The Rebuild - What it should look like

[Madcombinepilot]

With the rebuild creeping into every thread, Might be nice to try and keep it contained. The goal is to be competitive for a playoff spot in 2029, and make the playoffs in 2030. Make the 2nd-3rd round+ for the next 4-5 years as that's the window. With good drafting, this window can be extended.

Keep in mind, when this current team has had 2 serviceable top 6 centers, they are 9-5-1, so its closer than people think. This doesn't have to be a 10 year rebuild, I think it needs planning and a culture change (followed by a coaching or system change)

So, I think I will start with what the team should look like when the build is over. Position, role, age and current contracts will be included.

Our top 6:

power winger (20g 30a) - #1 center PPG (right now, this is Petey 11.6/2032) - Scoring winger (25-30g)

Debrusk (5.5/2031) - Rossi (5m current - I can be convinced he can be replaced) - Garland (6m/2031) ** Garland will be the captain - see below

I stuck with Pettersson as #1 C as unless we hit a home run in the draft - then he can play #2 C... and also, because this media needs someone to hate. In a couple years, 11.6 wont be that bad and if he plays at 75+ points (which should happen if he has wingers that can score more than once every 8 games)
Garland will be the next captain, as he is good with the media, and is not the best player on the team. I have a theory that in the Vancouver market the best player can't be the captain as the media and fans pile pressure on them and turn on them. If Garland goes 10 games without scoring, nobody cares, because nobody questions his work ethic and he faces the music in the media scrum. He plays and fights above his weight class.

Kane - gets traded this year before UFA. couple more games like last night, and we retain 1/2, should get a 2nd for him as he is a playoff guy
Brock - Gotta go to change the culture. will be an offseason move, and probably an actual hockey trade. We will throw in a 2nd.. out of habit.
Chytil - probably gets another conky before end of season, fimishes out contract on LTIR. if healthy, trade in offseason to avoid risk.


Bottom 6: (all pretty much interchangeable - they play with who they gel with)

Ohgren (kid is a dawg. might work his way into top 6) - Need a 3C who is big, can take faceoffs and forecheck - Karlsson (also a dawg and wins board battles)

O'Conner (dawg) - need a 4C who hits and fights - Hoglander (dawg - needs a different defensive structure)

Bottom 6 needs needs to be 100% dawgs, rats and assholes.
Sassons is fast, scores -- but needs to learn to spear people and win faceoffs or he is gone. good speed, but is a skill guy who doesnt make my top 6.
Bains has none of these traits, and clears waivers or not. He is a bag of pucks waiting to happen AHL All star
Kampf - needs to go. I dont care where. He is the definition of placeholder\
Raty - good on faceoffs. Needs to bodycheck and spear. He would get killed in the playoffs
Blueger - needs to get healthy so we can get a 5th round pick for him


Our Defence is actually looking pretty good

Buium - Hronek
DPetey - Willander
MPetey - Mancini (Shutdown pairing)
#7 guy -- we are looking for a Schenn or a Cole. A tough veteran fucker who can step into bottom 4 and drop the mitts. If he is good enough then we can move on from Mpetey and carry 2 of these guys.

Forbort - Self solving problem. Could have been that 'Schenn guy', but I think he will be fucked after missing an entire yeaar
Myers - gotta change the culture, and he is moving on this year or next anyways. Doesn't matter to me. At a TDD, every team wants a Giraffe, especially if we retain on him. I would move him this year, as the endless Chaos Giraffe on Glitch that either spins in place or gets becalmed in the middle of nowhere (and only seems to reset with a face off at center ice) -- well, Mancini can use that ice time to develop.

Medvedev
Lankinen (we are kinda stuck with him)
Demko - not sure how to move off him with that injury history and contract, we might be stuck with him as well, but this offseason, I would try and move one of him or Lanks.



[edit] - oh, I forgot - and 2 years of fan chants "SELL THE TEAM"

[Cornuck]

Good idea to start putting this in one thread.

In this plan, who do you see running the show?

[theman]

I am not convinced Garland will be on the Canucks after the TDL.

[Cornuck]

I am not convinced Garland will be on the Canucks after the TDL.

If we are able to get a 1st for him, I'd trade him - but I think he's valuable to the team as one of the vets you keep around for 'culture'. Captain material? If he's sticking around, I could him with the C.

[JelloPuddingPop]

I am not convinced Garland will be on the Canucks after the TDL.

I hope he stays, I wouldn't say anyone is untouchable - if someone offers the moon for him, take it.

But he is such a play driver - if they move on from Hoglander, and get some beef to replace his position - and like MCP says, a rough fucker at 4C - I think having a smaller player like Garland wouldn't be an issue. He doesn't have to go to the net and battle, not his game.

[JelloPuddingPop]

MCP's Post

Great breakdown, I'm on board with pretty much all of it.

Fingers cross we get some hits in the draft - and hopefully that includes some Canadian players.

Going through the rebuild - I hope Mgmt. (whomever they are) get a lot of truculence into the lineup, big mean bastards on 1-2 year deals.

Losing sucks. Going gently into that good night is unforgivable.

Make other team's W's miserable, and I'll watch it, buy tix when down there etc.

Suffer through quiet losses, and getting pushed around without any W's. I'm not interested.

[dbr]

Putting this in the rebuild thread for a fairly specific reason, that I will get to: Canucks coach Foote calls out team for lingering ‘defeated feeling’

The Vancouver Canucks head coach is tired of his players getting frustrated and letting their play slip.

Yes, the team is mired in an extended losing skid, but the Stanley Cup-winning defenceman knows a defeatist attitude won't help things.

“I’ve been watching this for too long," Foote said Monday after the Canucks fell 4-3 to the New York Islanders.

"We’ve got to stop burning ourselves by getting frustrated. We’ve got to stay within the plan. The plan’s working. And it’s our vets. They’ve got to hang in there.”

The problem has plagued the team for years, he said — even before he came to Vancouver as an assistant coach to Rick Tocchet.

There's a bad call — or the opponent scores first — and players begin slamming the gate to the bench, making bad changes or overcomplicating their game.

"It’s something we’ve got to get out of our culture," Foote said.

"It just gets us off our game ... and allows other teams to get just a little bit of energy and come back in the game. It’s something we’ve got to stop.”

Allvin sidestepped questions of a "culture issue" when Quinn Hughes was traded, you may recall.

We're in a place right now where this team has major cap issues (thanks to the current management group), many of which were locked in over the past year while trying to placate a superstar we've known for significantly longer (18 months - if the current management group is to be believed) had his heart elsewhere, and without some deft maneuvering will keep us hamstrung for years - $60m through June 30 2029, $30m through June 30 2032.

Can we expect deft maneuvering from this management group? Can we expect them to acknowledge the culture issue their coach pointed out and actually deal with it? Can we expect to build a contender that includes the players currently signed into the early 2030s? I'm not confident about any of those things.

Personally I think it's crazy to be attempting a rebuild in the hopes that 2-3 years of high draft picks will magically fix all of this. Realistically, that may give us a handful of star players (we've lost four of them in the last two years, will we even come out ahead on this front?) and some added depth and that's about it. Is that going to get us substantially further down the road to contention than we already were with the current group?

To address the question posed in this thread - what should a rebuild look like - to me, it looks like a housecleaning at the management level, an eventual shift to a coaching staff that preaches similar values and system play in the NHL and AHL, a short term (2 seasons) effort to build up the trade value of everyone older than Ohgren/Lekkerimaki with an eye to trading nearly all of them, with a simultaneous effort to root out and trade anyone deemed to be a "culture problem" along with most other vets with any value at all. Starting at the same time we should be looking to take on other teams' cap problems for picks, and moving on any/all expiring contracts for picks as well. It should involve drafting with a particular philosophy that identifies players who will thrive with the aforementioned coaching philosophy, but is hopefully not so dogmatic to overlook potential high reward scenarios. It should involve targeting the early 2030s as the opening of a competitive window, and at that point we should be identifying the major holes in the roster and taking aggressive steps to fill them.

However, given the constraints this franchise operates under, I think the probable best case scenario for Canucks fans is that the current management group attempts a rebuild and fails (stocking the cupboards but not building a winner for whatever reason) and that a complete housecleaning and another few years at the top of the draft (adding the rest of the pieces needed to compete) follows.

[Madcombinepilot]

Good idea to start putting this in one thread.

In this plan, who do you see running the show?

In a perfect world? -whomever the new owner picks for a GM

For a captain? in 5-6 years after Garland?? could be anyone, but needs to fit the criteria - good with the media, level headed, Canadian (preferred - not necessary), and NOT the best player on the team, but MUST be the hardest worker on the team.

[Meds]

Keep in mind, when this current team has had 2 serviceable top 6 centers, they are 9-5-1, so it’s closer than people think. This doesn't have to be a 10 year rebuild, I think it needs planning and a culture change (followed by a coaching or system change)

If culture change is what you identify as the primary need, Petey needs to go.

Other than Boeser, Myers, and Demko, he’s the only guy who has been a part of 6 out 7 years of underachieving. He was at the nexus of the implosion. He seemingly has no interest in leadership, and Foote omitting his name when listing the leadership group did not go unnoticed by many.

[Lancer]

Regardless how many applicable players are on the roster, I don't think this team has earned the right to have a captain - a face of the franchise. They don't have a face of the franchise to sell to the fans outside of Petey - and he's as valuable from a fan-engagement PoV as month-old grease in a concession fryer. Who on that roster can we point to and say, "That guy is going to be part of a core that takes this team to better places."? None of the Minny returns, and no one already on the roster or in Abby, has given anyone that kind of hope so far.

You can throw in a 'culture-carrier' placeholder Captain, but look at that room - what culture is there worth carrying to the next core? Look at them out there.

[Meds]

Essentially what dbr said.

[Meds]

Regardless how many applicable players are on the roster, I don't think this team has earned the right to have a captain - a face of the franchise. They don't have a face of the franchise to sell to the fans outside of Petey - and he's as valuable from a fan-engagement PoV as month-old grease in a concession fryer. Who on that roster can we point to and say, "That guy is going to be part of a core that takes this team to better places."? None of the Minny returns, and no one already on the roster or in Abby, has given anyone that kind of hope so far.

You can throw in a 'culture-carrier' placeholder Captain, but look at that room - what culture is there worth carrying to the next core? Look at them out there.

If the Swedish-American duo at the top of this group draft Stenberg and anoint him the future leader of the team, we may as well just trade all our picks for aging vets and spin the wheels in perpetuity.

I can fully see Allvin pushing for that.

[Topper]

Aqualungs are real estate folks, recall the dealings they did to get condo development adjacent to the Garage.

Would new owners want to own the building as well as the team or be content as renters. Aqualungs would need a long term rental agreement to protect their asset.

Tear down the Sandman, build a new rink and rent the Garage as a practice facility.

With the OEL buyout on the books for the next several years, how much additional (yes I know the OEL buyout drops to $2.1M/yr for it's last four years and the cap may be increasing) can the team take on or be willing to take on. It is a Luongo ball and chain.

Otherwise, model doesn't change from what has been done before. A mix of savvy vet role models, high character place holders and hopeful young guns earning (or not) their stripes.

What has changed is the fan attitude and willingness to look beyond the dust at the end of the broom in the boring factory floors of their lives.

[Madcombinepilot]

Keep in mind, when this current team has had 2 serviceable top 6 centers, they are 9-5-1, so it’s closer than people think. This doesn't have to be a 10 year rebuild, I think it needs planning and a culture change (followed by a coaching or system change)

If culture change is what you identify as the primary need, Petey needs to go.

Other than Boeser, Myers, and Demko, he’s the only guy who has been a part of 6 out 7 years of underachieving. He was at the nexus of the implosion. He seemingly has no interest in leadership, and Foote omitting his name when listing the leadership group did not go unnoticed by many.

For the record, I am not against Petey going. I actually agree, he SHOULD go.. what I am saying is he can't go right now. If this (any) team does not have 2 top 6 centers, they are gonna get caved in. Folded harder than the aunties at a Pow-wow. If we trade Petey, we HAVE to get a top 6 back. Like it or not, even a weak #1 center (65-70 point producer) is better than a pair of #2 centers.

For the last 20-25 games, Petey has been playing like a #1 center again. Love him or hate him, he is all we have. If we deal him, a center has to come back. Rossi and Chytil can't hold down the fort until Cootes arrives.

[UWSaint]

With the rebuild creeping into every thread, Might be nice to try and keep it contained. The goal is to be competitive for a playoff spot in 2029, and make the playoffs in 2030. Make the 2nd-3rd round+ for the next 4-5 years as that's the window. With good drafting, this window can be extended.

I sort of think that the type of players you want/need depend on what the profile is of the core. For example, if only one of TW and Zeev develops into a core player, the one that becomes the core really influences what the complements need to be because one profiles to provide a lot of offense but probably isn't your first unit PK and the other profiles as a two way all situations guy.

I also think the 28-29 "to be competitive" window is slightly optimistic because that season you probably won't even see the Wild 2026 first rounder (if Canucks keep it) in the NHL. Maybe a majority of the top 20 picks from the 2026 draft are likely to be in the league, a majority of the top 10 from the 2027 draft, 2 or 3 of the top 8 from the 2028 draft, etc. There are exceptions to this, but the point is that if the Canucks are stockpiling picks for this draft and the next, the payoff (if there is one) will just barely be coming online and by the 2028-29 season, contributing another question altogether. But as you say, you are really targeting the next season (2029-30).

I think of the 2028-29 roster more as a process of first figuring out who is signed or will still be in RFA and likely NHL ready, then consider everyone else. Once identified, I am giving everyone a marker: keep (unless their hockey skills don't develop/stay or you get a really good offer and there's a decent 2028-29 replacement), hockey decision (which means don't get tied to, let them have their spots taken from them by hungrier players, listen to good offers, but don't add a sweetner to move), move (not necessarily at any cost, but no interest in keeping or re-signing if RFA into 2028-29 season), and Brock Boeser (which means no value to any other teams until he plays well enough to actually be a value to be a good egg with some scoring pop on a rebuilding team who needs good eggs and some goal scoring).

2028-29

EP40 -- hockey decision
Boeser -- Brock Boeser
DeBrusk -- hockey decision
Rossi -- hockey decision
Garland -- hockey decision
Ohgren -- keep
Raty -- hockey decision
Hronek -- keep
MP3 -- move
Zeev -- keep
Willander -- keep
DEP -- hockey decision
Reichel -- move
Cootes -- keep
Sushi -- keep
Mancini -- hockey decision
KK -- hockey decision
Mynio -- hockey decision
Demko -- hockey decision
Lankinen -- move (unless there is no goalie better in the organization when the 2028-29 opens up and he's made it that far)
If any other goalie is NHL ready, I would be somewhat surprised, but hockey decision).

I don't think there are any other signed players under contract in 2028-29 or RFA eligible in 2028-29 that I expect to be NHL ready at that time. I think its too soon to dell how unsigned in the system players might develop -- it is possible a Romani or Dervin or Bjorck might be an NHL ready player, but I am not putting money on it.

Keep list: Ohgren, Sushi, Cootes, Zeev, Willander, Hronek.
Brock Boeser list: Boeser.

Of the keepers, Ohgren is very unlikely to be a core player (but I like what he brings as part of a group to "grow up" in the league), Hronek is the stable vet. Cootes, Zeev, Willander, and Sushi are the best bets to earn core status, with Sushi more likely to be a total bust than a core player but there's still some time (only Hutson has had impressive success among players taken after Sushi in that draft -- its still an under development group). If TW becomes a core player, Hronek might become hockey decision -- but I can also see Hronek, Zeev, and TW all playing exceptionally well in 2028-29, meaning the Canucks identity is a quality defense that provides the secondary scoring (need a goalie for that too!) and the team that gets built is one that takes advantage of that. Only EP40 and maybe Rossi of the "hockey decision" players have the potential to be kept around and also have core player form in 2028-29 -- my guess is that at least one of them is staying because of this reality.

But the bigger point is that if the offers are there for other players that will make the team better in 2028-29 or 2029-30 (and possibly 2030-31 depending on the horizon), they are gone and then these keepers are the only players that you are building a team around.

Not under contract

Of the players who are not under contract and will have hit UFA status by 2028-29, I don't think any player qualifies as a keeper. Here is the limited group that I would identify as "hockey decision," and would likely aim to extend into UFA years for the right price (meaning cheaper than July 1 true free market).

Karlsson

That's it.

Everyone else who is UFA eligible in the 2028-29 season or before and not under contract will either be a placeholder in the top 23 during the next 2 seasons or be moved for some value.

Karlsson is not going to be a core player, of course. His just a complement that doesn't necessarily need recycling.

What's this mean? Given what the Canucks have, the only forwards who might play as "core" in 2028-29 who are in the system currently are EP40, Rossi, Cootes, and Sushi and the only defenseman are Willander and Zeev (maybe we can consider Hronek, but think of him as an "outer core/primary complement" guy at best. (A healthy Demko, which is sort of a unicorn, would also count). None of these guys are sure things to be playing at "core" level in 2028-29. ("Core" I define as the players who you can potentially build a Stanley Cup Champion around); I am not certain any have more than a 50% chance (but I think it is a greater than 50% chance one of the defensemen will). And while it is possible that some asset pulls a Point or Kucherov or is a Stone-like later bloomer, I think this shows that the Canucks MUST hit a home run in the 2026 draft to have any chance of being on a "competitive" (and with a future brighter as opposed to shoring up medocrity) 2028-29. It might even take a home run and a bases clearing double in the draft.

Rebuilds are hard. This is why owners loathe them. When you break it down like this, you start seeing how optimistic 2028-29 competitive and with a bullet is, and when you start imagining 2030-31 (two season later), you realize that almost everything is purely speculative. Which is what rebuilds essentially are until they take form.