Just as Gaudy

Ed Willes cautions Canuck fans about reading too much into the team’s victory against Detroit on Thursday night. While he is right about the significance of one game – any game – when comparing two teams, he makes way too much of the scheduling differences faced by the Wings and Canucks:

The Detroit Red Wings play in the Central and Patton’s army didn’t have divisions this tough… The Canucks, for their part, play in the Northwest, which is either the worst division in the NHL or hits the tape at the same time as the South-east. In this division, the four teams which aren’t the Canucks are a combined three game over .500, which is beyond brutal in Gary Bettman’s NHL… it also raises questions about the competitive advantage the Canucks derive from tiptoeing through the tulips which occupy the Northwest.

Put another way, would the Canucks’ record be as gaudy if they played in the Central? And before you answer consider this: The Canucks are 14-3-1 within the Northwest this season.

While there is an advantage to playing in a weak division, it is a surprisingly small one. What Willes forgets is that Detroit plays 16 games against the weak sisters of the Northwest. If we throw out Columbus and Edmonton as a wash, the entire advantage the Canucks enjoy is found in 6 extra games against the Flames, Wild and the Avalanche, and 6 fewer against the Blues, Predators and the Hawks. What’s that? If the Canucks managed 7 points in the 6 games against the tough opponents and win five of six against the easy opponents, the difference is 3 points.

That’s not trivial but it is hardly enough to significantly discount the Canuck accomplishments if they do finish first overall again. Even if it is a close race. If the Canucks played in the Central, they would get Detroit’s travel schedule, too, and even with a harder opponent in six games, I’d rather play Detroit’s schedule than Vancouver’s. Do the Red Wings ever have to play five games in seven nights? (The Canucks should never get that kind of a draw either, but…)

I like Vancouver’s chances to finish first overall because once this ridiculous road trip is done, the schedule finally swings in their favour for the stretch run. If they do win, we can expect to hear a lot about the quality of their Division rivals from competing fans and even the Eastern media. We don’t have to pay any attention.

Willes asks a reasonable question, but he couldn’t have spent more than ten minutes thinking about the issue before stitching together his column. If he had thought about it, he would probably have decided that the Canuck’s record would be every bit as gaudy no matter where or who they played.

Postscript The fact that the Canucks won four of the five games they’ve played in the past week does not mean the schedule is not a factor. It does mean that the Canucks are good enough to overcome almost any adversity. Could the Wings – or any other team – get eight points out of ten in a week?

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