Assessing the Pacific

[UWSaint]

More can happen between now and free agency, but I thought it would be good to have a thread that take a look at where things stand in the Pacific Division. Bottom line? The Kings have done enough bad things this offseason to risk their spot, Vegas is the team to beat, and I'm not ready to jump on the Ducks bandwagon.



Vegas: (1st Place, 110 points). Added Marner, Sissons, Lauzon; Lost Pietrangelo*, Hague, Pearson, Roy.

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you have to admire that the Golden Knights are never satisfied with being good and are always scheming to improve. They got the only free agent in the class (that didn’t re-sign) worth chasing, and while those they lost provided some quality, they were role players except Pietrangelo, and Pietrangelo is not who he was. More important that who you lose is what is left, and that’s a team that’s skilled AND fairly tough AND deep in all positions. Goaltending might be the weakness, but that’s relative. Hill is at least a league average starter and has won a Cup. And while the Knights are despised for their players’ preternatural ability to marry their injuries with team cap needs, the fact they have so many good players on good contracts is a testament to being smarter than the typical front office. And then there’s windfall value from guys like Dorofeyev.

The risk here is age and injury. But they should repeat as division champs and quite possibly compete for the President's Trophy (110-120 points), and if Marner can finally show in the playoffs, Vegas has to be considered a main challenger to Florida.

LA: (2d place, 105 points). Added: Armia (LOL!), Ceci (LOL!), Dumoulin (chuckle), Anton Forsberg, Perry; Lost: Gavrikov, Jeannot, Rittich, Spence

Welcome back to the western conference, Ken Holland. On the plus side for the Kings, they retained Kuzmenko, who hopefully isn’t porking up, and if they have the Corey Perry card, which is like drawing the ice cream float card right off the bat in Candyland. The downside is that exchanging Gavrikov and Spence for Ceci and Dumolin is sure to send them back to the gooey gumdrops.

There’s a lot of age in this group, but to be fair, there are also young players that can improve and take over a lot of productivity that is being provided by guys on the wrong side of 30, no, wait 35. Byfield, Clarke, Laferriere. And Kempe is an underrated star.

Thing is, even with the age, all the Kings needed to be a solid favorite to finish in the top 3 was to not make moves that made them worse. And then they did just that – made moves that made them worse. I’m not writing them off, but they aren’t playoff locks anymore. If Doughty continues to decline and Clarke still has much to learn, the solid-but-unspectacular Mikey Anderson is their best defenseman. That’s not good, especially if Kuemper regresses to the mean.

I think 92-102 points is where they will be.

Edmonton (3rd Place, 101 points). Added: Lazar, Mangiapane, Howard; Lost: Arvidsson, Brown, Klingberg, Skinner, Kane, Perry.

Raises to Draisatl and Bouchard meant all the Oilers could do this offseason was cap manage. When you’re biggest move is re-signing Frederic…. To be sure, they moved the right guys out given their expected value/contracts, but there is no way they’ve improved. They’ve lost depth and toughness, and most importantly, they haven’t addressed the goaltending. Mangiapane – wasn’t he demoted in Washington because Beau2 outplayed him? I don’t hate the player, but Mangiapane’s 35 goal season in Calgary a few years back is a mirage; he’s never had 20 goals other than that year and he really is best viewed as a middle six guy who can PK and forecheck.

Absent injuries to their core, they should still be a lock for the playoffs. Draisaitl and McDavid are that good and can play a lot to offset some of the depth issues. And the Pacific Division is that mediocre. But this team is far more fragile than last year. They may not be able to afford further slides in key core complements RNH and Hyman because I don’t see where else the production can come from. They might even need Evan Bouchard to become good at defense, too, with Ekholm aging and Nurse settled into mediocre middle pairing status.

I think they'll coast through the season, applying gas when needed and end up around 100 points. But I don't expect another playoff run.

Flames (4th place, 96 points). Added no one. Lost no one, aka Vladar.

On paper, I can’t figure out how this team got 96 points last season. Kadri played out of his mind, Huberdeau found a time machine (though really isn’t that old), and Coronato emerged as a nice young contributor. Weegar and Andersson provide skill and stability, and Bahl provide himself to be a worthwhile part of the Markstrom trade. Still, this looks like a team 80-85 point team to me, and overperformance more than youth coming of age drove that point total too much for my liking.

The Flames have been very quiet this offseason, which I think is completely prudent. I don’t know if its because they believe in the plan they have in place or because they don’t believe it – that they didn’t want to add this group because they weren’t sure. In the best case scenario, Wolf can improve further in get into the “one of the best goalies in the league” discussion, Bahl can become that reliable long reach stay at home every team is looking for, Andersson will play well and yield them a good trade haul, Coronato will become a true first liner, Farabee will show offensive skills and deliver on the promises of his early NHL career (he’s still young), and Frost will be a swiss army knife competent in all things player. But do I think this will happen? No. But Calgary’s management is in “hockey position,” ready to react to the play from a place of balance and stability. That’s sort of a win, though it might not be given last year’s success. Which they won’t duplicate IMO.

Expected points: 80-90.

Vancouver (5th place, 90 points). Added Kane; Lost Suter, Juulsen, Joshua.

There’s a lot from me on this board, so I’ll keep it short. If 96 points was the Flames at their ceiling, 90 points should be the floor for the Canucks, because they got that getting numerous pumpkin performances, battling injury, and lack of team cohesion. All of their important moves happened mid-season last year. With health, the team has the potential to be among the hardest to score against, and has enough bounce back candidates for some optimism the offense will improve. They are the most likely team in the Pacific to take LA’s spot. If they play boring and disciplined hockey and have good enough special teams, they should be a bubble team all year. The biggest risk factor beyond last year’s pumpkins rotting further and injury? A new coach, and the risk he’s not ready.

Expected points: 90-100.

Anaheim (6th place, 80 points). Added: Granlund, Husso, Kreider, Mrazek, Poehling; Lost: Gibson, Zegras.

The Ducks are an “it” team at the moment, but it still is a team of “mights” and “potential.” With the new additions, they have enough offense such that Carlsson, Gauthier, and McTavish don’t have to reach maximum velocity, but while all of the attention is on these grade A young forwards, it really is the defense that is holding the Ducks back. Here, too, there’s considerable potential: Mintykokov, Zellweger, LaCombe. But I don’t think its close enough to prime to be anything other than a relative liability. (It doesn’t help that Trouba and Gudas are pylons at this points). If I were Verbeek, I would have much rather looked for a Kreider equivalent on D (I guess maybe that’s what Trouba was?). The big regret should be moving Fowler. Wait, they had what they need: Cam Fowler. Well, they still have 40% or so of his salary…. Well at least they got a big return for Zegras. What’s that? They didn’t?

Still, I don’t think they are drawing to the inside straight. Its more like drawing to an outside straight. Maybe even with a flush option, too, given Coach Q. I don’t expect them to be there this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were. Still, I think they're more likely a 90 point team than a playoff team. Expected points (85-95).

Seattle (7th place, 76 points). Added: Gaudreau, Lindgren, Marchment; Lost: Burokovsky, Eyssimont.

To me, Seattle behaves like the Benning-era Canucks. When there’s a little room for premature optimism, they grab players in free agency for too steep a price that are not likely to provide that value but should make the team meaninglessly better. Stephenson and Montour a season ago (with no movement or no trade clauses!); this season it is Lindgren, who never gets that contract in a world with a deeper group of free agents, and Marchment – who, while on a decent contract for what he is, will not move the needle. And so there’s a constant cycle of contracts that you’d prefer not to have. The team isn’t bad, but it can’t be optimized.

Time will tell whether Kakko is a Baerstchi-level reclamation project or something better, but there is a story to tell here involving the somewhat disappointing Beniers, Kakko, Wright, Niemo, maybe even Catton where this team surprises in a good way. Unlike the Benning-era Canucks, it’s a good prospect system (but probably could be better), and they have a lot of draft capital. But its also a terribly imbalanced system – they are immune to drafting defense in the first round (Ryker Evans, though, appears to have been a good pick).

While there’s a story for success here, I think they should have planned for failure – not added players to get them a few marginal and meaningless points.

Expected Points (72-82).

San Jose. (8th place, 52 points). Added: Gaudette, Orlov, Klingberg, Kurashev, Misa, Nedeljkovic, Leddy; Lost: Vlasic

San Jose’s offseason strategy sort of looked Chicago’s last year when they were adding some mid-level NHL talent so that the young prospects would at least be surrounded by more NHL players. The most significant thing is that additions to the blueline. While it lacks a top defenseman, at least there are NHL players, which is more than last year’s team had.

They aren’t as “hot” as Anaheim because there’s a perception the young talent is further away, and that is probably correct. But it is a very talented group, and if the goaltending is decent, I could see them being last year’s Anaheim – better than you thought for a bit, enough to see the potential, but not enough to really make a serious battle for a playoff spot. But there will be more to do next year. After this season, only Orlov is signed among the D they brought it (including Liljegren and Desharnais last year), and they don’t have enough internal options, IMO. Mukhamadullin has got every physical attribute you’d want, but his NHL exposure last year wasn’t successful and he’s already 23. Dickinson has excellent potential – I sort of wonder whether San Jose will designate him as their AHL player this season (and keep Misa with the big club). At any rate, it’s a bright future, but the future isn’t now.

Expected points (65-75).

[Cornuck]

Thanks UW - fairly good assessment.

Vegas always seems to hold the cards in the Pacific. As for LA - I keep waiting for them to age out, maybe this is the year? I can see the Oil overtaking them.

Not sure how you put the Flames ("Expected points: 80-90.") above the Canucks ("Expected points: 90-100."). But there are few giant question marks surrounding our team.

The rest? Who cares as long as they're fighting for lottery picks.

[Meds]

Thanks UW - fairly good assessment.

Vegas always seems to hold the cards in the Pacific. As for LA - I keep waiting for them to age out, maybe this is the year? I can see the Oil overtaking them.

Not sure how you put the Flames ("Expected points: 80-90.") above the Canucks ("Expected points: 90-100."). But there are few giant question marks surrounding our team.

The rest? Who cares as long as they're fighting for lottery picks.

He put them in order of their 2024-25 finish and capped his expectation of each with his predicted 2025-26 finish.

[BCExpat]

More can happen between now and free agency, but I thought it would be good to have a thread that take a look at where things stand in the Pacific Division. Bottom line? The Kings have done enough bad things this offseason to risk their spot, Vegas is the team to beat, and I'm not ready to jump on the Ducks bandwagon.




Flames (4th place, 96 points). Added no one. Lost no one, aka Vladar.

On paper, I can’t figure out how this team got 96 points last season. Kadri played out of his mind, Huberdeau found a time machine (though really isn’t that old), and Coronato emerged as a nice young contributor. Weegar and Andersson provide skill and stability, and Bahl provide himself to be a worthwhile part of the Markstrom trade. Still, this looks like a team 80-85 point team to me, and overperformance more than youth coming of age drove that point total too much for my liking.

The Flames have been very quiet this offseason, which I think is completely prudent. I don’t know if its because they believe in the plan they have in place or because they don’t believe it – that they didn’t want to add this group because they weren’t sure. In the best case scenario, Wolf can improve further in get into the “one of the best goalies in the league” discussion, Bahl can become that reliable long reach stay at home every team is looking for, Andersson will play well and yield them a good trade haul, Coronato will become a true first liner, Farabee will show offensive skills and deliver on the promises of his early NHL career (he’s still young), and Frost will be a swiss army knife competent in all things player. But do I think this will happen? No. But Calgary’s management is in “hockey position,” ready to react to the play from a place of balance and stability. That’s sort of a win, though it might not be given last year’s success. Which they won’t duplicate IMO.

Expected points: 80-90.

Well, they got 96 points because they have found a great young goalie in Dustin Wolf. Plain and simple - he stole a lot of games for them that they had no business winning. Also, the team had excellent structure and chemistry, which went a long way to overcoming their obvious shortfalls.

I don't expect them to repeat 96 points this season. Hopefully they fall back to being in the bottom 5 or 10 in the league and get some decent draft picks.

[UWSaint]

Thanks UW - fairly good assessment.

Vegas always seems to hold the cards in the Pacific. As for LA - I keep waiting for them to age out, maybe this is the year? I can see the Oil overtaking them.

Not sure how you put the Flames ("Expected points: 80-90.") above the Canucks ("Expected points: 90-100."). But there are few giant question marks surrounding our team.

The rest? Who cares as long as they're fighting for lottery picks.

Mëds noted the order.

Thing about LA is that they did have a plan to transition from the old guys to new blood, but their draft record was only okay given the draft capital they used and then they sort of abandoned a lot of the youth. To be sure, there's time (and still potential) for Byfield to become what Kopitar has been and Clarke's really just getting started, did well with Doughty out, and is already a pretty good player, but I am not certain I see him being one of those dozen/fifteen defensemen in the league that every team craves (and the Canucks never had until Hughes). I'm thinking his peak is more like Letang's peak. What kept them afloat is that Kopitar has remained so good, Doughty's remained pretty effective, Kempe went from good to really good, and they traded for a goal scorer in Fiala, whose been as advertised but at significant cost more obvious in hindsight.

But with these D moves this offseason, they may have just changed the construction of this roster to the point where there could be a big fall off, especially if Doughty is getting too long in the tooth and Kuemper regresses. Ceci is bad at hockey and Dumoulin not much better, and I think they may find themselves struggling with controlled zone exits the way the Canucks struggled the first part of this past season.

And it didn't have to be this way -- they've traded Durzi, Faber, Spence (though Spence isn't great, he's a different form of bottom pairing guy still young).

Blake is gone for a reason -- LA's had success, but almost in spite of the GM. It's not just moving out talented D, it was the Dubois acquisition, in which he overpaid (but was lucky as hell to get out of by getting a distressed asset who recovered). Its quite amazing to think of where LA might have gone had they actually won a trade.

Holland? Well, its like he was working off scouting reports from 7 years ago and he's taken the age risk and leaned in.

And the team? Well, they must be experiencing a Leaves-level lack of confidence. This playoff was the worst, because they absolutely blew it after having the Oilers down 2 games with a lead in game 3.

[UWSaint]

Well, they got 96 points because they have found a great young goalie in Dustin Wolf. Plain and simple - he stole a lot of games for them that they had no business winning. Also, the team had excellent structure and chemistry, which went a long way to overcoming their obvious shortfalls.

I don't expect them to repeat 96 points this season. Hopefully they fall back to being in the bottom 5 or 10 in the league and get some decent draft picks.

It will be difficult for a team that does more things right than wrong (maximizing their talent) and has very good goaltending to land a top 10 pick without lottery luck.

They've done a lot "right" since Tkachuk made it clear he wanted out, but I don't see that game changer on the team or in the system. Maybe I am undervaluing Coronato and Perek and Gridin's potential, but I see a lot of middle of the lineup type players on the team and in the system, and not stars. Sometimes you have to do more things wrong than right to get that guy....

[Chef Boi RD]

Central
Tier 1 - Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado
Tier 2 - Minnesota, St. Louis, Utah
Tier 3 - Nashville, Chicago

Pacific
Tier 1 - Vegas, Edmonton, L.A.
Tier 2 - Calgary, Vancouver, Anaheim, Seattle
Tier 3 - San Jose

The tier 2 group of 6 teams will be fighting it out for the two wild card spots in the WC.

The tier 3 group will be in the Gavin McKenna hunt.

Utah will be the biggest riser in the WC for 2025/26

If Petey continues to be scooter boy, we’ll be in the hunt for the 10th overall pick in the 2026 draft if the draft pick hawkers - Allvin and Rutherford don’t trade it.

[BCExpat]

Well, they got 96 points because they have found a great young goalie in Dustin Wolf. Plain and simple - he stole a lot of games for them that they had no business winning. Also, the team had excellent structure and chemistry, which went a long way to overcoming their obvious shortfalls.

I don't expect them to repeat 96 points this season. Hopefully they fall back to being in the bottom 5 or 10 in the league and get some decent draft picks.

It will be difficult for a team that does more things right than wrong (maximizing their talent) and has very good goaltending to land a top 10 pick without lottery luck.

They've done a lot "right" since Tkachuk made it clear he wanted out, but I don't see that game changer on the team or in the system. Maybe I am undervaluing Coronato and Perek and Gridin's potential, but I see a lot of middle of the lineup type players on the team and in the system, and not stars. Sometimes you have to do more things wrong than right to get that guy....

You are right - they do not have a game changer in their system. They need to have a bad season next year to get a high draft pick. It's actually more likely that they will be a bottom 5 team than competing for a playoff spot. We'll see what Conroy does with trading off vets such as Andersson and possibly Kadri and Coleman. Wolf probably won't repeat last season. Bottom line, they need a 1C and at least one more sniper. On Calpuck, I saw some chatter about McTavish being available and some of the insiders on those boards mentioned that Calgary was going to offer Zary and a 1st - that would give them a potential 1C. Also, Dallas really wants Andersson - possibly a package with Andersson +++ for Robertson. I'm skeptical, but those are the types of trades they need to make, in addition to one or two very high draft picks.

[Meds]

Central
Tier 1 - Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado
Tier 2 - Minnesota, St. Louis, Utah
Tier 3 - Nashville, Chicago

Pacific
Tier 1 - Vegas, Edmonton, L.A.
Tier 2 - Calgary, Vancouver, Anaheim, Seattle
Tier 3 - San Jose

I think you're close.

Central

Tier 1 - Winnipeg, Colorado
Tier 2 - Dallas, Minnesota, Utah
Tier 3 - St. Louis Nashville, Chicago

The Central is the most volatile.

Winnipeg and Colorado are certainly the top dogs in the Central.

Dallas is getting a bit long in the tooth, and their signing of Rantanen is great, but I still think he's going to be a streaky player without a C like Nate. Wyatt Johnson could take a big step this year though, he's the right age to do that. I'd say they are the most likely of those tier 1 teams to drop into tier 2 which will make that a very interesting fight for playoff spots.

St. Louis could drop back to that 3rd tier, but they won't go quietly.....I just don't think they have a game breaker in any position and a few of their guys are getting up there.

Utah looks poised to start to pull the shit show that was Arizona together and start to make progress.

Nashville's season last year was a complete mess, they underachieved like few teams before them. They should have been much better than they were. I'll expect them to be fighting their way in with the second tier.


Pacific
Tier 1 - Vegas
Tier 2 - Edmonton, LA
Tier 3 - Vancouver, Seattle, Anaheim, Calgary, San Jose

In the Pacific I think Vegas is the only true Tier 1. Edmonton did nothing this off-season besides cap management to accommodate Bouchard's bloat and prepare themselves to extend McDavid next year. Their goaltending is a tire fire. For them to miss the playoffs would be insane, but they are definitely not a top-2 lock anymore.

I agree with UW's take on LA. A bit long in the tooth and will need too many things to go right and too many young players to take significant next steps.....as well as hope Kuemper doesn't regress towards the mean.

Vancouver goes as Petey goes. He alone can make the difference between the Canucks being a 3rd Tier flounder or a 2nd Tier horse that has Edmonton and LA keeping a close eye on their rear-view mirror lest they be passed.

I think Seattle and Anaheim will be the closest dogfight this year in our division

Calgary is going to fall off a cliff and San Jose is going to begin their ascent.

[Chef Boi RD]

Yeah no, San Jose is in tier 3 by themselves in the Pacific. Their improvement won’t start until the season after next. Still too young.

My tier 2 in the pacific is solid and will be batting in the mushy middle all season

My tier 1 in the pacific ain’t changing

Dallas ain’t going nowhere, they will remain tier 1 in the central

Chicago and Nashville own tier 3 in the central and no way St. Louis is in that category. My central mushy middle is solid and will remain.

Vancouver could easily drop to tier 3 in the pacific if Demko continues to battle injuries, Petey remains to be the scooter boy and god forbid Hughes gets injured.

[Madcombinepilot]

Vancouver could easily drop to tier 3 in the pacific if Demko continues to battle injuries, Petey remains to be the scooter boy and god forbid Hughes gets injured.

pretty sure if you dump the top 3 players or 30ish million into injuries, any team will drop to tear 3

[Cousin Strawberry]

Van- tier 1

Seattle, vegas- tier 2

Coilers, Lames, California scrubbery- tier 3

[Ronning's Ghost]

Sometimes you have to do more things wrong than right to get that guy....

Or a team could actually recognize that they don't have the horses, and deliberately choose to enter a rebuilding phase.

Or at least, that seems like it should be theoretically possible.

[Chef Boi RD]

Vancouver could easily drop to tier 3 in the pacific if Demko continues to battle injuries, Petey remains to be the scooter boy and god forbid Hughes gets injured.

pretty sure if you dump the top 3 players or 30ish million into injuries, any team will drop to tear 3

Not necessarily. As Jannik Hansen says, Vancouver has one foundational player - Hughes, and that’s it. We are too thin up top to withstand a hit to the top end.

[Tciso]

Van- tier 1

+1