Thursday, July 31st, 2014

Off with the Schneid?

12

Mark Spector thinks that Mike Gillis should trade Cory Schneider at or before the trade deadline:

The Canucks will be an annual Cup contender for a few years yet, but will they ever be more ready to win the Stanley Cup than they are today? They are experienced, their leaders are in their prime, and as we saw with Christian Ehrhoff, pieces of this lineup are more likely to break off as time passes.

So why short yourself by having your most valuable trade asset sitting on the bench wearing a ball cap this spring, rather than patrolling Ryan Kesler’s wing, at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds?

Because the asset is very likely more valuable sitting on the bench than what the Canucks can get back in a trade. Partly that is a belief that Schneider will see some action in the playoffs no matter what and partly because Luongo could get hurt and Schneider could play a lot. Having a quality backup goalie has value.

Mostly, however, keeping Schneider is a good idea because the Canucks don’t have the cap space to take on a player good enough to actually help them win. While one can imagine a five or six player package deal, it is hard to imagine one that would more than marginally improve the Canucks. There is risk in making significant change and the Canucks do not have to take a risk. The players available at the deadline are usually pending free agents and hardly ever make a significant difference.

Cory Schneider is definitely an asset, one that several teams are apparently interested in acquiring. He is going to be traded eventually, but it is much better to wait until the playoffs are over. That’s when Gillis can make the best trade because that’s when he will have – or can create – some salary cap flexibility and that’s when other teams are remaking rosters.

A good Schneider trade is one that will help the 2014-15 Canucks stay near the top of the league. A good trade might be available before the deadline, but I will be very surprised. That good trade is much more likely to be around in June.

Until then, what’s wrong with having a great backup goalie?

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Comments

12 Responses to “Off with the Schneid?”
  1. The danger would be in waiting beyond the June draft. If Schneider makes it to free agency, I’ve got to think that there would be a general manager willing to use an offer sheet that would only net the Canucks a second-round pick (something like three years at $3M per year). They could match it, of course, but then they can’t trade him for a year, and they’d have a very expensive back-up goalie.

    • Tom says:

      They would also have cap problems with a match.

      The best thing for the Canucks is probably to package Schneider with Ballard to unload a bad contract. The most important thing they can get back in a trade might be cap space.

    • Rajeev says:

      I believe Vancouver can just take Schneider to club elected salary arbitration, which would prevent any other team from throwing an offer sheet at him. This is certainly what Vancouver, or any team that trades for him, should do. Given Schneider’s limited GP over his NHL career, his actual market value should be higher than any potential arbitration award.

      • I’m not 100% clear on when the club is allowed to take Schneider to arbitration. He makes less than $1.5M, so I thought that they had to wait for him to reject his qualifying offer, and he doesn’t have to make a decision on that until July 15th, which gives him plenty of time to sign an offer sheet. Do you read that section differently?

        • Rajeev says:

          I could be wrong, but I do read that section differently. The 1.5M figure only has significance in that a team doesn’t have to give a Qualifying Offer to RFA’s who make over that amount. Rather, they can go straight to club elected arbitration. For Group 2 RFA’s that make less than 1.5M, e.g., Schneider, the team has to submit a Qualifying Offer first, in this case of at least 900K, and the player can accept or not accept. If that player has not accepted the QO, the team can file for arbitration.

          • I’ve been looking at this more closely, and it’s clear that my original idea is wrong because the deadline for club-elected arbitration is July 6th. As such, it’s clear that you’re right about Schneider not needing to explicitly reject his qualifying offer before the team elects arbitration. However, the team’s window for club-elected arbitration is very small for a player in Schneider’s class (section 12.4):

            “…commencing upon the Player’s deadline to select salary arbitration and continuing for 24 hours thereafter (i.e., commencing July 5 at 5:00 p.m. New York time and ending July 6 at 5:00 p.m. New York time).”

            By my reckoning, that still gives Schneider about five days to sign an offer sheet.

          • Rajeev says:

            Yea, I think you’re right, he’ll have five days to sign of offer sheet. Pretty interesting.

            I’m not much for giving up assets to get goalies, or paying goalies a ton, but if you’re Det, San Jose, or Chi, you almost have to throw an offer sheet at Schneider if only to hurt Van’s cap situation, and it also likely improves your goaltending situation.

  2. Reuben DeVries says:

    Maybe this is wishful thinking but I think also there is a chance that we could see Schneider sign a short term contract with the Canucks with full intent to play here as back up for the next two years…. Here are my two reasons for this first Schneider wants to win a cup, his best chance at doing so is with the Canucks any team that trades for him or signs him is at least two to three years from the cup even a team like the Edmonton Oilers. When you’ve got your name on the cup it just makes free agency a whole lot easier. I guarantee that IIlya Bryzgalov’s agent kept bring up the fact that he’s won a Stanley Cup with Anaheim when contract negotiations happened with Philadelphia… even though he didn’t play one game in those playoffs. That’s how agents talks to team management. It matters end of conversation. He’s a champion, champions cost money. Can you imagine what that discussion looks like now that you’ve played some of those games that helped you won a cup? Secondly I think he knows that nobody knows how this Luongo relationship is going to last. Personally I think there is a chance that within two years Lu and the Canucks just agree on needing a trade. I think Schneider would prefer to start for the Canucks then any other team. So those are my two reasons.

    • Reuben DeVries says:

      EDIT… I said Bryz didn’t play a game in those playoffs that is incorrect I meant to say he didn’t play in the finals.

  3. stephen says:

    Is an offer sheet something to fear? Wouldn’t an offer sheet in fact set the upper bound of what you could expect in return for a player now? Is there ever a situation in a players career in the current cba where his trade value would exceed the rfa compensation levels he could get as a youngster?

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  1. [...] CANUCKS CORNER: Tom Benjamin explains to those who still can’t quite grasp the concept of why the Canucks won’t trade Cory Schneider at the deadline. [...]

  2. [...] finally, over at Canucks Corner, Tom Benjamin suggests that Cory Schneider is more valuable at the end of the bench (and therefore playing for the Canucks) than anything that the Canucks could get right now for [...]



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