The Petey Predicament

[donlever]

How much does public/media pressure play in hockey talent evaluation with this ownership group?

A year ago we learned Brock wasn't traded because the offers would publicly embarrass management. Appears the public/media over valued what the auction market value was and public/media perception won the day.

Good post.

I won't comment on the omitted part for 2 reasons.

1 - my opinion has been made, is clear and a dead horse is being beaten

2 - you and I have discussed this offline and I have seen your graph chart and there is nothing to add...the numbers are the numbers and numbers, long term, rarely lie

However, the last 2 lines of your post made my eyebrows raise.

Are FA and AIG so concerned with public perception that they care/know what they are doing/want to display a will to succeed that they allow that to infiltrate their decision making process with respect to their team?

Think back to the "big" Brad Richards move being pushed on Nonis as well.

Do we have our very own mini Jerry Jones here?

Is it about the circus rather than the win?

I'd be surprised but it is an intriguing point of thought.

Edit....this struck me after my post....conspiracy theory for you....did the Ownership and Senior Management have an inkling at the time of EP's signing that QH was not a long term option for them?

[Topper]

Also fits with the leaks and public vilification by management of Bruce, Bo and JT.

I believe Quinn was smart enough to see the repeated failure of management at getting that 1c, 2c, and the way he was forced to publicly tow the party line over JT. I think he and Tocchet both came to the same conclusion at the same time.

How many Zegres rumours to Vancouver rumours were there a year ago? How long after Tocchet went there was the deal done on Zegres?

[donlever]

How many Zegres rumours to Vancouver rumours were there a year ago? How long after Tocchet went there was the deal done on Zegres?

Yep...as I posted yesterday....this kid could have played for us and things could be entirely different.

Miller
Zegras
Necas

Hughes
Zadorov

Tocchet

...spin things however we like in the would have could have should have world....it's anything can happen day.

Agree or disagree is fine.

What we can agree on (again) is ownership and management appear inept and have done for quite a duration.

...and we get fucked.

...and the band plays on.

[UWSaint]

How much does public/media pressure play in hockey talent evaluation with this ownership group?

A year ago we learned Brock wasn't traded because the offers would publicly embarrass management. Appears the public/media over valued what the auction market value was and public/media perception won the day.

...

Edit[/b]....this struck me after my post....conspiracy theory for you....did the Ownership and Senior Management have an inkling at the time of EP's signing that QH was not a long term option for them?

Can I play?

TSN (Farhan Lilja) reported Rutherford said that he'd known for 1.5 years that it was a possibility, which puts the timing of it at post-Oilers-eliminate-Canucks exit interviews or some kind of summer catch up call. Now I think he must have had an *inkling* before then, because I highly doubt Hughes would volunteer that information when the decision was 3 years away (and the re-sign decision 2 years away). So JR or minion (or maybe ownership) sort of brings up the topic of the long long term -- why would they do that if they didn't have an inkling? Hughes doesn't give the unambiguous enthusiastic ride-or-die response -- that's the "confirmation". Maybe it was as simple as "I don't want to think about all that right now," but the thing is, he's approached after a relative high -- sure, game 7 is a gut punch, but the Canucks had taken a step forward and it wasn't unreasonable to think that they could be a competitive team, and it was certainly the best team the Canucks had iced in Hughes' career.

The alternative is, I think, that their "inkling" 1.5 years ago was based on little to nothing more than the context of Hughes and his family. And when JR said 1.5 years ago, he was trying to say "look how on top of it we were," when that's not really how it comes off. (It comes off as "and then everything that could go wrong did while you were driving the bus?") But on this line, the more plausible story is that they didn't get concrete info from Hughes until after last season, when they met with Hughes he was dead straight about what it would take for him to stay, and one element of that was "we will be a winning team with a shot at the Cup," or at least "we will have a better chance at success than the Devils...." After the start of this season, it was clear to the brass that this unwaivable condition would not be met in Hughes' estimation (or nearly every other observer's estimation....)

Its also clear from their offseason moves "keeping the band together," that they thought they'd have a chance to keep Hughes and this was the way to do it. Nope.

[Cornuck]

Unless ..... the public and media outcry over the dropping of such a popular player with an inflated public persona was unbearable to ownership/management after how the public/media outcry had forced their hands on the previous regime.

How much does public/media pressure play in hockey talent evaluation with this ownership group?

Great post about the numbers. Maybe management should have ran them?

As for this last part, we may never know - but - it sure seems that management, like the fans, overvalues certain most players. Does the marketing department have a say?

[Lancer]

Tip o' the hat to Tops for the homework. What strikes me is that, with all the evidence that we're aware of them having before them, they still decided to extend Petey even if it meant potentially alienating the rest of the core. Evidently, they prioritized Petey over all - even Hughes. This, even after they made Hughes team captain. Why make a player captain unless you are willing to do whatever it takes to keep that player

Maybe they thought they could make it work out between the personalities involved. It is to wonder if it wasn't the succession of events to the core - Petey's injury and lack of offseason prep; JT losing his head up his ass; Demko getting injured yet again for a significant spell; etc. - vice any one thing that led management to this place with Hughes. Given JR's experience with NHL teams, you would think he would know better. Hoping is a shitty course of action.

Maybe management has information we don't about Petey that led them to believe he would get back to his 100-point self. Otherwise the decision to extend him and not trade him before his NMC kicked in just doesn't make sense. He's the constant thread in the disintegration of this core. If they traded Petey before his NMC kicked in - even if they had to later trade Miller because he had his head up his ass again regardless - would Hughes have changed his mind? If Petey left, would Hughes have stayed? If management thought he wouldn't, did they lock-in with Petey because they weren't sure they could extend Hughes? In that case, what sad state the team is in that management extends a player like Petey, to the point of sacrificing the perhaps best player in franchise history in the process, just because he's the least likely to leave?

Perhaps the lesson to be learned is to not fall in love with your core, no matter if you're a fan or management/ownership. Unless your core players commit to the team early-on from the get-go, pump and dump them for a player more likely to stick around. Unless you're certain (and not just hoping) a core player will rebound from their funk/injury, ship'em while they're hot.

[Topper]

Lancer, Scooter rejected being considered for the C. He's as comfortable in front of the press as Hronek.

The C has to be that guy, rain or shine, faces the retards with microphones. As big a role as commanding respect in the room.

To be clear, the peak and pts/gm performance curve are broad and subtle. What isn't is the 1st StdDev, very basic stat analysis, that shows how inconsistent he is.

How many games have you seen Scooter be a dominant force on the ice?

That is what has always baffled me about his contract. If his balls were only 1/2 the size of his agent making those demands, he'd be a player.

It still doesn't answer why management went along with it.

[Lancer]

Yeah, Tops, I don't think anybody inside or out of the organization ever thought of pinning the C on Petey - for all the reasons you mention below. He was never going to be that face of the franchise. What baffles is me is that management evidently chose Petey over Hughes, who was their captain.

If his balls were 1/2 the size of his agent's, this thread wouldn't exist.

Like I said, unless management knows something about Petey moving forward that we don't, management arguably chose the worst of that core to keep. What's worse is the one they kept is likely why the others aren't there anymore.

[Aaronp18]

Based on management's, or perhaps ownership's, track record I have zero trust they know anything we don't about Petey.

[Ronning's Ghost]

Does the marketing department have a say?

My strong suspicion is that marketing potential is a big part of the reason that Jett Woo and Arshdeep Bains are part of the Canucks organization.

[Meds]

How many players are given a contract like that but are not captain, or at least potential captain, material?

Matthews is borderline…..but he’s not afraid of the media, not sure I think he’s a great choice for the C, but he’s wearing it.

Panarin…..never struck me as the type. But he was a dominant player and consistent. He’s not sporting a letter.

Laine…..brutal reputation for attitude and team commitment, and most agree he picked the right year to put up numbers.

The only other guy that compare in terms of salary and questionable leadership qualities are Huberdeau (who I only include because of what a couple Flames fan friends say).

Guys like Darnell Nurse are overpaid as hell, but they aren’t inconsistent in the effort they bring…..they just aren’t smart players, and you could throw a letter on them and people would say, yeah, ok, he’s a warrior and dedicated teammate who can face the music from fans and media when shit goes sideways.

[Topper]

I probably should have posted this summary of analysis in the management thread as that was the reason I looked into this. Was there something obvious in the data to show the path? Scooter is history.

But back to Brock, the stinky dead/dying daddy issue years, he was pariah for fans because we didn't know what was happening in his personal life. At the same time, his agent was given permission to look for a trade and management was actively trying to move him. There were no takers, his value was 0.

What was the interest heading into free agency last year? Deadline the return would be "embarrassing", his ask was rumoured in the $8M range. He quickly settled for what was offered, but was that too high? Should he have been allowed to walk? I could see him being one of those eve of training camp, "fuck me I want an NHL job, I'm better than Spangler Cup roster" (see Lankinen) cheap signings somewhere, but not in Vancouver.