Yup. There is now a deal in place, at least provisionally.
It has been signed by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK. It has also been approved of the European and British parliaments. Technically things could still go awry though as the deal has to be accepted by all 27 member states, and at least two countries will put it up for voting in their repspective parliaments, so you never know. All member states have veto rights, so even though the Commission has been in close contact with all 27 governments during the negotiations to make sure that they are all on board, domestic politics somewhere could lead to eg Spain or France deciding to put in a veto and rip it to shreds. It's not very likely though. Both sides benefit from an orderly exit instead of Britain crashing out of the Union with no deal in place.
So what does the deal say and what happens now?
1)
Goods
There will be no tariffs or quotas on goods. This means the dooms day scenarios of Britain experiencing food or medicin shortages have been averted. However, even though there will be no tariffs and quoatas, trade will become far more complicated. As it is now, goods transports within the EU is basically seen as domestic. There's no red tape, no border checks, no nothing.
But goods moving between Britain and the EU from now on will be inspected at the border. All transports need the necessary paperwork in place, and there will be random checks to see that the goods corresponds to what it says in this paperwork. There needs to be data on the producer, the provider, the recipient, documents on the origin of products, local content percentages.... plenty of red tape, both ways. This will slow down trade and it is estimated that all the document handling will cost the UK alone roughly UKL 7 billion per year. Some of their closest trade partners, such as the Netherlands and Ireland may have similar cost increases, albeit as they're smaller countries, the totals will be lower. Also, whereas the UK gets this problem for trade with 27 countries, that account for two thirds of their foreign trade, for the 27 member states, the new additional costs only apply to their trade with one specific country, so it will not be quite as much as a problem. For Sweden the UK is our sixth largest trading partner, trailing Norway, Germany, the USA, Finland and Denmark, and accounting for roughly 5 % of the value of our total exports.
So while only 5% of our trade is affected, two thirds of Britain's trade is.
2)
Services
A huge question mark. There is no specific trade agreement regarding services. As an EU member, British companies could not be discriminated against by other EU members, and eg banking licenses, various professional licenses, etc were automatically recognised throughout the union. Now it's pretty much up to each member state if they choose to recognise UK licenses and educations. This means a lot of British companies currently operating on the continent could be forced to close business, merge with local partners or go through external licensing processes. The effects on this will vary widely from business to business and country to country, so it is hard to estimate the effect. It's worth noting though that services account for 80% of the UK economy, so even small offsets here could have a large impact.
There is a lot of speculation on whether London can maintain its status as Europe's foremost financial hub after Brexit, and many finance companies have already moved at least part of their operations to eg Frankfurt, Paris and Luxembourg, to secure their presence inside the EU. A lot of US and Canadian companies have moved their European offices from London to Dublin, for the same reason.
3)
Fishing
One of the toughest questions. British fishermen wanted the European competition removed from British fisheries, while the EU wanted continued access to British waters. The compromise is a 25% reduction of EU fishing quotas within British waters, and to be renegotiated five and a half years from now. Not sure how well this is received among the British fishermen that wanted Britain to take control of its borders....
4)
Irish border
The Good Friday agreement states that there must be no border controls on Ireland. As the UK leaves the EU, the border between Northern Ireland and The Irish Republic suddenly becomes the outer border of the EU. And the UK says it needs to take control of its borders and stop free movement. These three things are irreconcilable.
The solution, for the time being, is a compromise that the British are not all too happy about; that the border control will be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This means that technically Northern Ireland remains within the single market and more or less is treated like part of the Irish Republic. The Unionist parties in Northern Ireland are not happy about this, as it moves them closer to reunification with the rest of Ireland, but even they realize reinstating border controls on Ireland would be a recipe for disaster. The question is how this will be resolved.
5)
Free movement of people
At the core of the European Union is the four freedoms. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people. While the British were rather happy with the first three, they seemed to have an issue with the fourth. But the concept is seen as indivisible from a European perspective. Different countries have different strengths, and you cannot start picking and choosing. Now that the UK has left the Union, they can control their own borders, and who is allowed in or out, but it seems they have not really understood it's a two way street.
Many retired Britons have bought houses in Spain and Portugal. They are only now realizing that as the UK is no longer part of EU, they either have to apply for status as permanent residents and go through a lot of paperwork that also may undermine thair standing in the UK, or they can stay for the maximum of a 90 day tourist visa. They can also no longer bring their pets. Or, they can, but it will be a lot of hassle and red tape with import documentation, veterinary inspections and such. It will become a lot harder. There is also the question of whether they will have access to health care, but it seems the UK and Spain are trying to work out a deal on that.
Also, as EU citizens, university students can choose to spend a semester or year at another university, anywhere in the EU, free of charge, through the Erasmus programme. This will no longer be an option for UK students. Well, except that Ireland has agreed to cover expenses for students from Northern Ireland, so they can still participate and will simply be considered Irish citizens for these intents and purposes.
Of course it will also be harder for EU citizens to go to the UK to work or study. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the UK economy. At present up to a third of people working in the NHS are from other EU countries. Now those already there will of course be able to get settled status, but how will recruitment work in the future? Will they all eventually be replaced by people from former colonies, like eg Pakistan or Jamaica?
Lots of Scandinavian youngsters spend a year or two in Britain, working odd jobs in pubs and retail, before getting on with life. How will this cheap labour be replaced? Will prices soar or pubs close? Well, stay tuned.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-eu-uk-brexit-deal
As jubilant Brexit supporters gather to celebrate the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, Scotland is digging in to its position as the last bastion of political resistance.
