Good post RG. My opinion of Pettersson is no secret, and what we saw this season and post-season, as well as some hindsight has me agreeing.Ronning's Ghost wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 8:19 pm With the post-season injury reports out, and a better look at the teams in the 3rd round, and what level of hockey it takes to succeed there, I don't think this core is good enough, even if Allvin is able to put together a first tier supporting cast.
That is not to say that the talent isn't there, necessarily, because some of them are young enough that we can still hope for continued improvement, but we need to see peak Pettersson and peak Hughes some time before the end of peak Demko and peak Miller, and it needs to be better than what we saw this playoffs, or there just won't be enough, unless they get seriously lucky at the drafting table.
This was my fear with the way the team was built all along, and it looks to me so far like that's the way it's playing out. I acknowledge that the story on this core isn't written until Miller's play drops off with advancing age (assuming that, as the oldest, he is the first to decline), and that age-related decay is highly variable, but the window is shorter than I would have hoped.
So how does such an assessment guide the path forward? Barring some luck -- a couple of recent draft picks seriously outperform their draft projections, the Canucks come out way ahead in a big trade, a few players sign team-friendly contracts for their own reasons -- this organization doesn't have the depth of talent to make it over the top without mortgaging the future a bit. Maybe no modern organization has; I don't follow the moves that other teams make. And I suppose they have to shoot their shot, as a matter of fan expectation if nothing else. So there will be some draft picks foregone, and some contracts that probably won't age well. If they win the Grail, great ! Few of us expect an dynasty, and most wouldn't care what happened in the next few seasons as they paid the long-term cost. But I think that effort to get all the way there should have a short leash, and if they don't make it soon, rather than trying to extend a not a not very wide or long window, they should switch back to asset-recovery and rebuilding sooner rather than later.
Of course, I have seen nothing to indicate that the current ownership group would be OK with such an approach.
The retool on the fly plan that became Benning Built (sorry Donny) meant that we did not acquire enough impactful top 6/top 4 players in similar age ranges that matured at times to give the team a competitive shot on the back of some lower cap hits. Hindsight would suggest that Blobcat was right, you need to accumulate picks and prospects for 2-3 years if you want more than a short window. He burned as many as he acquired. This means we have a short window with the current core as is.
On said core.....
I don't see Pettersson being a top-line pivot who can put a team on his shoulders, this is particularly true in the playoffs. He had an outstanding season last year, and then was looking to repeat this year up until the halfway point, his play faltered, then pressure mounted to sign an extension, it got done, and he just continued to decline into the playoffs where our (soon-to-be) $11.6M star center produced 1 goal in 13 games. Then the injury reveal. Now, you either disbelieve the injury report and see the player for what (imho) he is or you believe it and see a massive failing on the part of coaching/management/medical. I'm inclined to call bullshit. As a player, Tocchet was a warrior in both the regular season and playoffs. He knows the value of being injury free come R1/G1 outstrips the importance of a division title and home ice advantage, especially when it comes to the players you are going to have to lean on for a playoff run. Rutherford helped build the Hurricanes team that won the Cup and then was at the helm when Pittsburgh won back-to-back Cups in 2016/2017, he also would know the impact that injuries to key guys have in the playoffs. I just cannot see them resting deciding not to rest Pettersson. The comment was made at one point that Demko could have played sooner if the playoffs were in jeopardy, they were willing to play it safe with Thatcher, so why not with Petey? You've got Cup winners running the show here, they know better. I don't buy the cover story.
To that end I think the smart play is to flip Pettersson for a player like Nick Schmaltz. He would come with an attached draft pick, likely a 1st rounder which JR/PA should be asking be deferred to at least 2027. You then go after a guy like Tom Wilson, and either re-sign Lindholm, or maybe try to entice Stamkos over on a 2 year deal. You push the chips in and try to win in a 2 year window (Thatcher's remaining contract), then hope that in year 3 you have a cheaper option in net (maybe Silovs) and get one last crack at things. At this point Hughes is turning 28 and needing a new contract. Give him 8 years and move pieces and draft like the world ends tomorrow for 2027 and 2028, reopen the window (a longer one now) with Hughes still running the back end for the last half of his deal. The important thing is to carry the new culture of accountability and buy-in forward through the process.
