AROUND THE LEAGUE - 26-27

[Lancer]

OFFER SHEET MATCHED! OFFER SHEET MATCHED!

This time its Carlsson. Quack quack.

There is definitely a market for Scooter now.

I wonder if Briere comes calling, now that he lost out on the Carlsson offer sheet? Likely not, if Tocchet has anything to say about it.

IIRC, though, there were multiple offer sheets before Carlsson before he chose Philly's. There is a market for centres who can play in the top-6, it seems.

[Hockey Widow]

OFFER SHEET MATCHED! OFFER SHEET MATCHED!

This time its Carlsson. Quack quack.

There is definitely a market for Scooter now.

I wonder if Briere comes calling, now that he lost out on the Carlsson offer sheet? Likely not, if Tocchet has anything to say about it.

IIRC, though, there were multiple offer sheets before Carlsson before he chose Philly's. There is a market for centres who can play in the top-6, it seems.

While Tocchet may say not a good idea was do you think Pettersson would say to having a chance to be on a Tocchet coached team again?

[Cornuck]

OFFER SHEET MATCHED! OFFER SHEET MATCHED!

Carlsson signs with the Ducks.

[Lancer]

OFFER SHEET MATCHED! OFFER SHEET MATCHED!

This time its Carlsson. Quack quack.

There is definitely a market for Scooter now.

I wonder if Briere comes calling, now that he lost out on the Carlsson offer sheet? Likely not, if Tocchet has anything to say about it.

IIRC, though, there were multiple offer sheets before Carlsson before he chose Philly's. There is a market for centres who can play in the top-6, it seems.

While Tocchet may say not a good idea was do you think Pettersson would say to having a chance to be on a Tocchet coached team again?

That would be funny if we heard that Petey used his NMC to nix a trade to Philly on those grounds.

[UWSaint]

Mildly surprised, but Verbeek's options without Carlsson probably looked too dim to swallow. Does this leave Anaheim in the same boat as Edmonton and Toronto - long on scoring talent at the top end of the roster but can't defend to save themselves?

Carlsson will be a star, and will likely be that 1C management needs him to be. Whether he lives to to being the highest-paid player, well that's another question.

I think I might put together a longer post in a new thread about this offer sheet specifically and the offseason generally suggests about the NHL in less of a "news of the day" and more of a signpost for the future type of thing, but in terms of the news of the day, let me offer this.

Carlsson is 21 years old and he has every attribute that you want from a player. He can skate, make plays, be smart, be gritty, play defense, has size. He's not just a Jack Hughes/Conor Bedard offensive threat (really good players at the hardest and rarest skills in the game, but not in all aspects of the game).

To be a two way center who plays responsibility and is a point a game (sorry, Mëds, .96/ppg) player at 21. Because the "base" for the performance is so wide, he's not yet at his peak, and the projectability is really solid with this player. Injury risk is always the big thing, but that's always the case.

I was talking with another serious NHL fan yesterday and we tried to identify how many players, at this young age, were actually better centers than Carlsson last year (giving some credit to that players past, but just looking at where Carlsson is and not considering his rookie and sophomore seasons). There were 14 or 15 undisputed better, 7 or 8 more that were disputed -- one of us had them on one side, the other on the other. J Hughes and Bedard were disputed, to give you an idea. And we counted Barkov as better, giving him a pass for the season out. Among those undisputed, several more were in the category of close and we don't expect it for long. It might be that a player is coming off a career year in a season in very trying circumstances (Scheifele); it might be guys that have to experience an age decline at some point, right (Crosby), and it might be guys that maybe we are giving too much credit to older seasons and too much of an allowance for being misused (Matthews).

What's my point: Leo Carlsson is already a 1C, and a good one, and his future should be up and up and up. And that while its not probable that he's going to ever be the best player in the league, of the post-"generational" McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon #1s, he has as good of a chance to be the second best center behind Celebrini (heck, forward) as anyone else. That's 10 drafts. The second best center. Sure, that's not set in stone. Bedard could be that guy if he overcomes the injury, gets some teammates, and develops a better two way game, maybe Hughes finds another level and starts avoiding injury, maybe one of the less high profile picks from the past 4 seasons goes through a late development explosion.

These players are rare, very rare. And while he might not become way more than he is, what he is is still damn good, and half the teams in the league don't have a better guy down the middle. If the offense doesn't get elite but just remains good, the all around game modes Kopitar, Barkov, as Lever said, Sundin. And think of the other 1Cs that didn't have (or play with) that size but were damned good defensively -- Bergeron, Toews, Datsyuk. Winners. Stylistically designed to play well against good opponents, to play well in the playoffs.

I'm not predicting Carlsson lifts the Cup since those guys (except Sundin....) did. Its not an individual sport. Those guys didn't absorb all that cap space, and there was more to how the teams were build than finding that kind of 1C. But its a damned good place to start. And its a place most teams will never come across in a draft. You pay for that. Out the nose. Verbeek should have figured that out a year ago. Now he paid for it out his ass.

[donlever]

Good post.

Verbeek had ample opportunity to deal with Carlsson but, like with Zegras (yes different scenarios) he had to play the little ball of hate tough guy.

And he not only fucked himself of Leo but also Mintyukov wall he was dilly dallying there.

LOTS of socialz chatter on the webz about these being fireable offenses....

...as far as Carlsson goes he could legit eclipse Barkov one day which, when he is 25, could be well worth 18 sheets per.

[Hockey Widow]

I think the big lesson here, as Donny points out, is the dereliction in not getting a deal done sooner. This old time management has to learn it is a new era. There is no valid reason why both of those deals could nat have been done last year, or during the season, with some good old fashion give and take. Its a mess. No way is Carlson worth 18 M per, yet. Perhaps by the end of his deal he will be with all other salaries comparably going up. But what does this do to the Ducks moving forward? Still if I'm Ducks I'm favouring taking the picks. Keep the cap space, lock up the rest of your soon to be RFAs, take a swing through trade or FA over the next two seasons. To me they are not close to winning it all so take the reset.

Bigger picture, what message does this send to other GMs? Perhaps not much as soon the teams will all be back up at the cap even with it rising. This may be an outlier year as so many teams have much more cap. But for the Canucks I hope the message is clear. Identify your keepers (not goaltenders) to build around and get them locked up if you can as soon as you can.

And yes Pettersson is moveable without retention!!!

[Meds]

Mildly surprised, but Verbeek's options without Carlsson probably looked too dim to swallow. Does this leave Anaheim in the same boat as Edmonton and Toronto - long on scoring talent at the top end of the roster but can't defend to save themselves?

Carlsson will be a star, and will likely be that 1C management needs him to be. Whether he lives to to being the highest-paid player, well that's another question.

I think I might put together a longer post in a new thread about this offer sheet specifically and the offseason generally suggests about the NHL in less of a "news of the day" and more of a signpost for the future type of thing, but in terms of the news of the day, let me offer this.

Carlsson is 21 years old and he has every attribute that you want from a player. He can skate, make plays, be smart, be gritty, play defense, has size. He's not just a Jack Hughes/Conor Bedard offensive threat (really good players at the hardest and rarest skills in the game, but not in all aspects of the game).

To be a two way center who plays responsibility and is a point a game (sorry, Mëds, .96/ppg) player at 21. Because the "base" for the performance is so wide, he's not yet at his peak, and the projectability is really solid with this player. Injury risk is always the big thing, but that's always the case.

.....

Quality as usual UW.

I'd still like to point to the absolute insanity of this salary and AAV.

It was roughly 10 years ago that the going rate seemed to be $100K per point (which generally incorporated "intangibles"). Inflation is a bitch, but this is ridiculous. Just going off of the production of the season prior to a contract......

They just paid Carlsson $268.6K per point. To contrast, we were questioning $11.6M for Petey which equated to $130.3K per point only 2 years ago. Draisaitl, who is undisputedly one of the top-5 pivots in the league, just played his first season on a new deal that pays him $132K per point. Draisaitl signed that contract after the Oilers had just been to the Finals in a playoff run where he had put up 31 points in 26 games in the playoffs.

I don't disagree that Carlsson is a 1C already, and in all likelihood he will continue to elevate his game. Do we see him eclipsing Draisaitl? I don't. I think he could reach the same level of production, but it's no guarantee. This contract is the height of foolishness by both Verbeek and Briere.

[Meds]

I think the big lesson here, as Donny points out, is the dereliction in not getting a deal done sooner. This old time management has to learn it is a new era. There is no valid reason why both of those deals could nat have been done last year, or during the season, with some good old fashion give and take. Its a mess.

The worst part of this situation is that now any pending RFA's may gamble on themselves in their final season. Which sorta ties management's hands into a damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Even looking at Petey's contract. The Canucks were actively pursuing an extension as soon as he was eligible. They gave him more than they should have, but they still got it done before he hit RFA. Carlsson was rumoured to be seeking $15M.....that is still more than his current play warranted when comparing to other 1C's that have signed in the last couple of seasons (see my post using Draisaitl as an example). You only need one or two GM's with no self-control for your higher end pending RFA's (and their agents) to see the benefit of holding out.

San Jose could be in a real bind with Celebrini and Smith. You can all but guarantee that someone will offer sheet Celebrini $20M.

Smith could command an offer sheet of $18M next summer based on what was just tendered to Carlsson.

If you're representing guys like this as an agent, you'd be crazy not to advise them to bet on themselves if Christmas rolls around and they are pacing for anything near the 70+ point range and under the age of 25.

While some argue that getting a longer term deal is better, when you're talking $80+M total guaranteed earnings over 5 years, that's a gamble well worth it. If you shit the bed, you can still spin that money into more than you or your grandchildren will ever need with reasonable investments. If you continue your trajectory as a player over that 5 years, you're great-great-grandchildren will be laughing.