Canucks News N Notes 24-25

[Cousin Strawberry]

Maybe pairing Soucy with a more reliable puck mover like Fil the thrill will help him find his game. He really was a decent defender last year. He played some tough minutes for us and whatever he's lost can't be that far away

Let's pray to the Martian microbes for Carson to find his giggity

[Carl Yagro]

Hey looky that, we're out of the playoffs.

Start panicking, Canuck Nation. Baldies working OT...

[Madcombinepilot]

Maybe pairing Soucy with a more reliable puck mover like Fil the thrill will help him find his game. He really was a decent defender last year. He played some tough minutes for us and whatever he's lost can't be that far away

Let's pray to the Martian microbes for Carson to find his giggity

Myers has not looked terrible with Hughes the last few games.. if Hronek can pair well with Soucy- and get Soucy back to last years levels (Soucy’s play level has come up last 6-7 games as well), that’s a decent top 4.

[UWSaint]

Hey looky that, we're out of the playoffs.

Start panicking, Canuck Nation. Baldies working OT...

PANIC!!!!!

They are, of course, no more out of the playoffs today as they were in the playoffs last week.

I saw some article headline on TSN that was something to the effect of "now that we know 7 teams are in the western conference playoffs, who will be last team in. This is an absolutely silly way to frame something. Is it really not possible for Colorado or LA -- or even Minnesota or Dallas for that matter -- to have a cold spell and/or get bitten by injuries and play at a pace the Canucks have played at and for the Canucks (or another bubble team) to play at the pace these teams have played at? (To be fair, some of Colorado's placement is injuries and part was that they didn't work out their goaltending until now -- though its still potentially suspect goaltending).

I think the Canucks' roster is pretty good, but not great, and not good enough to handle the following and be expected to be a comfortable in-the-playoffs team:

[*]About 20% of games missed from last year's top 3 forwards,
[*]Half the season without underrated Hronek, who really transformed last year's defense by doing everything it was hoped OEL would do
[*]Half the season without last year's breakout Joshua
[*]A high caliber starting goalie starting and finishing 1 out of every 6 games.

It is *not* a deep enough/skilled enough team for that. Just take the goalie -- I know that the board loves Lankinen, but he is putting in league average save percentage numbers for a starter. He's right in the middle of the pack among goalies who've played about half their teams' games (or more). Terrific for a backup -- but to go from good to very good, the team needs consistently above average to great goaltending and the one capable of providing that hasn't played much and certainly isn't up to that caliber because of the injuries and irregular workload.

And of course Demko's not the only one who hasn't cooked this season -- stars Miller and EP40 are nothing like last year through January, and provide-quality-depth complements Joshua and Hoglander have turned into replacement level players (so far). Add to that, a team that wins 54% of its games decided in regulation is winning 27% of its games decided in the arcade game that is NHL's overtime/shootout -- and they've played more of these games than anyone else. That's a meaningful number of points below expectation.

This isn't an "excuse" post -- its more to say that factoring in some reasonable regression from last years' overperformances, before calculating in how some of those players have underperformed compared to what might be reasonably projected -- I would not have been surprised to see the Canucks where they are because their ceiling isn't terribly high without Hronek and Demko.

I actually think that they are where they are is a testament to the offseason signings -- Sherwood's provided the secondary scoring on top of the hitting, DeBrusk has scored in bunches and will go to dirty places to do it, Lankinen provided league average starting goaltending as a backup -- hard to imagine Silovs doing that the way he looked. The GM has sort of saved the Canucks' bacon when it comes to being able to at least tread water so far this season. From here on in, it mostly comes down to a majority of those key players who you depend on who were either hurt (Demko, Hronek) or missing a bit of time and otherwise sulky (Miller, EP40), playing better from here on out. If you have that an can find more tape to tape passes, this team can certainly put together a second half that is similar to their first half put together by teams ahead of them in the standings.

[2Fingers]

Well said UW.

I wondered if last seasons success is actually a hindrance to the team this year with the same expectations. Last year too many players had career years and should not have expected to to occur again this season.

Of Canucks are out of a playoff spot come TDD I say they move Laniken. He might be the biggest trading asset they have. With the season he is having I assume $3M will be his asking price and the Nucks can’t afford that.

UW, what about Tocket, how does he play in this? His coaching style, has it changed or the players not executing?

[theman]

Well said UW.

I wondered if last seasons success is actually a hindrance to the team this year with the same expectations. Last year too many players had career years and should not have expected to to occur again this season.

Of Canucks are out of a playoff spot come TDD I say they move Laniken. He might be the biggest trading asset they have. With the season he is having I assume $3M will be his asking price and the Nucks can’t afford that.

UW, what about Tocket, how does he play in this? His coaching style, has it changed or the players not executing?

I would re-sign him for 2 x 2 but that is about it. Maybe a little more but not 3 mil per.

Agree that he could be a good TDL asset to move if the Canucks are out of it by then.

[Carl Yagro]

Tongue-in-cheek, UW. Tongue-in-cheek. Y'know, I can't go around plastering this entire board with winkies.

As usual, a well-thought out post... BUTT, you know they are absolutely panicking out there. The owner has probably been poking around for weeks. Another rough stretch and it could be too tough to overcome the gap.

Me? I'm not panicking. Haven't been that interested and only watched parts of a few games. Just here to hang out with peeps and their footwear shooting the shit.

[Blob Mckenzie]

Stupid Baldies.

[Carl Yagro]

Yah, stoopid...

[UWSaint]

UW, what about Tocket, how does he play in this? His coaching style, has it changed or the players not executing?

I think this team is playing more like last seasons team during the final couple months and playoffs than how the team played in the first part of last year. And while that style was almost as successful as the pre-ASG Canucks, there was less margin for error. The team collapsed way more, its controlled exits went way down, it began playing like a team that was more concerned with minimizing quality chances against than making the opponent concerned about neutralizing the Canucks. Its almost exactly the pattern that Greene's post-season season Canucks fell into and never really got out of. Its playing not to lose instead of playing to win.

This was and remains a terrible development. When Boudreau was in purgatory and Allvin and JR crapped on him while he was still the coach, one of the things they harped on was zone exits, precision with passes, more puck support. This requires spacing. And when Tockey took over, you started to see a lot more of this. But post-ASG last year, this became less and less prominent.

Part of this for this season is personnel. The fact is, Noah Juulsen and Desharnais can't make a tape to tape pass to save their lives not matter how short it is, and Soucy isn't really that far ahead of them and Myers isn't that far ahead of him. If you can't make those plays precisely, Gudbransoning/Schenning it out of the zone becomes a more attractive option because generating speed into and through the neutral zone requires precise passing to players in flight. During those Greene days, I was always pointing out that this isn't just the defensemen -- the forwards must be in the right position to receive passes with speed -- and you can never do that when there is total collapse as a defensive zone game plan because transitions require some spacing and movement.

But is this collapse mentality by design -- making the most of a defensive corps who outside of Hughes and the injured Hronek is deficient transitioning from defense to offense? I don't know -- and I don't know that Tockey tells the players, but what I've noticed over time is that Tockey's press conferences are often reactive to the most recent bad thing. Once you start being reactive to the most recent bad thing, you start trying to teach all things, you stop prioritizing, you start playing the game of how to not be bad instead of the game of how to make the other team look bad.

But the fact is, all hockey "systems" are tradeoffs -- as are the skill set of all but the most talented players. And so emphasizing everything is emphasizing nothing. It's chasing your tail. Maybe a better analogy, it is a giant bean bag chair. If you adopt one approach, you are going to squash beans where you sit, and more beans will shift to the places in the chair where your body is not. And so if the response is, well, there's too many beans over there and you shift your body, the beans will put pressure on a different place, creating a new problem. If you emphasize cluttering up the middle to cure the problem of too many cross ice passes, you reduce your breakout options. If you go for a defense with lots of length and get cheap length -- that cheap length typically correlates with below average passing or skating (or both). Just because all other things being equal, long guys are better than mid sized or short guys, so for mid sized or short guys to make it to the NHL they have to do something else better than average, and that something else is often skating or passing.

Fact is the team's identity is less and less clear as Tockey's been here, and that's not a good thing.

The other thing I haven't liked about how this team has played (and I think it comes from Tockey, but I am not sure), is the zone entries. I've said it a thousand times here, but I'll say it again. Dumping the puck in (except to facilitate a change) is the play when there are no other options; it should never be confused for a strategy. The best case scenario for every zone entry is control with speed. Next best is area chips and 50/50 races. Worst always is dump, 20/80 lose possession, and let's get it back.

You know how you know that dumping and chasing is the worst way to enter a zone? Because every team that plays good neutral zone defense (and I'd count the Canucks in this category) is playing a system designed to minimize the chance of controlled entry with speed.....

This year's Canucks seem to dump almost as a priority play. Bad.

If you asked me what the biggest deficit on the team is right now, I would say precision. That's not a coach thing, but systems and approaches could increase opportunities to make precise plays or decrease them. And that's the catch-22. If Tockey's assessed it all and has concluded the Canucks personnel lack the precision skills to play the kind of game that benefits from that, then you don't build around an approach that depends on it. And so the Canucks bang the puck off the glass and then chase the puck. Which really is a bit of a yawn, no?

[Meds]

UW’s post is why I don’t see this team as a contender, and I don’t see it as the right mix to be one with just some peripheral tinkering…..will be thrilled if they flip the switch and prove me wrong.

When 2 of your core guys aren’t going, any team is going to struggle…..when those guys are your 1A+B centers it will take a lot for a team to succeed. We’ve seen the inconsistency before from Pettersson, seeing it for this long from Miller is concerning.

The flip side of that is that if Miller and Pettersson flip that switch and get back to pumping in 90 point season production the W/L/OT numbers that UW posted will shift and this team is competing for the division and top 3 in the conference.

Core players need to be your consistency. So the question begs itself: are these the guys you want to build around?

You all know my answer when it comes to 11.6. I am beginning to ask the same question about JTM.

[Cornuck]

You all know my answer when it comes to 11.6. I am beginning to ask the same question about JTM.

Yes - UW's post has some great points (as usual) - and the drop in D talent has to be the biggest difference between this year's team and last year's.

As for the team's core, that has also changed in 12 months. I only see 1 core player on this team right now. The 2 Centres you mention can't be counted on anymore. Demko is proving himself to be injury-prone, and although he hasn't played enough to round 'into form', Lankinen has shown that he can do pretty much what Demko can do (minus a few over-the-top game-stealing games a year).

Once again, we're back in Canuckland and looking for a way out.

[Meds]

On your second post UW…..

Your assessment of Juulsen, Desharnais, Soucy, and Myers, ability to make a tape-to-tape pass is bang on. When coupling that thought with your conclusion that the Canucks lack precision, is it not then fair to say that the roster construction has missed the mark badly because there is no way to enter the zone with control if control is being lost, or being only tentatively maintained, on the first pass?

We’ve seen 10 defensemen suit up for the Canucks this season. All but two of them have played more than 15 games. Only 2 of them can reliably make that pass that transitions with speed and control from defense to offense. As you note, one of those guys has missed a chunk of games. So where we have a group that only 20% of the players can effectively do what is needed, and we’ve had to operate without one of them for half of the season to date, clearly there’s a malfunction in the construction of this group.

Is the solution to pull the plug on this perceived window for the short-term and try and reopen it over the balance of this season and next year?

The argument of constructing around positional priorities is well established…..

1C
1G
1D
Top-4
Top-6
The rest

Are the Canucks in a position, thanks to internal personnel conflicts and media firebombers, where they should blow up the their top-6 in order to replace some of ground floor’s load bearing walls while their currency has not devalued too much?

Even with 9 and 40 getting along and producing, if you can’t get the puck out of the zone every time your top pairing is off the ice, the team’s wheels are just spinning.

[Meds]

You all know my answer when it comes to 11.6. I am beginning to ask the same question about JTM.

Yes - UW's post has some great points (as usual) - and the drop in D talent has to be the biggest difference between this year's team and last year's.

As for the team's core, that has also changed in 12 months. I only see 1 core player on this team right now. The 2 Centres you mention can't be counted on anymore. Demko is proving himself to be injury-prone, and although he hasn't played enough to round 'into form', Lankinen has shown that he can do pretty much what Demko can do (minus a few over-the-top game-stealing games a year).

Once again, we're back in Canuckland and looking for a way out.

Unfortunately you need those one or two game-stealing saves in the post season. Unfortunately Demko hasn’t been a guy we can count on to be available for that since the Edmonton bubble.

[2Fingers]

As UW said It’s not one thing but many things that are in a mess with the team. It starts with management and what they did in the off season.

If they had a better D that could make a damn pass both EP and JT IMHO would have more points. The style of RT seems to have changed but that is probably due to a necessity vs wanting to based upon what he had to play with. QH wasn’t really gone that long and they should have been able to maintain 500 hockey with both him and Hronek gone.

This season is a write off, move on from Myers and Hoglander and any other drift wood on the team. Reset and concentrate in the off season to get players who meet the teams needs, if it ain’t RT then move on from him too.

It has been 100 years without a cup I’m too fucking old for this crap.