We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

[2Fingers]

Isn't one of the main reasons for a lock down is to ensure that the medical system can handle the number of people sick and require hospitalization etc.? I would say in BC we have done that with 95% of the beds sitting empty. It also ensure that the medical staff have the appropriate PPE available to protect them which was not happening.

With industry starting to step up and manufacture PPE in Canada this issue will soon go away except for the manufacture of the N95 masks. I have not heard of manufacturing of this occurring in Canada yet.

With the restrictions slowly being lifted I am concerned about the impact on the economy. It has already taken a big hit and delaying lifting restrictions will only compound the problem. So the question is the fine balance between economy and people getting sick and dying. I get the limits on holding large events but I do not see why they cannot allow restaurants to open quicker and other small events/facilities as long as social distancing is followed.

[Cousin Strawberry]

The swedes found a sneaky way to ethnically cleanse the migrant hordes without having to endure the associated global outrage...you know since the Corona kills a disproportionate ratio of dark skinned folks and all

[Mickey107]

I get the limits on holding large events but I do not see why they cannot allow restaurants to open quicker and other small events/facilities as long as social distancing is followed.

I think it's too soon, Reef. Restaurants, (some of them, I wont elaborate which kind), can be disgustingly close quarters and over a hundred
people at the same time. If you could be selective on who opens, maybe. That aint gonna happen. Not here.

I wonder when we'll go through the petroleum stockpile? How cheap will gas get?
On the weekend I went out to the old part of the airport where I keep my 69 resto mod in a buddies small hanger, took it for a spin and
put some Chevron 94 in it. Swear it didn't smell right.

[Topper]

If you want tragic comedy, look at the official data coming out of NY. Over 4,700 positive cases yesterday nearly 4,200 today. Down from over 11,000 a day a week ago.

Open the doors. LOL

[Meds]

The WHO is now saying that only 2-3% of the population (and I'm assuming they mean globally and not just infected people) has developed antibodies to Covid-19, which is much lower than they thought would be the case.

The irony here is that all of the news releases from official sources have been pushing the total number of confirmed infected cases, and then the number of deaths, all freaking people out about a mortality rate that is closing on 7%.....and the WHO has sometimes been the source of the info.

But now they are saying 2-3% of the world has antibodies. That's more than 140 million people.

So if 140 million people have antibodies, and there is no vaccine, then that means there have been 140 million cases of Covid-19.

But the same number of deaths.

The mortality rate just plummeted from 6.8% to 0.12%.

What's the mortality rate of influenza again?

As the panic and cases decline, watch the WHO and other governments come up with new theories as to why we can't reopen, why it's still not safe, and why a return to normal isn't the right move.

The response by the UN and the WHO, along with countries like our own, is about control and power and going forward it will be about maintaining that control and power.

[Per]

The WHO is now saying that only 2-3% of the population (and I'm assuming they mean globally and not just infected people) has developed antibodies to Covid-19, which is much lower than they thought would be the case.

The irony here is that all of the news releases from official sources have been pushing the total number of confirmed infected cases, and then the number of deaths, all freaking people out about a mortality rate that is closing on 7%.....and the WHO has sometimes been the source of the info.

But now they are saying 2-3% of the world has antibodies. That's more than 140 million people.

So if 140 million people have antibodies, and there is no vaccine, then that means there have been 140 million cases of Covid-19.

But the same number of deaths.

The mortality rate just plummeted from 6.8% to 0.12%.

What's the mortality rate of influenza again?

As the panic and cases decline, watch the WHO and other governments come up with new theories as to why we can't reopen, why it's still not safe, and why a return to normal isn't the right move.

The response by the UN and the WHO, along with countries like our own, is about control and power and going forward it will be about maintaining that control and power.

I think what has happened is that they now say that more than half of those that have the virus show no symptoms. Thus they originally vastly underestimated how many were infected, and as a consequence the mortality rate seemed higher than it is.

I still think it’s worse than the seasonal flu, not least because there is also underreporting on corona deaths. A lot of them are just labelled pneumonia. In both Italy and the UK only half of the excess deaths compared to a five year average are listed as Covid-19 related. It’s probably not 30 times worse, as originally suggested, but probably more than twice as bad.

[Meds]

The WHO is now saying that only 2-3% of the population (and I'm assuming they mean globally and not just infected people) has developed antibodies to Covid-19, which is much lower than they thought would be the case.

The irony here is that all of the news releases from official sources have been pushing the total number of confirmed infected cases, and then the number of deaths, all freaking people out about a mortality rate that is closing on 7%.....and the WHO has sometimes been the source of the info.

But now they are saying 2-3% of the world has antibodies. That's more than 140 million people.

So if 140 million people have antibodies, and there is no vaccine, then that means there have been 140 million cases of Covid-19.

But the same number of deaths.

The mortality rate just plummeted from 6.8% to 0.12%.

What's the mortality rate of influenza again?

As the panic and cases decline, watch the WHO and other governments come up with new theories as to why we can't reopen, why it's still not safe, and why a return to normal isn't the right move.

The response by the UN and the WHO, along with countries like our own, is about control and power and going forward it will be about maintaining that control and power.

I think what has happened is that they now say that more than half of those that have the virus show no symptoms. Thus they originally vastly underestimated how many were infected, and as a consequence the mortality rate seemed higher than it is.

I still think it’s worse than the seasonal flu, not least because there is also underreporting on corona deaths. A lot of them are just labelled pneumonia. In both Italy and the UK only half of the excess deaths compared to a five year average are listed as Covid-19 related. It’s probably not 30 times worse, as originally suggested, but probably more than twice as bad.

Under estimated by half?

If 50% of those who have it show NO symptoms that's only going by the tested cases because they don't know about the untested.

Under reporting of corona deaths? Nah. It probably evens out because of cases where the person with lung cancer and renal failure died a week sooner than expected after contracting Covid.....and still gets tossed into the Covid-19 column of total deaths.

Regardless, if 140,000,000 people have had it, and even if you DOUBLE the total Covid-19 deaths, you are only at 0.24% Mortality rate.

We just threw a gallon of gas and a lit match on the majority of the world's economy because of a 0.24% chance that someone could die from a virus.

Honestly, I applaud Sweden's approach.

[Blob Mckenzie]

I’m curious when people will be able to go on vacations to places like Europe, Mexico, Hawaii, Vegas etc. Is next year realistic at all? I imagine there will be some good deals to be had on flights and accommodations.

[Strangelove]

Honestly, I applaud Sweden's approach.

Don't forget those money loving godless heathens believed the earlier high death rates when they proceeded in that direction.

[5thhorseman]

Lumping the figures together to calculate a Case Fatality Rate for coronavirus overall can be misleading. There are different strains of the virus with differing lethality (is that a word?).

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... nese-study

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States

[rats19]

So now we believe china

[Topper]

Lumping cases to determine mortality rates ignore factors like age and influence of other chronic conditions. Grouping national cases together when the pandemic is treated by provincial/state or more local jurisdictions also creates wild distortions in the models.

An outbreak in a seniors care centre will produce far more fatalities than a chicken processing plant outbreak.

BC's numbers had been driven by care home outbreaks, those are coming under control but are replaced by work site (poultry plant and oil sands camp) and the Mission prison. Watch for case numbers to rise over the coming days, but mortality to drop over the next couple of weeks unless more care home become an issue.

[Strangelove]

So now we believe china

Yeah, 5th's article is really out there with its COULDs and MAYs and whatnots.

Balance everything in that article with this article to see mutations aren't likely to be much of a problem with COVID-19...

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/cov ... s-changes/

I mean as if we can trust anything coming out of China in regards to this virus right now!


"Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof." - 5th's article.

Not only do these... 2?? ... researchers have no proof, the science itself lends them no support.


"They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells. Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity." - 5th's article.

So tell the computer something horrible and unheard of happens... and the computer responds the outcome would be worse.

Yeahno, the way I understand it, mutations in an RNA virus are generally bad news for the virus, rather than us.

[Hockey Widow]

What drove the panic was the fear of overwhelming the healthcare sector. We are seeing reduced mortality rates exactly because we put into place stay at home and social distancing and closed everything down. Had we not done those things I think we would have seen uncontrollable spread, a collapsed healthcare system and a lot more death, violence and crime.

I think we did the right things. Did we have to do a complete shut down? Is Sweden right? Who knows. But we need to start the transition into reopening.

As for restaurants, Dr. Henry today asked the BC Restaurant Association for an action plan on reopening. Her perimeters were respect social distancing and protect workers. The Association was thrilled she asked them, didn't dictate and said they will have an action plan to present within 10 days.

It will be hard because a lot of restaurants won't make money if they can only be half full. If they have to have 2 meters apart from every table, limited capacity, they won't survive. And reservations will be a bitch to get! But its a start. Coffee shops and such will probably reopen for take out. Bars and clubs will remain closed for a little longer.

But we have to start somewhere. BTW, BC announced today that anybody who wants a test can now get one. where I don't know but they are opening it up to the public at large.

BTW the chicken processing plant on Cordova got shut down today!!

[Per]

I’m curious when people will be able to go on vacations to places like Europe, Mexico, Hawaii, Vegas etc. Is next year realistic at all? I imagine there will be some good deals to be had on flights and accommodations.

If there still are flights and accomodations.... lots of airlines and hotels will have gone bankrupt by the time this is over, and while the planes and hotel buildings still are there, it may take some time to get things running again, especially since the staff that has been laid off may have found other employment. All depends on how fast things are opened up again.

Norwegian Airlines has now filed for bankrupcy for the companies that employ all their staff. The planes are the property of a separate company, which they will be holding on to, but planes are on the ground, and once they open for business again they will have to rehire the staff that they need.

The cabin staff that lost their jobs from Scandinavian Airlines System earlier in the pandemic have been offered healthcare training and are now helping out at the hospitals. Some of them may decide to stay there even after the crisis.

All that being said, Spain is eager to open up as soon as humanly possible. Tourism makes up a large chunk of their economy, and the shutdown is costing them billions per day.