Chef Boi RD wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 6:37 am
The cap space is a mirage, it will disappear soon. Gotta be careful what we do this year regarding Boeser next summer and Hughes soon after regarding “long term” contracts. I imagine Hughes will be getting Pettersson money, even more. I know idiots out there fancy trading our best playoff performer - Boeser for futures but how the fuck does that solve our current top 6 winger position that is putrid beyond Boeser? We’re gonna have to pay someone of high quality to play the wings in the top 6 eventually or multiple wingers in which we seem to need more of.
What Allvin does with the cap this summer will make or break this franchise moving forward. He needs to tread carefully here. Instead of pre-jacking
Cap space is a mirage only to the degree that it is always a mirage. Any competitive team has to wrestle with expiring contracts and existing players being worth more in the market than their previous salary. Its exceedingly rare for a team to not have a core player coming due for a contract in the next 2 or 3 years -- there's always some level of future planning.
Do the next steps make or break this team? That, too, is always the case at a certain degree of resolution. But this year's team -- which was pretty good -- was built on the same core as teams that were mediocre at best, with one big peripheral core exception -- in with Hronek, out with Horvat. The changes were of complementary players and coaching staff. If you make the wrong decisions on these things -- and let's concede for the sake of argument that's what Benning did -- then you undo them, just like Allvin has done in the past 18 months.
Let's get to details to really look at what the Canucks can do :
The Canucks have $26.2 M in cap space (with Poolman on LTIR). In the $61.4M in signed contracts & dead cap (which excludes Poolman), they have 10 forwards (4 of whom can be buried with no cap penalty but would need waivers), 3 D (1 of whom can be buried with no cap penalty but would need waivers), and 2 G (one of whom can be buried with no cap penalty and without wavers). If you take out the buryable contracts (and Poolman's), the Canucks total space is about $31.625M. There are two RFAs I expect the Canucks would put on the NHL roster if signed -- Hronek and Silovs. Near term horizon: there is only one player of significance whose contract expires at the end of the upcoming season -- Brock Boeser, possibly Hronek if he signs one year. Dead cap will also increase by $2.35M and the cap itself will increase by about 4.38M. The following season, contracts for Demko, Garland, and Mikayev expire.
So there is $31.625M to spend on 8 forwards (assuming opening roster of 14), 5 defensemen (assuming opening roster of 7), and one goalie.
If you presume Hoglander, Podkolzin, and Juulsen make the roster, its $28.75M left for 6 Fs, 4 Ds, and one goalie. For illustration, sign Hronek @ 7.5M and Silovs @ 1.5M. Now the Canucks are looking at $19.75M to spread over 6 Fs and 3D. Now let's assume that the bottom 4 forward spots (11-14) will cost 3.5M, comprised of tweeners of the PDG/Aman/Joshua-when-he-was-signed stripe, ELCs, and post ELC prospects that aren't getting paid. That leaves @15.25M for 2 Fs and 3D. Think you can't have Lindholm and Z for that and fill the rest for mins? You probably can, but whether that's the best use of the money is a different question.
In short, this is not too bad a place to be given the signed D (presuming Hronek is signed) would include a #1, a 2-3, and a 4-5. If I were GM, signing a true top 4D would be my top priority and signing a center better than a tweener would be my second priority. For defense, I have my eye on Matt Roy. What would he cost? $4.5M AAV? $5M AAV? That center might be a meaningful two way contributor or a defense-first player; the caliber of that signing would inform how to best fill the bottom pair on defense and wing.
And the next year, you are looking at $8.68M (Boeser contract + increased cap - dead cap increase) to sign/replace Boeser. (A planner likely sees Hughes' expected bump coming in the form of the next two offseason's cap increases and if needed potential collective savings from Demko, IM65, and CG8, where Demko likely gets a modest raise and the IM65 and CG8 roles are filled more cheaply.
All things considered, for a team with a competitive core, I think the Canucks are in a relatively decent situation to look for opportunities as opposed to feeling like they are in a very limited situation. They shouldn't get tunnel-visioned into just keeping all the complements together. Keeping the band together as much as possible probably is not the complementary group that makes for this core's highest ceiling.
(Edited to fix math error)