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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:44 pm
by 5thhorseman
Strangelove wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:25 pm
However there
IS enough science/data/evidence/research to know that my
STATEMENT ABOUT RNA VIRUS MUTATIONS IN GENERAL is true.
Seriously, WTF there Mr Splice and Dice...
Okay, it might be true in general, but I am seeing a lot of differing information about mutations and strains, most of which says that the virus is indeed mutating, and those mutations do not die out but cause further infections.
Check out this site:
https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... ountry=USA
This is a phylogeny of the first 169 strains of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) that have been publicly shared.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:31 pm
by Strangelove
5thhorseman wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:44 pm
Strangelove wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:25 pm
However there
IS enough science/data/evidence/research to know that my
STATEMENT ABOUT RNA VIRUS MUTATIONS IN GENERAL is true.
Seriously, WTF there Mr Splice and Dice...
Okay, it might be true in general, but I am seeing a lot of differing information about mutations and strains, most of which says that the virus is indeed mutating, and those mutations do not die out but cause further infections.
Check out this site:
https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... ountry=USA
This is a phylogeny of the first 169 strains of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) that have been publicly shared.
Of course it's mutating, all viruses mutate!
But it's more likely a brand new pandemic comes along
than this thing mutating into something much worse than it is right now.
The seasonal flu mutates much more than C19 seems to (5 Xs faster?)... and the seasonal flu doesn't come back deadlier every year.
All these mutations... they don't mean the thing is evolving into anything deadlier than it is right now.
The same successful vaccine would work on all of these variants (the differences between them are infinitesimal).
Measles mutates faster than coronavirus and the same measles vaccine works just as well today as it did 70 years ago.
"Mutation" is a scary word thanks to sci-fi movies...
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:34 pm
by Hockey Widow
Mutation just means it adapts to survive and thrive.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:35 pm
by Strangelove
Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:34 pm
Mutation just means it adapts to survive and thrive.
Nope.
A mutation is an accidental random change in the genetic code.
The vast majority of those kinds of changes tend to make an already deadly virus... less deadly.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:42 pm
by Hockey Widow
Strangelove wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:35 pm
Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:34 pm
Mutation just means it adapts to survive and thrive.
Nope.
A mutation is an accidental random change in the genetic code.
The vast majority of those kinds of changes tend to make an already deadly virus... less deadly.
Oh fuck off
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:42 pm
by Hockey Widow
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:48 pm
by Strangelove
It's okay Wids, you're right, I
do sound like a stuffed shirt right now.
A little like Lord Trump in fact!
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:49 pm
by Hockey Widow
Strangelove wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:48 pm
It's okay Wids, you're right, I
do sound like a stuffed shirt right now.
A little like Lord Trump in fact!
No Doc, you are not that bad!
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:53 pm
by Strangelove
Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:49 pm
No Doc, you are not that bad!
Thanks?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:29 pm
by Topper
Hockey Widow wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:34 pm
Mutation just means it adapts to survive and thrive.
No. That is not how evolution works. Mutations are random and constantly occurring. Ones that benefit an organism may give it an advantage in survival and reproduction. If that trait continues through multiple generation it may end up in the gene pool. If the individual carrying that trait dies without reproduction, the trait dies with it.
It is random. It is not a response mechanism.
LOL, doc lecturing on evolution
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:55 pm
by Strangelove
Topper wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:29 pm
LOL, doc lecturing on evolution
No. I was lecturing on devolution.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:54 pm
by 5thhorseman
Strangelove wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:31 pm
Measles mutates faster than coronavirus and the same measles vaccine works just as well today as it did 70 years ago.
You have any sources on that Doc, cos that would be fantastic if true?
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:12 am
by Per
A lot of people point to the high death toll in Belgium, or even Sweden, and are shocked, but it could just be that our statistics is better....
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html
As I've already stated, there is some serious underreporting going on in most countries.
Footnote: This is also how Sweden got a reputation for having the most suicides in the world.
We started presenting (fairly) accurate statistics on it in the 1930's already, while most other countries listed suicides as accidents in their reporting.
Today, when we have more reliable statistics from other countries as well, Sweden, at 11.7/100,000 is below the European average (15.4) as well as the US suicide rate (13.7). Canada, at 10.4, is close to the global average (10.6) . Albeit, mind you, the
actual global rate is probably not that low, because a lot of the figures from third world countries are still crap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... icide_rate
As for the very high Russian numbers, it could be political dissenters that just happen to "suicide" themselves while in custody.....
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:14 am
by 2Fingers
Numbers can be made to show anything you want it to.
Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:58 am
by Meds
Per wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:12 am
A lot of people point to the high death toll in Belgium, or even Sweden, and are shocked, but it could just be that our statistics is better....
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html
As I've already stated, there is some serious underreporting going on in most countries.
Footnote: This is also how Sweden got a reputation for having the most suicides in the world.
We started presenting (fairly) accurate statistics on it in the 1930's already, while most other countries listed suicides as accidents in their reporting.
Today, when we have more reliable statistics from other countries as well, Sweden, at 11.7/100,000 is below the European average (15.4) as well as the US suicide rate (13.7). Canada, at 10.4, is close to the global average (10.6) . Albeit, mind you, the
actual global rate is probably not that low, because a lot of the figures from third world countries are still crap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... icide_rate
As for the very high Russian numbers, it could be political dissenters that just happen to "suicide" themselves while in custody.....
https://www.facebook.com/annie.vereen/v ... 522027747/
Not sure if that link will work. It's Dr. Ngozi Ezike, Director of Public Health for Illinois.
"I just want to be very clear about the definition of Covid death. The case definition is very simplistic, it means that at the time of death it was a Covid positive diagnosis. That means that if you were in hospice and, you know, had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you were also found to have Covid, that would be counted as a Covid death. Technically, even if you died of clear alternate cause, but you had Covid at the same time of death, it's still listed as a Covid death."
Yeah. Definitely under reporting.