Luongo - yes or no?

[Lancer]

I know I shredded Luongo after the last game but I voted to give him a long-term contract. That said it's all up to Luongo. Does he want to be here? As I said before in other posts, if he wants to be here and lead a team to the playoffs instead of jumping onto the best team then sign him till the cows come home. He's not in the same league as Roy or Brodeur, but he's easily the best goalie this team has ever had so if he really wants to stay and make a career in Vancouver, why not let him? The only limiting factor may be how much he wants. Thing is, if he wants a Cup or to be on a contender he may want to reconside whether he wants to be the highest-paid goalie in the league.

If he doesn't want to be here. If the stories of his wife and him crying over going to Vancouver are true and he really doesn't want to live this far north, then he has to go - and go this summer. If it's a matter of Gillis offering him a long term deal at $7-7.5 million with a NTC and he balks or waits and sees whether Gillis can field a better team, then the time to trade him arrives. I could live with him making $8 million over the course of the contract, but even so, how many Vezinas has he won? If he really wants to stay here and win a Cup here, it would be hard to explain him getting greedy at this point. If he's willing to take what's fair and leave some on the table in order to get a Cup, then sign him to whatever term he wants.

The 'trade Luongo' camp trots out the fact that Schneider is having a fine season and is an excellent prospect. Still, it's a different league and who knows just how well he'll fare in the long-term? In the short-term I think we'll see a lot more of the Schneider we saw this season, and it doesn't bode well for next season in that case. Like I said, if Gillis goes this route, then perhaps it's time to do a moderate make-over of the club and start a new generation (like the Luongo edition is in any way old) of the team. We know what we have in Luongo, and known quantities are nice to have when it comes to talent.

Anybody ever think of trading Schneider? The return wouldn't be nearly as huge, but it would be nice in a package deal, say, for a high 1st-rounder and/or an impact youngster. If Luongo signs long term, it would make sense, as the kid will never start unless Luongo suffers another freak injury.

[the toucan kid]

I couldn't agree more, whether Luongo stays or goes isn't an easy question to answer. The Canucks without Luongo would be a team that finishes middle of the pack and while they may make the playoffs, based on this years performances, they would be in a dog fight to beat St. Louis in the first round which would have been a seven game series sans Luongo. Chicago would then have probably dispatched the Canucks in four or five. That is how valuable Luongo is to the Canucks. His ability alone makes an average team a potential spoiler, and both Luongo's agent and Gillis are well aware of how that effects his value as a pending free agent, including the ability to dictate where he ends up.

Based on future salary demands, signing both the Sedins and Luongo to long term deals with NMC's, particularly in light of the teams performance over the last year, will pretty much guarantee that the Canucks will remain an average team with an exceptional goaltender for the next few years. After Hodgson and Schneider there is not a lot of immediately available talent in the farm system, particularly on defence. It is of some concern that in post season play, Salo in spite of injuries, shows as probably the best Canuck defence man and Ohlund, although he has lost a step, was quietly consistent and merits secondary consideration after Salo. Factor in the potential pay hike for Kesler, and the Canucks down the road are looking to fill out the roster with average talent free agents until they acquire enough young affordable players either through the draft or if possible via trades to give them some organizational depth. While the signing of a "star" free agent may improve the Canucks chances it certainly is no guarantee of team success.

Using the Chicago series as a bench mark for future post season play, for the next two years, the Canucks to become legitimate cup contenders will have to ice a team that can beat Chicago and any team that may subsequently eliminate Chicago. The core of the team as it is now constituted is not good enough to do so, as the series demonstrated. That alone will potentially effect the tenor of contract negotiations between the Sedins and Canucks management, and depending on those results any number of scenarios may evolve which may or may not result in Luongo remaining a Canuck, including his right as a free agent to go to a team which in his view is more likely to go deep into the playoffs.

If Luongo is traded it will not be because he cost the Canucks the Chicago series. He absolutely did not, and if anything it was his presence that prolonged the agony of cup hungry Canuck fans. It is his play that merits greatest consideration for the limited post season success the team had. The wild card in all of this may be Schneider. If he is the real deal, then I can see Gillis giving him a chance to prove it and next season have him share goal tending duties with Luongo. If Schneider can carry the load in the NHL, as he has done in Manitoba, then it is possible that Luongo is traded, subject to any NMC, not because of his play in game six in Chicago, but because of his trade value, the potential success of the Canucks at the time (which may factor into Luongo subsequently electing to pursue his rights as a free agent), and the salary of Schneider, which in turn leads to other scenarios as to how the Canucks may evolve under Gillis.

Beautifully put Arbour. I see now all I needed to win this debate in the past is your power of articulation. Seriously, how can anyone argue with that?

[Arbour]

Beautifully put Arbour. I see now all I needed to win this debate in the past is your power of articulation. Seriously, how can anyone argue with that?

Thanks. The few points that I managed to come up with are only some the factors Gillis is going to have to consider. He is faced with the unenviable task of rebuilding to a certain extent while somehow maintaining the status quo. Unfortunately for Gillis previous regimes never had much of a drafting strategy and his emphasis on player development is still a few years from reaping dividends.

[Island Nucklehead]

LOL Touc, win the debate eh?

I have more than a few issues with that post, most of which involve us failing to compete as much as the BlackCocks being a truly better team...

You don't just cut loose a franchise player because you don't think you can afford a team around him, you make your team fit. With Luongo in goal this team should make the playoffs. The remainder is going to require some good picks by MG and his staff, this season was successful in that regard and there's no reason to think next year wouldn't be as well (thank God we don't have Sundin for another season at $10M).

The fact that Gillis seems willing to give at least Hodgson, and to a certain degree Schneider and Grabner, spots on next years team gives me hope that help from within could be coming, and that adding another defenseman will give us yet another team capable of competing for the division.

At the start of the year, most people wouldn't pick Anaheim to beat San Jose. It's all about who's hot when, and that has nothing to do with the GM. We should know that better than anyone, as we peaked a little too early, even before the St. Louis series.

If Luongo gets traded, I'll agree, it's because he won't sign an extension. If we trade him for any other reason MG should be put in the looney bin and used for taser testing.

[the toucan kid]

Well we all want him to stay and are willing to pay what it costs, but lets not forget he's a 31 year old franchise player not a 23 year old one which is almost the norm nowadays. I think Luongo has plenty left in the tank, but he's not going to be around for a "generation" as you like to call it.

I just happen to have had no faith in San Jose and actually picked Anaheim to win the cup at the outset. Not that my predictions are generally all that wise.

[okanaganboy]

Keep him at all costs. Luongo has made this team what it is today. Cloutier and Auld scared the crap out of me. Luongo gave us that chance at success. Look what happened when he was injured and how we bounced back when he got healthy. Trading him away would take a team full of Ryan Kesler's to even out the loss of one Luongo. There are no guarantees in goaltending. Once we lose him, there's no going back!

[levelheaded]

Once we lose him, there's no going back!

Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm glad this board only seems to have sane people on it, and the majority of real Canucks fans know that players like Luongo don't come around very often.

Sure Luongo might have cost us the Chicago series (a very arguable point, I still blame the defence), but if we hadn't had him in net this year there wouldn't have been a second round or likely even a playoffs to even speak of. If anyone really feels like we should trade him they're suffering from some sort of psychosis and need to be institutionalized as soon as possible. There is no realistic return that could ever equal what we'd be giving up in Luongo.

[Farhan Lalji]

My Opinion.

YES with an IF......NO with a BUT.

My first choice would be Yes.....sign Luongo to a long term deal (i.e. 7 years!). However...

1) The deal must be signed this summer.
2) Gillis MUST build this team around another massive strength other than Luongo (i.e. massive team speed, etc.).

If neither of these requirements are met, then I propose that the Canucks trade Luongo for what-would-probably-be a tremendous package this summer, and go in a new direction.

[Sid Dithers]

Once we lose him, there's no going back!

Going back?

Where have we been with him that's so great that we fear not going back there?

[Farhan Lalji]

Once we lose him, there's no going back!

Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm glad this board only seems to have sane people on it, and the majority of real Canucks fans know that players like Luongo don't come around very often.

Sure Luongo might have cost us the Chicago series (a very arguable point, I still blame the defence), but if we hadn't had him in net this year there wouldn't have been a second round or likely even a playoffs to even speak of. If anyone really feels like we should trade him they're suffering from some sort of psychosis and need to be institutionalized as soon as possible. There is no realistic return that could ever equal what we'd be giving up in Luongo.

Few Points:

1) Luongo did NOT cost us the series against Chicago. It's not even arguable as far as I go. Mental fragility and very inept defensive play (particularly when we were leading) was what cost us the game.

2) If Luongo doesn't sign a long term contract, we lose him for SCOTT FREE...and get nothing back. Perhaps this is worth considering.

3) The Canucks need to build massive strengths other than Luongo. For the past three seasons, the Canucks have not achieved this (with the possible exception of the 06/07 season where the Canucks played an air-tight defensive system....although even in the case, that system was implemented out of necessity to compensate for a lack of talent....as opposed to deliberately trying to dominate opponents with that style and strength).

A superstar goalie can be a crucial piece to the puzzle (provided that in this cap era, he isn't occupying too much cap space) but a team NEEDS to have other massive strengths in which the team can win.

In 2004 - Calgary had major toughness and defensive soundness. All of the NJ teams that won those cups were the same.
In 1999, Buffalo dominated with team speed and grit.

These are examples of teams that, despite certain shortcomings, found ways to make a run at a Stanley Cup with a superstar goalie....due to the fact that they had OTHER elements to their game which were massive strengths.

At current -

-The Canucks have a "good" offense, but it's not a dominating strength.

-The Canucks have a "good" defense (average in post-season) but it's not a dominating strength (particulary when it matters most)

-The Canucks have a "good" Special Teams, but neither their PP or their PK is a dominating strength (although at times, both of these were exceptional).

-The Canucks have average/below average team speed and physicality.

IF you are going to try and build a "well balanced" team that is solid in all areas, you NEED to have the personnel for it. In other words - you need to have a DEEP roster of talented players (many players of which are young/inexpensive/overachieving players).

The Anaheim Ducks from two years ago were a perfect example of this (i.e. a deep roster that had the luxury of dispersing their strengths throughout their line-up, due to the fact that they had many young players that were overachieving). Those Colorado and Detroit teams were also of the same mold (although in their case, they could literally go out and buy their deep talent....and weren't quite as reliant on their "young and overachieving" players).

IF a team does NOT have a deep talent pool however, then strengths need to be CONCENTRATED on certain areas in order to create a massive strength (even if it's at the expense of having a weakness......which can then be compensated by the system.....for example - the New Jersey Devils trapping, due to the fact that their offense was only "above average" or "average").

Although the Canucks did well this year, they also proved that they do NOT fall in to that category that Anaheim did two years ago (i.e. overflowing talent).

Hence - I propose that the Canucks, in this off-season, find a way to CONCENTRATE their strength (either on offense or defense), even if it means having a weakness (which can then be compensated).

Either the Canucks say "fuck the offense" and build a WALL around superstar goalie Luongo (i.e. win games 1-0, 2-1), or, they should focus on building a higher quality offense.....with the expectation that their superstar goalie will continue to make spectacular saves....while also allowing the Canucks to significantly open up (reminscient of their WCE era days) and dominate with a high octane offense.

Either add more guys like Raymond (i.e. build team speed), or add more guys like Bernier and Rypien (i.e. build more grit) on top of that.

[the toucan kid]

In 2004 - Calgary had major toughness and defensive soundness. All of the NJ teams that won those cups were the same.
In 1999, Buffalo dominated with team speed and grit.

All those examples were before the lockout. Since, none of those teams (but a vastly different Sabres team than the one you're referring too) have had very much success. I think our model now is pretty much the one you're referring to there. It's not bad, but it's behind the times. The Red Wings dominate by having overwhelming talent, let's not over complicate things.

[okanaganboy]

Well put farhan.

[Fred]

The question that needs a review is, are the Canucks likely to win the Cup in the next 1-2 years.

If the answer is no then make the move and bring in replacements and draft picks. As an example would you get TB pick for Luongo, that's a team poised to do well but needs a goalie or when I think about it how about Lecavalier for Luongo and then sign Hossa UFA to go along with him. Schnieder is likely at the point where nothing new can be learned in the AHL.

If the answer is yes we can win the Cup in that period then you have to sign him to an extension and trade Schnieder for a pick and bring up Hodgson and Grabbner. Let go Sundin and hopefully maybe sign Neidermyer x 2.

But the question remians are we going to win the Cup in the next 2 years ?

[Island Nucklehead]

Well if we trade Luongo we might as well ditch the Sedins too. Major issue with this is that we can't talk extension with Luongo until after July 1, and if we want to keep the Sedins it behooves us to get them under contract by then.

I'd love to get a guy like Hedman, Tavares or Duschene (who played with Hodgson in Brampton). All/any would go a long way to rebuilding a franchise. I don't want to cross the rebuild bridge just yet, because I believe this team can do damage in the playoffs and throwing Schneider in behind a shitty team could destroy him.

I don't really want to touch that Lecavalier contract. It's pretty risky at 7.2M/year til the guy is 39 years old. Although, if they offer us him and the second for Luongo and our first, it might be worth a look.

[the toucan kid]

The question that needs a review is, are the Canucks likely to win the Cup in the next 1-2 years.

If the answer is no then make the move and bring in replacements and draft picks. As an example would you get TB pick for Luongo, that's a team poised to do well but needs a goalie or when I think about it how about Lecavalier for Luongo and then sign Hossa UFA to go along with him. Schnieder is likely at the point where nothing new can be learned in the AHL.

If the answer is yes we can win the Cup in that period then you have to sign him to an extension and trade Schnieder for a pick and bring up Hodgson and Grabbner. Let go Sundin and hopefully maybe sign Neidermyer x 2.

But the question remians are we going to win the Cup in the next 2 years ?

No, not unless MG gets another Luongo like coup of a deal or something equally unlikely occurs.

Therefore I agree, time to start shipping out the veterans. While Luongo is 31ish, I think goaltenders usually go longer than forwards and D, so if he is willing to stay, he can still be part of the next core. There are other guys too, but the Sedins, just aren't good enough to build a team around and it's time to quit trying to win on a disadvantaged model.