Canucks News 2.0

[Carl Yagro]

Good to see you Carl…

Thanks, Rats.

Always a pleasure to talk with you here... even though you are a man of few words.

[donlever]

3 words.

4 3 and lame.

[Carl Yagro]

C'mon. Rats might have a small um, vocabulary, but his punctuation and ellipsis are usually on point(s).

4 – 3 and lame ...

[rats19]

and nucks…

[UWSaint]

There is A LOT to talk about with this team as the current season ends and the off season commences.

Feels to me we are on the precipice, a knifes edge if you will, and this thing could go either way with the current off season being the impetus of impending change.

I don't think they are on a knife's edge. To me, I think the Canucks are building something consistently playoff bubbly--especially if they take the advice of many posters--with limited upside and downside.

What I like: I think the defense is good, perhaps very good, and has in system support to get better. For years it was the thing in most need of repair, and moves to repair it not only failed -- Gudbranson and OEL were the biggest moves -- but cost the team significantly. Compare that with Hronek and MP3. For a long time, I advocated that all of this fiddling with 5-7 guys was silly, because the marginal differences aren't that significant. But if you can improve the top 4, it goes miles because these guys will play more than a third of the game. I know that a lot of people wanted to keep Z -- I wouldn't have minded (a lot wanted to keep Schenn and some Cole -- I would mind) -- but I disagree that Z is anything better than a 4-5, and I believe strongly MP3 is an upgrade. No panic, good positioning, and more precise puck movement -- the Canucks aren't the fastest group, precision is key to pace (now they just need to catch pucks without bobbles....) To those that complain about what that it cost most of Miller to get him, Miller was moved for independent reasons.

What I don't like: While the Canucks ended last season with a good core and okay complements, they end this season with a deeper set of complements and a decimated core. This is exactly the wrong way to build a winner. In less than a year, management gave out decent change to players that are secondary complements -- O'Connor, Hoglander, Joshua, Lankinen -- or if they were to be relied on, they aren't players winning teams rely on. (DeBrusk is more of a primary complement -- I have some complaints about this player, but he is going to provide secondary scoring and that's something). Individually, all the signings are probably justifiable -- but together? Not so much -- particularly where the Canucks have a few lower ceiling prospects who can adequately fill spots at near minimum. For all the reasons the punch from improving the Top 3 defense is an order of magnitude greater than improving the bottom set, the bump from bottom 6 players -- especially wingers! -- is like winning $2 on a $1 scratch off. Its hardly worth going back to the gas station. These players will help keep the Canucks out of the bottom if the rest of the wheels come off (imagine Hughes injured for half the year, Demko injured again (or traded....), Boeser not resigned or replaced, Sushi not ready for another year), but they don't really help the team take off and the combined salaries (and blocking of roster spots for a guy who might otherwise make a stepwise improvement) acts as a drag.

The decimation of the core was largely outside of management's control. Largely overlooked in the Miller/Petey saga was that Miller played like crap this season (watch the overtimes....). We all expected that to happen at some point in his contract, but no one set up this year's team for him to turn into bad JT. Petey played as a complement himself -- 100 points, 90 points -- a point a game over his career -- and then this? Demko was injured, and was understandably less than sharp coming back from injury. Primary complement Boeser is not a play driver, of course his production dried up when the play driver's cratered.

Of all things I think "wrong" with the direction, perhaps nothing is more indicative of the Lankinen extension. He was never and will never be better than an average NHL starter -- that's his *upside*, him at his best. Most likely he's a decent backup -- but decent backups are like being a #5 defenseman that might be able to play on the second pairing for some teams but is getting 16 minutes a night max. Press that player into top pairing minutes, and you might get by for a couple weeks, but you are going to hate the long term results.

To win a Cup, a team that isn't stacked with its skating group needs either a great goalie to make a cup run, or a goalie capable of playing great for two months. That's not Lankinen. Lankinen is like a sacrifice bunt to move a runner over -- sometimes, you have to swing for the god damned fence, and that means sticking to Thatcher Demko until he either mends or ends it. And if he can't go, that means you have find someone new -- and really, if the Canucks had to find a new starter, is that really a worse position than having Lankinen around and making them think they don't need one until the experiment fails?

The same is true for those wanting to trade EP40. I mean, I get it. I would too, depending on the return. But what's more likely in next couple seasons? EP40 being an 80-100 point players with good defense or the primary player in return for this damaged good doing the same? If EP40 doesn't return to something closer to the still-relatively-recent past, the Canucks are going to have a wild card at best ceiling. But if they trade him for volume? Then they will choose this worst case scenario.

Bottom line, I think every move the Canucks make this offseason should be geared towards the highest upside -- put them on the knife's edge I don't think they are on. I don't think they can be a contender with Lankinen as a starter. I think keeping EP40 likely has a higher upside than whatever the trade return is (assuming no rebuild -- and I think I'd run out at least next season first). And it means signing/acquiring quality over quantity; skill over stability. Roll the dice.

[donlever]

Man...you make it tough to reply UW.

So much beef to analyze and repsond to, I've got a busy life bro.

First thing I'll broach is our differing definitions of knifes edge.

Hang tight.

I promise I won't DeBrusk ya on this one.

[Picker of Cherries]

If Tocchet walk its.
They can resign Kuzmenko, bring back Petey’s joy and return to the playoffs.

[donlever]

Kuz-Mania seems to have taken root in LA.

16 games dude is 5G 6A 11P and the Kings are 14-2.

[2Fingers]

Borrowed this from another site., but it gives us idea of who is available if the Canucks address their needs through FA vs. a trade. Not sure if there are any assholes on the list to bring in that toughness.

Rank – Player – Pos – Team – Age – 24-25 Cap Hit

1. Mitch Marner – RW – Maple leaves – 27 – $10.9 million
2. Brock Boeser – RW – Canucks – 28 – $6.7 million
3. John Tavares – C – Maple leaves – 34 – $11 million
4. Matt Duchene – C – Stars – 34 – $3 million
5. Neal Pionk – RD – Jets – 29 – $5.9 million
6. Sam Bennett – C – Panthers – 28 – $4.4 million
7. Nikolaj Ehlers – LW – Jets – 29 – $6 million
8. Brad Marchand – RW – Panthers – 36 – $6.1 million
9. Ivan Provorov – LD – Blue Jackets – 28 – $6.8 million
10. Aaron Ekblad – RD – Panthers – 29 – $7.5 million
11. Brock Nelson – C – Avalanche – 33 – $6 million
12. Patrick Kane – RW – Red Wings – 36 – $4 million
13. Claude Giroux – C – Senators – 37 – $6.5 million
14. Jamie Benn – LW – Stars – 35 – $9.5 million
15. Mikael Granlund – C – Stars – 33 – $5 million
16. Brent Burns – RD – Hurricanes – 40 – $8 million
17. Dmitry Orlov – LD – Hurricanes – 33 – $7.8 million
18. Jonathan Drouin – LW – Avalanche – 30 – $2.5 million
19. Yanni Gourde – C – Lightning – 33 – $5.2 million
20. Ryan Donato – RW – Blackhawks – 28 – $2 million
21. Nic Dowd – C – CaPenguinsals – 34 – $1.3 million
22. Vladislav Gavrikov – LD – Kings – 29 – $5.9 million
23. Jack Roslovic – RW – Hurricanes – 28 – $2.8 million
24. Taylor Hall – LW – Hurricanes – 33 – $6 million
25. Pius Suter – C – Canucks – 28 – $1.6 million
26. Alex Iafallo – LW – Jets – 31 – $4 million
27. Trent Frederic – RW – Oilers – 27 – $2.3 million
28. Andrew Mangiapane – LW – Capitsals – 28 – $5.8 million
29. Ryan Lindgren – LD – Avalanche – 27 – $4.5 million
30. Jake Allen – G – Devils – 34 – $3.9 million
31. Ilya Samsonov – G – Golden Knights – 28 – $1.8 million
32. Brandon Tanev – LW – Jets – 33 – $3.5 million
33. Corey Perry – RW – Oilers – 39 – $1.2 million
34. Nick Bjugstad – C – Utah – 32 – $2.1 million
35. Matt Grzelcyk – LD – Penguins – 31 – $2.8 million
36. Cody Ceci – RD – Stars – 31 – $3.3 million
37. Mason Appleton – LW – Jets – 29 – $2.2 million
38. Evgenii Dadonov – RW – Stars – 36 – $2.3 million
39. Reilly Smith – RW – Golden Knights – 34 – $5 million
40. Frederik Andersen – G – Hurricanes – 35 – $3.4 million
41. Andrei Kuzmenko – LW – Kings – 29 – $5.5 million
42. Gustav Nyquist – RW – Wild – 35 – $3.2 million
43. Nate Schmidt – RD – Panthers – 33 – $800,000
44. Jeff Skinner – LW – Oilers – 32 – $3 million
45. Justin Brazeau – RW – Wild – 27 – $800,000
46. Dan Vladar – G – Flames – 27 – $2.2 million
47. Adam Gaudette – RW – Senators – 28 – $0.8 million
48. Vitek Vanecek – G – Panthers – 29 – $3.4 million
49. Joel Armia – LW – Canadiens – 31 – $3.4 million
50. Nick Perbix – RD – Lightning – 26 – $1.1 million

[donlever]

Did not peruse the entire list (yet) but Sam Bennett is 100% asshole and would look great in this lineup.

Bennett and a Zadorov type would solve a lot of issues for us.

[Meds]

Unfortunately neither of them solve the biggest issue which is a 1C or 2C. But they do solve a few things.

1 (maybe 2) top-6 centers
2 top-6 wingers
1 or 2 playable assholes who address on ice toughness as well as culture in the room.

Not exactly minor surgery to get that.

A few ways to skin a cat there and do it efficiently.

Bennett and Zadorov certainly are playable assholes, and the former would meet the need a top-6 winger.

Cap space makes things difficult.

My thoughts on both of those players.....

Bennett is certainly an overpayment risk, but he's the type you are paying for because of his play in the post-season. Always a risk that unless your team is all but a lock for the post-season. The tricky thing with him is that his style of play can lend itself to those nagging injuries that have a guy in and out of the lineup as he moves into his 30's, and Bennett will be 29 in June. Bennett also has not scored at more than a 55 point pace to date in his career. Respectable 2nd line numbers on most teams, and he's playing over 17 minutes per game, so definitely top-6 TOI. His minus-13 is a question mark this year, playing on a good team and all, however it is an anomaly when looking at the last 5 seasons. I would definitely do more than kick the tires on Bennett, but I suspect someone will offer him $8M and 7 years.....I don't know if that would be wise, or even doable, for the Canucks. I would probably do $8M x 6, or $7M x 7.

Zadorov I would take back in a heartbeat, even recognizing that $5M is currently overpayment for a guy that will be your #5 (though able to be a #4 at need). With cap projections his $5M won't be a terrible burden 2 seasons from now, probably not really even noticed, and he is under contract until 2030. The cost of reacquiring him though? That would likely be pretty high. Certainly a 2nd rounder and a prospect. With our current blueline depth, I just don't know who comes out of the lineup. Zadorov can play his off-side though, it's just a question of whether or not coaches are OK with that.....so many of them don't like that.

Hughes - Hronek
Pettersson - Myers
Pettersson - Zadorov

Helluva deep 6 man blueline. All of them can play in almost every situation. Would put our blueline cap hit at just over $30M next year. It would also push Mancini into the #7 spot, which I think would be a good thing so long as he gets some regular minutes to further his development. Either that or you keep Forbort and Mancini continues his development in Abbotsford. Keeping Forbort probably puts the blueline cap hit at $32M.

That top-6 pivot spot though.....just killing us right now.

[5thhorseman]

It feels like only yesterday that Bennett was 18.

[Meds]

It feels like only yesterday that Bennett was 18.

And couldn't do a chin-up.

[donlever]

I believe that was Mittlestadt.

[Carl Yagro]

Combine together, neither could complete a single.

Word has it that as toddlers, both ran around with their pampers pull-ups around their ankles.