Tom Benjamin’s NHL Blog

Another Guess

A hockey fan (or pundit) is a person who can tell you what will happen in a hockey season and his guess is liable to be as good as anybody’s. (Apologies to Will Rogers.) I don’t have any predictions, but I am looking forward to the season more than I have since 2003-04.

James Mirtle does deliver up picks and his best guesses are here. He figures the Canucks will miss the playoffs again:

I suppose we’ll see how much preseason means when it comes to the Canucks, who after pasting the Flames on Wednesday night are the last undefeated team left in exhibition hockey. Scoring will continue to be an issue in Vancouver, but even by potting as many goals as they have the past two years, a playoff berth is possible if Roberto Luongo returns to form. A breakthrough from an unexpected source — and a break in the injury department — would go a long way toward improving their playoff chances. Key player: Steve Bernier

(I don’t think it is fair for fans to call Mirtle (or anyone else) an idiotic knob for sharing his best guesses with us, but it seems to go with the territory. I don’t think passion excuses a lack of civility, but what can anybody do except try to ignore it?)

Last year when Mirtle picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs he was out of step. This year, he delivers up what can be described as the consensus view. Obviously, he (and the other pundits) could be right. The consensus view is seldom ridiculous. Still, I think the Canucks will be a lot better than most people expect. If it wasn’t for an awful schedule I’d pick them to be the surprise of the year, and a playoff team for sure.

I don’t think a great streak in the exhibition season means the same thing as a great streak in the regular season, but lousy teams don’t win six of anything in a row. I do think Luongo will have a good year. I do think there will be a breakthrough from an unexpected source - plenty of players will get the chance - and the injury situation is very likely to be better than last year.

I think they’ll be fine. Even if they are not, it will be fun to watch Vigneault sort out this lineup. If I was coaching, the final roster looks like this:

Forwards: Sedin, Sedin, Bernier, Demitra, Raymond, Pyatt, Kesler, Burrows, Hansen, Hordichek, Johnson, Pettinger, Cowan, and Wellwood.

Defense: Oklund, Salo, Mitchell, Bieksa, Edler, Krajicek, and Nycholet.

Goal: Luongo, Sanford

My guess - liable to be as good as the next fellow’s - is that they make the playoffs.

Less than Nothing

I confess that I don’t get the Mathieu Schneider trade. I could understand an Atlanta decision to pick him up for nothing when they had a chance to get him on waivers. I could understand it if they waited and tried to pick him up at half price on reverse waivers.

Obviously, the Thrashers are not giving up three players to acquire the Anaheim defenseman, and just as obviously Brian Burke didn’t want Ken Klee et al because he was trying to clear cap space. This means that Don Waddell was unloading three contracts that he did not want. Fair enough, but why? None of the contracts are unreasonable. I guess I see why Atlanta would insist on Klee going the other way. Schneider takes his spot and $1.2 MM is $1.2 MM.

But the other two guys? They are on contracts that are near the minimum wage. What kind of salary dump involves minimum wage players? I don’t get it. Does Waddell have better minimum wage players around to replace them? They can’t be saving money offloading two marginal players to Anaheim.

About the only thing I do understand about the trade is that the three players Anaheim got in exchange for Schneider have an actual value of less than nothing.

Hard Cap, Soft Floor

Dear Tom,

GL

The teams that are over the salary cap will have to get under before the season starts. If they cannot do anything else they will have to waive players and send them (and their salary) to the minor leagues. I’m not going to bore people with the details, but the system is structured to make overspending the cap impossible. (This is aside from the allowances made for injuries and performance bonuses.) The league won’t allow a player move if it results in a situation where the team projects to overspend the cap. Therefore there is no need for a punishment in the CBA for teams that overspend because they can’t overspend.

There isn’t any sanction for teams who underspend the salary floor either and there is really no way to assure that all teams spend to the floor. It isn’t clear that the league - or the players for that matter - will really be concerned if Los Angeles fails to spend $40.3 MM.

Reality Bites

A piece of good news came out of the recent Board of Governor’s meeting - expansion wasn’t a topic on the NHL agenda. (Which probably means it was discussed and rejected. It is never a topic on the agenda until it is approved.)

“We like our 30 teams now and we don’t feel this an appropriate time to do it,” commissioner Gary Bettman said. “What the future may hold, I’m not prepared to predict, but it’s not on the agenda.” …

Bettman acknowledged there continues to be expansion interest in both Canada and the United States. But with the slowdown of the economy, the uncertainty of North American financial markets and the slumping Canadian dollar, the league needs to make sure its revenue continues to grow and the struggling franchises get through the predicted tough financial times.

I think prospective owners of expansion franchises would have significant problems finding financing for either a team or a new rink. The economy forced expansion - probably to Las Vegas - off the radar screen. Call that a very narrow silver lining in a very dark cloud.

“We’re seeing a little slowness in our market in terms of ticket renewal and some sponsorship stuff. But there is not significant erosion. Our support basis is still strong. So far, so good.”

Pat Laforge of the Edmonton Oilers also mentioned that their sponsors were hurting in the current climate. The league claims that ticket sales are up from the same time last year, but I think more than one team is going to regret raising ticket prices this year.

On the Waiving of Schneider

Mirtle gives us the lowdown on Brian Burke’s decision to waive Mathieu Schneider along with this:

There are 12 teams with enough cap space to take Schneider on, and Los Angeles seems the move obvious choice given their need for a veteran blueliner and position $18-million below the cap. Atlanta, Phoenix, the Islanders and St. Louis also have the space and a need for an offensive defenceman.

We’ll know within the next few days where he’s headed.

Even if I had the cap space and a need for a veteran blueliner I wouldn’t claim Schneider. I don’t think he’s worth his contract, but even if I thought he was worth his salary, I wouldn’t claim him. Any western general manager would have to have his head up his ass to claim Schneider.

What if Schneider clears waivers? What does Burke do then? He can send him down but he doesn’t clear any cap space because Mathieu was over 35 when he signed his deal. Unless some Numbnuts claims Schneider, Brian Burke a) can’t sign Selanne, and b) has to unload salary somewhere else.

Why should anybody do Brian Burke this kind of favour? Doesn’t everybody benefit if Selanne has to find a new home and Anaheim has to shed talent they don’t want to shed? Why give Burke such an easy way out of the jam he’s made for himself? Who needs to pay Mathieu Schneider a ridiculous sum badly enough to let Anaheim off the salary cap hook?

I think there is a good chance he will clear.

The Widow’s and Orphan’s Fund

The NHLPA has taken the NHL to court over a pension dispute:

The issue relates to the calculation of the death benefit for players with NHL service prior to July 1, 1986. The NHLPA believes widows and other beneficiaries of players who passed away before taking their pension were paid less than is required by law.

The NHL disagrees.

Glen Healy explains why the NHLPA chose to sue rather than use the arbitration process:

“This matter is too important to continue on without a resolution. The courts will resolve the matter more quickly and definitively than the arbitration process, and will provide the players and their beneficiaries more confidence that the correct result will be obtained.”

Part of the reason this case went to court is that the arbitration system is broken and the NHLPA is not willing to let this case wait through the backlog of cases for two or three years. That this is a case the NHL would prefer to resolve quietly probably doesn’t bother Paul Kelly at all. (That might be the most significant part of the story. Given the chance to stick a finger in Gary Bettman’s eye, Kelly poked away.)

The NHL had better have a very good case. How does it look if they lose? A bunch of billionaires have been ripping off widows and orphans for more than twenty years? That will be great for public relations. It can’t be a huge amount of money, can it?

I’ll never understand why the NHL lets itself get into this type of situation.

Time to Fret

A California juudge has rejected the plea agreement involving Anaheim Duck owner Henry Samueli. Not only did the judge make it clear he wanted to see a jail sentence, he seemed to imply Samueli deserved to be charged with more serious crimes:

“It would erode the public’s perception of our justice system to accept a plea agreement containing an unprecedented payment of $12 million to resolve the criminal liability of one of four coconspirators in an alleged $2.2 billion securities fraud.”

Samueli has been given time to negotiate a more acceptable plea agreement. Failing that he may decide to withdraw his guilty plea and take his chances in a trial. Either way, it has become a lot more likely he’s going to spend some time in jail. It has also become a lot more likely that the league will be looking for new ownership in Anaheim. I can’t see how the current arrangement - Gary Bettman is acting as a go between between a suspended Samueli and the team - can be sustained if Samueli is in jail.

Way back when the SEC first charged Samueli, Bettman said “The Samuelis have been terrific owners. They’re perhaps the most community-minded and charitable people in all of Orange County. I am not going to fret about something that may or may not be substantiated at the end of the day.”

I think he is fretting about it now.

Postscript: In the story’s strangest twist, Samueli’s partner, Henry Nicholas, has been indicted for conspiracy and securities fraud and also faces charges that “he slipped ecstasy into the drinks of business associates and had a drug warehouse.”

Huh?

Update: Mirtle has more on Mr. Nicholas and the indictment against him. Apparently Nicholas enjoys “a lifestyle so extraordinarily profligate that not even the description of “Gatsbyesque” could suffice.”

Murray and Meszaros

I suppose Bryan Murray has his reasons for trading Andrej Meszaros. I’m not looking at his budget and I don’t understand his plans going forward. Most Senator fans seem to support the trade and I certainly don’t know as much about their team or Andrej Meszaros as they do.

Still.

This looks to me like the latest in a string of bad decisions, decisions that have reduced the most talented team in the league to, at best, mediocrity. (To be fair, a lot of that is Gary’s fault - his CBA was designed to make sure Ottawa would come back to the pack - but did Ottawa management have to give him so much help?) I’d have more respect for the opinion of the Ottawa fans who are supporting this choice if all the earlier bad decisions hadn’t been greeted with the same blind enthusiasm.

First, I hope it is obvious to Adam Proteau that he was used. There was no RFA offer to Andrej Mesazros at $5 MM a year. This lie was leaked to for two reasons. It painted Meszaros as unreasonably greedy and it allowed Murray and the hockey pundits to declare he got more than the draft picks he would have received if the RFA scenario was real. It wasn’t.

Second, the contract Meszaros signed seems entirely reasonable to me in the context of those dished out to similar players. If he is going to be somewhat overpaid for the next couple of years, he will surely be giving that money back in the last three years of the deal. His progress may not have been what everyone wanted last year, but so what? Virtually every player who has nearly 250 NHL games at his age turns out to be a good to very good player. If Murray had announced last week that the Sens had signed Meszaros to a six year, $24 MM contract, I would have been delighted if I cheered for them.

Third, I can’t see how Ottawa can win this trade over the next six years. I think Meszaros will be better than Kuba next year, but the trade may turn out to be a wash next season. Thereafter? Picard or Meszaros? That’s a joke. If the first round pick turns out beautifully, the Sens end up with another Meszaros four or five years down the road. Do they trade that Meszaros too? Assuming they keep him, they finally start winning the trade five or six years from now. Does anybody really care about five or six years from now? Its all very well to have cap space - which is what Ottawa gets long term with this deal - but as Vancouver fans have learned, cap space isn’t much use if there isn’t any talent worth spending it on.

At what point does Ottawa stop downgrading the talent?

Change and the NHL

Yahoo’s Puck Daddy (Greg Wyshynski) is running a series produced by “a cross section of sports media and hockey personalities” entitled “Five ways I’d change the NHL”.

Regular visitors to this site won’t be surprised by any of my comments, but my contribution is here.

Probably a Good Choice

I like Jamie Fitzpatrick’s take on Stefan Legein’s decision to pass on his chance to chase the NHL dream:

Fans love the official story. The hockey business loves it too. The “dream” shtick ensures an endless supply of athletes fighting to get to the top, even though most of them will never make any real money…

But maybe it’s not burnout. Maybe Legein simply gave it some thought - always frowned upon in the sports world - and made a life choice.

I think this is very likely the case. And - assuming he makes the smart decision in terms of his alternatives - its probably his best decision. The key point is that most players like Stefan Legein don’t end up making any real money. Unless he is the exception, he was going to eventually get a real job anyway. And - again, unless he is the exception - he’ll make more money over the long term if he quits hockey now.

His best choice involves cashing the scholarship he earned over his OHL career and spend the next four years playing hockey and studying at a Canadian University. Stefan Legein the wannabe NHL player would earn much more than Stefan Legein the University student over the next five years. But for the forty years after that? The Stefan Legein who quits hockey and goes to school will end up miles ahead.

Professional hockey as a career only pays for the small minority of players who become NHL regulars and remain regulars for several years. Everyone else is better off getting an early start in the real world. So what were Legein’s chances of being an NHL regular for several years? He’s a player who has to play with reckless abandon to make it and he’s a very small agitator in the NHL. He’s suffered a major injury even before turning professional. How likely is further injury? How much fun can a guy have when the job involves throwing yourself at players who are six inches taller and outweigh you by fifty pounds? How likely is stardom?

Hard work. No fun. Lots of pain. Probable failure. Not nearly enough money to compensate for the time wasted chasing a remote chance, a dream. Who needs hockey that badly? I don’t think we should be surprised when smart young men in Legein’s position decide to pass on the NHL.

The real surprise is that it doesn’t happen more often.