The Brexit disaster

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Megaterio Llamas
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Megaterio Llamas »

Per wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:21 am The two European countries most likely to swing for sovereignty in the near future are Scotland and Northern Ireland.
And then they’ll apply for EU membership. :thumbs:
As jubilant Brexit supporters gather to celebrate the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, Scotland is digging in to its position as the last bastion of political resistance.

The EU’s royal blue flag with yellow stars will continue flying at the entrance of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. The legislature, dominated by the pro-independence Scottish National Party, voted again this week to try and force another referendum on breaking away from the rest of the U.K. and ultimately rejoining the continent’s single market.
“Brexit and everything that will flow from it is happening despite the will of the majority of the Scottish people,” Sturgeon told the parliament in Edinburgh earlier this week. “It is beyond doubt now that the only realistic way for Scotland to return to Europe is to become an independent country.”
https://time.com/5775128/scotland-eu-flag-brexit/
isn't Catalonia trying to leave Spain these days?
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per »

Megaterio Llamas wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:43 pm
isn't Catalonia trying to leave Spain these days?
Sort of.

In 2017 the Catalonian government arranged a referendum on independence, but Madrid declared it unconstitutional and used the Guardia Civil, a sort of cross between military and police, to shut down all polling places and arrest a bunch of people. They were also beating up people attempting to vote, including elderly ones... didn’t look good on camera.

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Imho the Spanish government was completely tone deaf. First of all, polling had support for independence at less than 40%.
If Madrid had allowed it to happen, but stated that they would only respect a bid to leave if it was supported by a majority of eligible voters, there is no way the independence side could win.

Secondly, the images of Guardia Civil beating up civilians peacefully attempting to cast a balott.... PR nightmare. :roll:
Anyone born in the 60’s or earlier remember how they brutally enforced Fransisco Franco’s fascist rule up till his death in 1975.
This was a throwback to that era, and I am sure there must be at least a few Catalans that opposed independence that suddenly had a change of heart when they saw this.

Thirdly, the Spanish courts overreacted too. About a dozen Catalan leaders have been sentenced to between 5 and 13 years of prison. I mean they didn’t kill anyone. They were a local government that organized a referendum. Sure, they were in violation of certain election laws, but Jeb Bush did not end up in prison for using the so-called butterfly ballot, that violated Florida’s election laws, in the 2000 presidential election that put his brother in the White House. :mex:

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(Buchanan did extremely well in Palm Beach)

This latter thing has caused some friction between the EU and Spain, as two of in prison had been elected to the European Parliament, after their arrest but before the trial, and as EMPs they have immunity. A third Catalonian EMP, the former head of government in Catalonia, had fled to Brussels, and has been able to take hisseat in parliament. The Spanish have asked for his extradiction, but the EU has pointed out that he has immunity, and have instead demanded that Spain immediately releases the other two so they can take their seats in parliament. Acvording to the EU, their verdict is null and void as they were elected before the trial, and this never should have been tried in the first place.

It’s complicated.

I don’t think Catalonian independence will happen in the near future though.
I mean, then Barcelona would have to leave La Liga, and their would be no more classico against Real Madrid.... :crazy:

Oh, and to make things even more interesting, the recently elected socialist governmment in Spain is dependent on the votes of two minor Catalonian parties to maintain a majority... These parties have been suggesting a pardon for all Catalonian politicians in prison, and if the government refuses they could end up losing power. :mex:
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Re: The Brexit disaster

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So, nothing much will happen this year, but come January first 2021 and the British may be in for a rude awakening.

Boris says he wants a Canada style deal. That took 7 years to negotiate, and Canada agreed to meet EU laws and standards on a variety of goods.

Boris has less than ten months to negotiate his deal, and insists Britain should not be bound by EU laws and regulations.
Good luck with that. :|

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Re: The Brexit disaster

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A Brexiteer has provoked a massive response after he took to Twitter to fume that longer passport queues were 'not the Brexit' that he voted for.
In a tweet he wrote complaining about the "disgusting service" at an airport in Amsterdam.

Posting a photograph of an immigration queue, he complained he had been forced to wait 55 minutes at Schiphol airport.

Officials have warned previously that those travelling from the UK after Brexit could expect longer delays in Amsterdam.

But, without an ounce of irony, he concluded his message by saying: "This isn't the Brexit I voted for."

His tweet attracted more than 8,000 replies in less than 24 hours, and caused the name Colin to trend.

"Um actually, yes, this is exactly what you voted for," said Ian Howes.

"You voted to lose Freedom of Movement. Did you think it didn't mean you?" responded Caroline Page.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6514898

”Passports are red,
Passports are blue.
You've fucked this up Colin,
Get used to the queue.”

:roll:
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Re: The Brexit disaster

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Right, so positioning for trade deal negotiations continue to surprise.

Not only has Spain demanded that Gibraltar be excluded from free trade, but now Greece also want the Elgin Marbles returned (see 32a):

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Re: The Brexit disaster

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Appears Canada and the UK have a tentative trade deal.

That wasn't too difficult.
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Lets hope they included yorkshire gold tea and their McVities chocolate covered bisquits in the agreement. Those fucking cookies cost like 4 bucks a roll and the tea is rediculously overpriced.

Dont punish us smokers any longer who enjoy an english afternoon tea party when coming down please
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Micky »

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"evolution"
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Topper »

Canada's
United kingdom
New
Trade
System
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per »

The time glass is running out of sand and the Britons should start bracing themselves for Impact.

What do you think, ten years from now, at the end of 2030, will the UK have lost more or less than 10% in GDP/capita relative to the EU average? :|

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Re: The Brexit disaster

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It is rather hilarious to read about brexiteers being upset about the changes they voted for.

Like now, apparently the hundreds of thousands of Brits having vacation homes in Spain (and other EU countries) are just realizing they can not spend more than 90 days there. The Daily Mail is referring to this as ”new EU rules” which is bullshit. The rule was always there, it just does not apply to EU citizens. As long as the UK was a member state, UK citizens could stay as long as they wanted.

But the people in Britain voted to no longer be EU citizens and thus they no longer will be treated as such. Thus the same rules will apply to Englishmen as to the Chinese, African, Australian or Canadian visitors, ie they can stay for three months, but no longer, unless they qualify for a work visa, student visa or any other such thing. Non EU tourists - 90 days. That’s it.

And they should have known this. It’s not like it was some huge secret hidden away.

Weirdly, it seems when they voted to end freedom of movement, they thought it only applied to others, not themselves. :lol:



On a sad note, I have an Australian friend living in London. He was thrilled when he got his UK passport so that he could use the fast lane at immigration in European airports, but then the Brits voted to put him back in the slow lane with all the Asians and Africans again. Through no fault of his own he got royally screwed. :(
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Re: The Brexit disaster

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Still no trade deal in place, but hey, the new rules (which they still haven’t agreed on) won’t be implemented till January 1st, so still plenty of time to get everything sorted and in order. Must be exciting for all companies involved in import and export, or using imported goods, to have no freaking idea what things will cost or if they’ll even be available three weeks from now.

More Jonathan Pie:

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Re: The Brexit disaster

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Deal
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Re: The Brexit disaster

Post by Per »

Yup. There is now a deal in place, at least provisionally.

It has been signed by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK. It has also been approved of the European and British parliaments. Technically things could still go awry though as the deal has to be accepted by all 27 member states, and at least two countries will put it up for voting in their repspective parliaments, so you never know. All member states have veto rights, so even though the Commission has been in close contact with all 27 governments during the negotiations to make sure that they are all on board, domestic politics somewhere could lead to eg Spain or France deciding to put in a veto and rip it to shreds. It's not very likely though. Both sides benefit from an orderly exit instead of Britain crashing out of the Union with no deal in place.

So what does the deal say and what happens now?

1) Goods
There will be no tariffs or quotas on goods. This means the dooms day scenarios of Britain experiencing food or medicin shortages have been averted. However, even though there will be no tariffs and quoatas, trade will become far more complicated. As it is now, goods transports within the EU is basically seen as domestic. There's no red tape, no border checks, no nothing.
But goods moving between Britain and the EU from now on will be inspected at the border. All transports need the necessary paperwork in place, and there will be random checks to see that the goods corresponds to what it says in this paperwork. There needs to be data on the producer, the provider, the recipient, documents on the origin of products, local content percentages.... plenty of red tape, both ways. This will slow down trade and it is estimated that all the document handling will cost the UK alone roughly UKL 7 billion per year. Some of their closest trade partners, such as the Netherlands and Ireland may have similar cost increases, albeit as they're smaller countries, the totals will be lower. Also, whereas the UK gets this problem for trade with 27 countries, that account for two thirds of their foreign trade, for the 27 member states, the new additional costs only apply to their trade with one specific country, so it will not be quite as much as a problem. For Sweden the UK is our sixth largest trading partner, trailing Norway, Germany, the USA, Finland and Denmark, and accounting for roughly 5 % of the value of our total exports.
So while only 5% of our trade is affected, two thirds of Britain's trade is.

2) Services
A huge question mark. There is no specific trade agreement regarding services. As an EU member, British companies could not be discriminated against by other EU members, and eg banking licenses, various professional licenses, etc were automatically recognised throughout the union. Now it's pretty much up to each member state if they choose to recognise UK licenses and educations. This means a lot of British companies currently operating on the continent could be forced to close business, merge with local partners or go through external licensing processes. The effects on this will vary widely from business to business and country to country, so it is hard to estimate the effect. It's worth noting though that services account for 80% of the UK economy, so even small offsets here could have a large impact.
There is a lot of speculation on whether London can maintain its status as Europe's foremost financial hub after Brexit, and many finance companies have already moved at least part of their operations to eg Frankfurt, Paris and Luxembourg, to secure their presence inside the EU. A lot of US and Canadian companies have moved their European offices from London to Dublin, for the same reason.

3) Fishing
One of the toughest questions. British fishermen wanted the European competition removed from British fisheries, while the EU wanted continued access to British waters. The compromise is a 25% reduction of EU fishing quotas within British waters, and to be renegotiated five and a half years from now. Not sure how well this is received among the British fishermen that wanted Britain to take control of its borders.... :roll:

4) Irish border
The Good Friday agreement states that there must be no border controls on Ireland. As the UK leaves the EU, the border between Northern Ireland and The Irish Republic suddenly becomes the outer border of the EU. And the UK says it needs to take control of its borders and stop free movement. These three things are irreconcilable.
The solution, for the time being, is a compromise that the British are not all too happy about; that the border control will be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This means that technically Northern Ireland remains within the single market and more or less is treated like part of the Irish Republic. The Unionist parties in Northern Ireland are not happy about this, as it moves them closer to reunification with the rest of Ireland, but even they realize reinstating border controls on Ireland would be a recipe for disaster. The question is how this will be resolved.

5) Free movement of people
At the core of the European Union is the four freedoms. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people. While the British were rather happy with the first three, they seemed to have an issue with the fourth. But the concept is seen as indivisible from a European perspective. Different countries have different strengths, and you cannot start picking and choosing. Now that the UK has left the Union, they can control their own borders, and who is allowed in or out, but it seems they have not really understood it's a two way street.
Many retired Britons have bought houses in Spain and Portugal. They are only now realizing that as the UK is no longer part of EU, they either have to apply for status as permanent residents and go through a lot of paperwork that also may undermine thair standing in the UK, or they can stay for the maximum of a 90 day tourist visa. They can also no longer bring their pets. Or, they can, but it will be a lot of hassle and red tape with import documentation, veterinary inspections and such. It will become a lot harder. There is also the question of whether they will have access to health care, but it seems the UK and Spain are trying to work out a deal on that.
Also, as EU citizens, university students can choose to spend a semester or year at another university, anywhere in the EU, free of charge, through the Erasmus programme. This will no longer be an option for UK students. Well, except that Ireland has agreed to cover expenses for students from Northern Ireland, so they can still participate and will simply be considered Irish citizens for these intents and purposes.
Of course it will also be harder for EU citizens to go to the UK to work or study. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the UK economy. At present up to a third of people working in the NHS are from other EU countries. Now those already there will of course be able to get settled status, but how will recruitment work in the future? Will they all eventually be replaced by people from former colonies, like eg Pakistan or Jamaica?
Lots of Scandinavian youngsters spend a year or two in Britain, working odd jobs in pubs and retail, before getting on with life. How will this cheap labour be replaced? Will prices soar or pubs close? Well, stay tuned.

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-eu-uk-brexit-deal
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