Monday, November 24th, 2014

The Family Discount

11

Mirtle has posted a good one about the Sedins. He finishes with:

As for those contracts: Should Vancouver go on a run, the smart money’s on GM Mike Gillis ponying up to keep them in the fold. A tandem as good as the Sedins is tough to find, and the fact they’re underrated keeps their price more reasonable than it would otherwise be.

I’m not sure I agree that they are underrated, but the fact that they are a tandem will certainly keep their price more reasonable. It is one thing for a team to pony up $6-7 MM on a long term contract for a free agent, but its another to pay $13.5-$14 MM on a long term contract for two free agents. Particularly when everyone is running scared on league revenues and a falling salary cap. There aren’t that many teams able to make that kind of commitment and some of those teams aren’t willing.

The question is not really about what the Sedins are worth. In their case, it is more about what other teams are willing and able to pay. Both players want to stay in Vancouver and both want to play on a winner. Gillis wants them to stay, but why should he pay more than they can get elsewhere? Which good team can afford them? (Or even force the Canucks to pay them $6 MM?) I can’t see one. Would they be interested in losing in Toronto? I doubt it, and I suspect Burke would rather go for Bouwmeester and Hossa or Gaborik.

Never mind the hometown discount. How much is the family discount?

Be Sociable, Share!

Comments

11 Responses to “The Family Discount”
  1. James Mirtle says:

    True, but I’d argue that part of the reason there’s not a huge demand for them at that ticket is that they’re underrated.

  2. Tom says:

    I’m not sure how the fans and media see the Sedins so you could be right. Surely teams investing millions know exactly what they can do as players. They should, anyway. I don’t think their play through the playoffs even matters that much.

    I think you underestimate the impact of a static cap. If it falls, teams are going to be horribly squeezed because they all assumed a $60 MM cap next year, and higher the year after. They are going to be very conservative this year. Toronto, Vancouver and, perhaps, Minnesota, will be willing to sign more than one elite player. Most won’t be able or willing to sign any.

    That – more than anything else – is going to rule the free agency market this year and the fact they are a pair really drives down their value in this environment. They will be the single biggest cap hit signing next year, by a mile.

    The Canucks can outbid anybody if it comes to that. The Canuck advantage is that they already have $7 MM committed to them. Even if it goes to $13 MM – the Sedins demand – Vancouver only has to find an extra $6 MM in cap room. Any other team that wants them has to find $13 MM of free space. For five years. With a salary cap that is very likely to fall next year. How many teams can find $11.5 MM for three years which is apparently the Gillis offer?

    I don’t think their demand is unfair at all, but I don’t think they can get it. Gillis may be saying, “Hey, I could be wrong about where the market is going. I’ll leave my offer on the table and you ask around after July 1st. And we’ll definitely come up if I’m wrong.”

  3. Roberto says:

    Gillis may be saying, “Hey, I could be wrong about where the market is going. I’ll leave my offer on the table and you ask around after July 1st. And we’ll definitely come up if I’m wrong.”

    How would the Sedins take this? Would they be disappointed in not being appreciated by the franchise they’ve been sacrificing their bodies for for years, or will they shrug, chalk it up to business, and accept the Canucks’ best offer?

    I’m hoping for the latter.

  4. mc79hockey says:

    I’m not sure how the fans and media see the Sedins so you could be right. Surely teams investing millions know exactly what they can do as players. They should, anyway. I don’t think their play through the playoffs even matters that much.

    Knowing what they can do isn’t the same as valuing it properly.

  5. Tom says:

    True, Tyler, but nobody knows how to value it properly. Nobody knows how much Luongo should be paid, and nobody knows whether Lidstrom helps a team win more than Datsyuk does. Everybody wants to play Moneypuck, but I haven’t seen any evidence that it is remotely possible.

  6. Roberto says:

    I don’t think their play through the playoffs even matters that much.

    If the Sharks get bumped in the first round again, ask Thorton and Marleau what they think good play in the playoffs is worth. Since they likely won’t get to play in the Olympics as a result of an early exit, it certainly matters enough to a select group of people with hockey clout.

  7. Tom says:

    It doesn’t matter if teams don’t have the money to spend. I think that’s the point. Teams have too much money already committed to hire two elite forwards. Whether the Sedins continue to be excellent in the playoffs or not… Teams still don’t have the money.

  8. Roberto says:

    That’s a good point, Tom. Any idea if there are any teams with both the room and the money? I doubt Phoenix or Nashville or Atlanta could afford them, even if they have the room.

  9. Tom says:

    Toronto, for sure, but I don’t think that’s a good fit. I think Burke will spend the money on Bouwmeester and Gaborik. Most teams were right up against the cap this year. To pay the Sedins $13 MM, they have to create that much cap space to sign them. I don’t think many of them can even top the Gillis offer.

  10. Dennis_Prouse says:

    Montreal has 10, count ‘em, 10 players heading for unrestricted free agency this summer, so they will have cap room galore. They are a high revenue franchise that isn’t afraid to spend to the cap, and have a fan base howling for action. It would not surprise me at all if the Habs stepped up and made a big offer for the Sedins.

Trackbacks

Check out what others are saying about this post...


Speak Your Mind

Tell us what you're thinking...
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!