The Brown Wizard wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 11:33 am
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/sweden-r ... ockdowns/
Sweden has recorded more than 19,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday afternoon, resulting in 2,355 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. By comparison, Sweden’s Nordic neighbors — Denmark, Norway and Finland — have recorded just 434, 206 and 199 deaths, respectively, as of Tuesday afternoon.
Yikes. These stats are from a few weeks ago even...
Per, would you attribute the idiocy of the swedish policy more to arrogance or stupidity? I'm leaning towards arrogance
I would say neither. I understand the reasoning behind the policies of Sweden’s Public Health Agency. They realize the virus has spread worldwide. There is no way it can be contained. Well, sure, a lockdown. But the minute you open things up it will be there. This is not about getting through a few weeks or a few months. This is about sticking it out for approximately two years or more.
Thus they have not wanted to implement rules that cannot be in place for more than a few months, as it will not serve any real purpose, but will cripple the economy, causing bankrupcies and unemployment, which in turn will lead to health problems. Unemployment increases the risk of depression, suicide, alcoholism, obesity, high blood pressure and even some types of cancer. It has been calculated that every percentage point of increased unemployment in the USA leads to 40,000 premature deaths.
The Swedish strategy has been to flatten the curve without enforcing rules that cannot be in place for a long time.
The virus will continue to pose a threat until we achieve herd immunity, which can either happen through a majority of the population having had the disease and developed antibodies or through developing a vaccine.
A properly vetted and tested vaccine could not really be available faster than in eighteen months. If they launch something sooner they must have cut corners, which immediately raises concerns over effectiveness and safety.
So either, we keep all of society in lockdown for at least two years (18 months to develop and test the vaccine, at least 6 months to massproduce, distribute and vaccinate, or we try to let the virus spread through the healthy population at a rate that is not too fast for the hospitals to be able to cope with, while attempting to isolate and protect the risk groups.
A Harvard study that I linked to earlier suggested that ideally the spread of the virus should be slowed down between 20 and 40% to flatten the curve sufficiently to not overload healthcare capacity, but if you slow it more than 60%, the second peak will get worse than the first one, so you have not solved the problem, just postponed it.
A lockdown that lasts less than two years will basically just push the peak (and also the achieving of herd immunity) a little bit further down the road while devastating the economy.
The Finnish state epidemiologist, Salminen, just last week expressed concern that Finland may have gone into lockdown too early, as they have hardly any cases outside of Helsinki, and that they may have to ease up on restrictions.
Comparing covid stats between Sweden and the other Nordic countries at this point serves no purpose. We are at completely different stages. This is a marathon, and we have barely left the starting line. The only resulrs that matter are the ones at the end of the race, roughly two years down the line.
At present it is estimated that some 25% of people in Stockholm have had the disease, and at no point has the hospitals been overwhelmed. There is still roughly 30% spare capacity in intensive care. Oh, but that is only because over two months Sweden managed to more than double the amount of ICU spots available. In part through converting operating rooms to ICUs and taking in retired staff as well as having OR and anaesthesia nurses switch to intensive care. This has of course meant that most elective surgery has been cancelled or postponed, which of course is a problem we will need to address down the road.
In Finland perhaps 2-3% have had covid-19. We will be back in business long before they reach their peak. And sure, if they can stick it out for two years, till there is a vaccine, maybe they have saved a few lives, but will anyone still have a job? And will society still function with all companies bankrupt and no taxes flowing into the public coffers?
Also, a lot of people point to the high death tolls in Belgium or even Sweden without realizing that these two countries count all deaths of people with corona symptoms, whether tested or not, whereas most countries only count deaths in hospitals with confirmed covid-19. The latter approach leads ro a huge gap between reported corona deaths and excess deaths compared to previous years. Eg the US is estimated by the Financial Times to have 60% more corona deaths than they report. Thus comparing these artificially low numbers with those that report all excess deaths is really a case of apples and oranges.
The relevant numbers imho are excess deaths compared to historical data, and there is also no use comparing numbers now. Get back in two years time, and we can see which strategy was more successful.