We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

The Brown Wizard wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:24 am So what is the actual global mortality rate? How about developed countries vs banana republics?

Maybe excluding the states as any data coming out of there seems to be slanted by whichever political party is yanking the relevant dink of the day
This is a good site for the latest updates. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you scroll down you get a list of all countries. I usually sort them by deaths/million, for a better comparisson.
If you click on a specific country you get more in depth data, like per state in the USA, and graphs on new cases and new deaths.

I'd say no one knows the global mortality rate, because for one thing, we're only half way through, if even that, and statistics are not all that reliable, especially when we talk about third world countries or dictatorships. But if you look at deaths per million, you'll see that Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador are all worse of than the USA, and Mexico is almost as bad.

A rough estimate is probably that it is 5-10 times deadlier than a normal flu, or at least twice as bad as a particularly severe flu season.
But as I said, we still don't know what the final count will be.

The Spanish flu hung around for almost three years (2018-2020, I still don't know what was so special about the flu of 2017 that Trump keeps talking about), and the second wave was worse than the first. This one has still not completed a full year.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

Shit is getting worse. :(

Image
The United States is in the midst of one of the most severe surges of the coronavirus to date, with more new cases reported across the country on Friday than on any other single day since the pandemic began.

Since the start of October, the rise in cases has been steady and inexorable, with no plateau in sight. By the end of the day, more than 85,000 cases had been reported across the country, breaking the single-day record set on July 16 by about 10,000 cases.

By that measure, Friday was the worst day of the pandemic, and health experts warned of a further surge as cold weather sets in. The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has already risen 40 percent in the past month. Deaths have remained relatively flat but are often a lagging indicator.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/us/c ... es&pgtype=

I don’t know, I thought Donny said the US had turned a corner on this?
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

Here is a good site if you want to compare how well Canada and the USA have handled the outbreak so far:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.5051033
Overall, even Canada’s highest-reporting regions are low compared to places south of the border.

When you create a sorted list of the provinces and states (including Washington, D.C.), Canada's first province, Quebec, ranks 39th when it comes to recent cases per capita. Currently, 13 states have fewer average daily cases per million.

Even at their peaks, Canada’s provinces are still relatively low – Quebec tops the list for Canada at 46th overall in terms of highest all-time average daily cases per million people.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

The New England Journal of Medicin is probably the most esteemed publication when it comes to medical matters. Here is what they have to say regarding the pandemic and the US response:
Covid-19 has created a crisis throughout the world. This crisis has produced a test of leadership. With no good options to combat a novel pathogen, countries were forced to make hard choices about how to respond. Here in the United States, our leaders have failed that test. They have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.

The magnitude of this failure is astonishing. According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering,1 the United States leads the world in Covid-19 cases and in deaths due to the disease, far exceeding the numbers in much larger countries, such as China. The death rate in this country is more than double that of Canada, exceeds that of Japan, a country with a vulnerable and elderly population, by a factor of almost 50, and even dwarfs the rates in lower-middle-income countries, such as Vietnam, by a factor of almost 2000. Covid-19 is an overwhelming challenge, and many factors contribute to its severity. But the one we can control is how we behave. And in the United States we have consistently behaved poorly.

We know that we could have done better. China, faced with the first outbreak, chose strict quarantine and isolation after an initial delay. These measures were severe but effective, essentially eliminating transmission at the point where the outbreak began and reducing the death rate to a reported 3 per million, as compared with more than 500 per million in the United States. Countries that had far more exchange with China, such as Singapore and South Korea, began intensive testing early, along with aggressive contact tracing and appropriate isolation, and have had relatively small outbreaks. And New Zealand has used these same measures, together with its geographic advantages, to come close to eliminating the disease, something that has allowed that country to limit the time of closure and to largely reopen society to a prepandemic level. In general, not only have many democracies done better than the United States, but they have also outperformed us by orders of magnitude.

Why has the United States handled this pandemic so badly? We have failed at almost every step. We had ample warning, but when the disease first arrived, we were incapable of testing effectively and couldn’t provide even the most basic personal protective equipment to health care workers and the general public. And we continue to be way behind the curve in testing. While the absolute numbers of tests have increased substantially, the more useful metric is the number of tests performed per infected person, a rate that puts us far down the international list, below such places as Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia, countries that cannot boast the biomedical infrastructure or the manufacturing capacity that we have.2 Moreover, a lack of emphasis on developing capacity has meant that U.S. test results are often long delayed, rendering the results useless for disease control.

Although we tend to focus on technology, most of the interventions that have large effects are not complicated. The United States instituted quarantine and isolation measures late and inconsistently, often without any effort to enforce them, after the disease had spread substantially in many communities. Our rules on social distancing have in many places been lackadaisical at best, with loosening of restrictions long before adequate disease control had been achieved. And in much of the country, people simply don’t wear masks, largely because our leaders have stated outright that masks are political tools rather than effective infection control measures. The government has appropriately invested heavily in vaccine development, but its rhetoric has politicized the development process and led to growing public distrust.

The United States came into this crisis with enormous advantages. Along with tremendous manufacturing capacity, we have a biomedical research system that is the envy of the world. We have enormous expertise in public health, health policy, and basic biology and have consistently been able to turn that expertise into new therapies and preventive measures. And much of that national expertise resides in government institutions. Yet our leaders have largely chosen to ignore and even denigrate experts.

The response of our nation’s leaders has been consistently inadequate. The federal government has largely abandoned disease control to the states. Governors have varied in their responses, not so much by party as by competence. But whatever their competence, governors do not have the tools that Washington controls. Instead of using those tools, the federal government has undermined them. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which was the world’s leading disease response organization, has been eviscerated and has suffered dramatic testing and policy failures. The National Institutes of Health have played a key role in vaccine development but have been excluded from much crucial government decision making. And the Food and Drug Administration has been shamefully politicized,3 appearing to respond to pressure from the administration rather than scientific evidence. Our current leaders have undercut trust in science and in government,4 causing damage that will certainly outlast them. Instead of relying on expertise, the administration has turned to uninformed “opinion leaders” and charlatans who obscure the truth and facilitate the promulgation of outright lies.

Let’s be clear about the cost of not taking even simple measures. An outbreak that has disproportionately affected communities of color has exacerbated the tensions associated with inequality. Many of our children are missing school at critical times in their social and intellectual development. The hard work of health care professionals, who have put their lives on the line, has not been used wisely. Our current leadership takes pride in the economy, but while most of the world has opened up to some extent, the United States still suffers from disease rates that have prevented many businesses from reopening, with a resultant loss of hundreds of billions of dollars and millions of jobs. And more than 200,000 Americans have died. Some deaths from Covid-19 were unavoidable. But, although it is impossible to project the precise number of additional American lives lost because of weak and inappropriate government policies, it is at least in the tens of thousands in a pandemic that has already killed more Americans than any conflict since World War II.

Anyone else who recklessly squandered lives and money in this way would be suffering legal consequences. Our leaders have largely claimed immunity for their actions. But this election gives us the power to render judgment. Reasonable people will certainly disagree about the many political positions taken by candidates. But truth is neither liberal nor conservative. When it comes to the response to the largest public health crisis of our time, our current political leaders have demonstrated that they are dangerously incompetent. We should not abet them and enable the deaths of thousands more Americans by allowing them to keep their jobs.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Strangelove »

Per wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:26 pm The New England Journal of Medicin is probably the most esteemed publication when it comes to medical matters. Here is what they have to say regarding the pandemic and the US response:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-en ... 1602283219
The New England Journal of Politics
Guess you're the only one on the planet who hasn't heard the entire world has gone super political eh? Go to bed Per. 8-)
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Meds »

Strangelove wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:35 pm
Per wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:26 pm The New England Journal of Medicin is probably the most esteemed publication when it comes to medical matters. Here is what they have to say regarding the pandemic and the US response:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-en ... 1602283219
The New England Journal of Politics
Guess you're the only one on the planet who hasn't heard the entire world has gone super political eh? Go to bed Per. 8-)
Well said Doc.

The opening line of that NEJM article.....crisis.

Yeah. Crisis level mismanagement and fear mongering.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Per »

The view from London....

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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Doyle Hargraves »

1000 + cases. They should have tear gassed or fire hosed all those losers on Granville St on Saturday. I’m not racial profiling but there was a high pctg of South Asians down there looking at video and pictures. Then they go back home to their own home of 20. Not surprising Fraser Health and in particular Surrey/Langley/Abbotsford is getting annihilated by Covid right now.
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Megaterio Llamas »

Van the Man has released his new, highly anticipated anti covid lockdown music.






No more lockdown
No more government overreach
No more fascist police
Disturbing our peace
No more taking of our freedom
And our God-given rights
Pretending it's for our safety
When it's really to enslave
Who's running our country?
Who's running our world?
Examine it closely
And watch it unfurl
No more lockdown
No more threats
No more Imperial College
Santas making up crooked facts
No more lockdown
No more pulling the wool over our eyes
No more celebrities telling us
Telling us what we'rе supposed to feel
No more status quo
Put your shoulder to thе wind

No more lockdown
No more lockdown
No more lockdown
No more lockdown
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Megaterio Llamas »

el rey del mambo
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by The Brown Wizard »

Doyle Hargraves wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:36 pm. I’m not racial profiling but there was a high pctg of South Asians....
Isnt that exactly what that means?

:)

Back in the glory days there was a rumble against a bunch of [mod edit]s and they all showed up with hockey sticks. It started out as a scrap but it ended with a ball hockey game in the parks' shallow outdoor pool.

Cultural differences were bridged that day Doyle
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Chef Boi RD »

Let’s face it, Vancouver is a shit show now because we were too welcoming of foreign investment after Expo 86, biggest mistake. We small city syndrome and wanted to compete with Toronto and Montreal. I hate to over development of this city, it’s fucking gross. The city has lost its identity. I’m no racist, but we opened this city up way too much, now my kids and their kids will never be able to afford a house here not to mention I don’t recognize this city anymore. Vancouver definitely doesn’t feel like home anymore. I’m outta here as soon as soon as I retire
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Re: We're All Doomed!™ (the Conquest, War, Famine, and Death Thread)

Post by Doyle Hargraves »

Chef Boi RD wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 am Let’s face it, Vancouver is a shit show now because we were too welcoming of foreign investment after Expo 86, biggest mistake. We small city syndrome and wanted to compete with Toronto and Montreal. I hate to over development of this city, it’s fucking gross. The city has lost its identity. I’m no racist, but we opened this city up way too much, now my kids and their kids will never be able to afford a house here not to mention I don’t recognize this city anymore. Vancouver definitely doesn’t feel like home anymore. I’m outta here as soon as soon as I retire
I thought you just had one kid.

Yes the city is an urban blight. It’s infrastructure is fifty years behind where it should be, the housing prices have rocketed out of control. I’m gone somewhere between 5 - 8 years. I’ve lived here for all my 50 years and it isn’t home to me either.
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