size, two-way value, playoff production, and fills the Canucks’ biggest positional need. If the Canucks are rebuilding, a center is a more foundational piece than another winger.

My confidence: Medium-high, but only if San Jose takes Reid. If Stenberg is still there, Vancouver will have a very hard decision.

My final predicted top three
Toronto Maple leaves, Gavin McKenna, LW
San Jose Sharks, Chase Reid, RD
Vancouver Canucks, Caleb Malhotra, C

The one pick that could flip the whole thing is San Jose at No. 2. If the Sharks take Ivar Stenberg, then Vancouver probably chooses between Chase Reid and Caleb Malhotra. In that case, I would slightly lean Malhotra for Vancouver because of center need, but Reid would be the more traditional BPA/premium-position argument.

[Aaronp18]

I don't like our new ChatGTPGM.

[Cornuck]

I don't like our new ChatGTPGM.

Well, you haven't seen the alternative in action yet.

[donlever]

Chat GPT erring to positional need as opposed to BPA.

Perfect.

[Cornuck]

Chat GPT erring to positional need as opposed to BPA.

Perfect.

As it was asked to. Just checking to see if Reid would end up picked 2nd with that factored in.

[Carl Yagro]

I hope Frank stops cheaping out with the free version and starts using the paid version of ChatGPT to help out his rookie GM and CoPoHos.