Carl Yagro wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:26 pm
You're going to have to pay EP over $10M/year and Hughes at least $9M/year soon... when the cap will likely still be stagnant.
What Barrie would want could be spread out over 2 or 3 less offensive but much more solid Dmen.
Hard no.
Pettersson will have to have an INCREDIBLE playoffs and substantially improve his performance next season to warrant over $10M.
Matthews is making $11M (which everyone says is crazy) and he produced at a 55 goal/93 point pace this year, and 44 goal/88 point pace last year.
Petey has produced at a 32 goal/79 point pace this year and 32 goal/76 point pace last year.
Matthews is also 6'3" 215 and does not get knocked around like EP.
A statistical summary of centers over the last 2 seasons lands EP 21st overall in terms of points per game. His comparables are.....
Barkov - 5.9M
Scheifele - 6.1M
Aho - 8.4M
Kuznetsov - 7.8M
Nugent Hopkins - 6M
Monahan - 6.3M
Lindholm - 4.8M
Larkin - 6.1M
I omitted veterans like Giroux, Backstrom, O'Reilly, and Toews, who all fell in that category but have some pretty significant career achievements under their belts either now or at the time of signing their current deals.
I think the closest two comparable players on the list are Aho and Kuznetsov. Neither of them are heavy players, and they produce similar numbers.
Kuznetsov received his current contract after a a disappointing season in a contract year, but the Caps were rewarded by him bouncing back and being a significant contributor in their Cup run the next season. He's proving to be a reliable center who produces just below a point per game and has shown steady playoff numbers. He signed a bridge deal before his current deal.
Sebastian Aho is the closer comparable because he's younger and of the generation that is holding out for bigger paydays early and thumbing their noses at bridge deals unless it's via an offer sheet. Aho got his big payday because of such an offer sheet that came his way from the Canadiens last summer.
Without the offer sheet, and barring a big step forward next season, I think Pettersson lands close to this value.
I think EP is a crazy talent, but I wouldn't be offering him more than $8.5M right now. If he does some serious damage this playoffs and/or puts up 100 points next year that will change.