The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

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Cornuck
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The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Cornuck » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:41 pm

I mean after all, Daniel is only 13th in league scoring right now (3rd if only count LW's). Henrik? 26th. Why would we want resign these guys? Surely they're only playing like this because it's a contract year.

Henrik - 5th in assists. Yeah, but look at the losers above him: Malkin, Savard, Crosby, Thornton & Backstrom.

Neither of them have missed a game this year! What's up with that? Those brittle Swedes must be playing injured and depriving a good Canadian kid of a job.

It seems that we're stuck trying to hobble together a first line so we can bump these guys back to the 2nd where they belong. They obviously can't stand the pressure of 1st line status. I mean after all they've got Bernier to work with - I mean damn - He's 52nd in scoring for RW's!! What more could they ask for?

But you have too look past this contract year. Henrik hasn't missed a game since the 03-04 season. But his brittle brother is worse! He's missed a game in the same span - one freakin' game! What is up with these guys? A Swedish plot of some kind?

But seriously - it is hard to find fault with these guys. If you're going to criticize anything, it would be their playoff performance where their stats have dropped. Daniel - 0.7 pts/game vs .41 pts/game in the playoffs - that's a drop. Henrik? .69 pts/game vs .46 pts/game in the playoffs. Sundin? 1.01 pts/game vs .89 pts/game. I guess it's not too unusual to drop a bit come playoff time.

I've posted before about how since these guys are a package, we are limited somewhat in our movement. Really that only becomes a problem when juggling lines, finding a 3rd winger or trade time. Is it that much of a limitation?

They seem happy in Vancouver and that's great. Maybe they'll take a hometown discount. But I hope that Gillis doesn't get cheap when it comes time to resign them. I'd like to see them retire as Canucks.
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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by the toucan kid » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:06 pm

The damning criticism is simply this, at the end of the day Hendrik doesn't score and so we get a total of about 65 goals (factor in the tap in's they give to other players) out of first line. That's not exceptional, and when we don't have much of a second line (until now) it means the team is going to be offensively challenged if we put 14 million into two players who only score at the pace of one superstar, who would make 10 million MAX.

You make the point of the Sedins being consistent, and healthy - not a worthless trait - but they are consistent to the point where they won't be improving. Paying these guys each first line wages is just not cost effective. If they ask for more than 10 cumulative, we should let 'em walk.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Ronning's Ghost » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:36 pm

That superstar would still need two linemates to play with, as Daniel and Henrik need one, so I think the more reasonable calculation is, what should you spend on a first (or maybe 1B) line ? Without certain knowledge of future salary caps, that is a very difficult question (and part of why Gillis gets paid about 20 times what I do), but think it would make sense to offer one third of that number to each Sedin.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Todd Bersnoozi » Sun Jan 04, 2009 1:24 am

The Sedins have proved that they are good regular season players. They are not elite superstars, but they are very good players. They are a little miscast as first line players though, but a little better than 2nd line players, kind of a 1B.

As u mentioned, the question with the Sedins is.... can they carry the team in the playoffs. So far, the answer is no. Last year down the stretch when the team was fighting to for a playoff spot, the Sedins were stone cold. Their play in the playoffs to date have been OK, but nothing spectacular. Let's face it, they are NOT playoff warriors, just like their predessor Markus Naslund. I'm hoping they can play a strong supporting cast role though, with guys like Sundin and Lui to carry the load.

PS: Don't let the stats cloud your judgement. They are on a bit of a hot streak right now, so their stats are kind of inflated. Also, the Sedins tend to rack up points early in the season when the games don't mean as much, but when the checking gets tighter later in the season and the games have more pressure and stake, they tend to fade.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by dr.dork » Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:13 am

Todd Bersnoozi wrote: PS: Don't let the stats cloud your judgement. They are on a bit of a hot streak right now, so their stats are kind of inflated. Also, the Sedins tend to rack up points early in the season when the games don't mean as much, but when the checking gets tighter later in the season and the games have more pressure and stake, they tend to fade.
I think they are probably worth about $10M as a pair, perhaps a little more. At $7M per each, I think I would be inclined to say "no" depending on what other options might be available. But it is certainly true that their production will be hard to replace.

The problem wrt the playoffs and the end of the season is not necessarily their fault alone. When the other team (in the playoffs and down the stretch) decides to focus on your only scoring threat, you're in trouble. We need secondary scoring. I agree they can't carry the team all by themselves, but then neither can Alfredson, Spezza and Heatley. The WCE era was one dimensional as well, and they were shut down in the playoffs as well.

I guess we will see what happens, but they are very good players. If they can't do better on the powerplay WITH Sundin, then they really are one dimensional and their value drops.

The other big factor in signing them is the whole cap issue. Where is the cap going next year and the year after ? It looks like we now really need to resign Lou (hopefully in the summer) because it is pretty clear Schneider isn't there yet.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Larry Goodenough » Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:21 am

Todd Bersnoozi wrote:The Sedins have proved that they are good regular season players. They are not elite superstars, but they are very good players. They are a little miscast as first line players though, but a little better than 2nd line players, kind of a 1B.

As u mentioned, the question with the Sedins is.... can they carry the team in the playoffs. So far, the answer is no. Last year down the stretch when the team was fighting to for a playoff spot, the Sedins were stone cold. Their play in the playoffs to date have been OK, but nothing spectacular. Let's face it, they are NOT playoff warriors, just like their predessor Markus Naslund. I'm hoping they can play a strong supporting cast role though, with guys like Sundin and Lui to carry the load.

PS: Don't let the stats cloud your judgement. They are on a bit of a hot streak right now, so their stats are kind of inflated. Also, the Sedins tend to rack up points early in the season when the games don't mean as much, but when the checking gets tighter later in the season and the games have more pressure and stake, they tend to fade.
The problem I always have with the "they are not first line players" argument is no one defines what a first line player should be. What is your definition?

If there are 30 teams in the league and they all have first lines, that makes 90 first line players. As pointed out above, Henrik is 5th in assists in the whole league. The are both in the top 30 in scoring - which makes them in the top third of those 90 players mentioned. They are two of the top 30 forwards in the whole world (population 6 billion) yet they aren't "first line players"?

For me, the debate should be whether a long term contract is a good idea before they have any playoff success. Right now they are Swedish versions of Joe Thornton.

I would also add Naslund had 9 pts in the 7 games against Calgary in the 04 playoffs while playing with a broken elbow. He also did not have Bertuzzi on his line. He also had 14 pts in the 14 playoff games he played in the year before. He might not necessarily be labeled a "warrior", but he was not a shinking violet either.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Sid Dithers » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:17 pm

The Sedins are certainly worth a price. But what price? Second-line dollars, yes...first-dollars, no.
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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by dangler » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:37 pm

[quote="Larry Goodenough
The problem I always have with the "they are not first line players" argument is no one defines what a first line player should be. What is your definition?
[/quote]

What a firstline player should be: Someone who is capable of scoring while facing other teams top shutdown checking lines .Someone who's success is not dependant on secondary scoring.

If not mistaken the Sedins did have a somewhat successful playoff in'03 I believe,when the WCE was still one of the leagues best lines.As it is present-day, they are the best second line in the league and believe they will be willing to accept 2nd line money IF the club can commit to putting together a true #1 line with the money they leave on the table after the hometown discount.

If they were to ask for $7 mill. each(which I doubt),then sure, let them walk. But if they are willing to sign for a reasonable amount then it would be crazy to let them go.Players of that calibre are in short supply in todays 30 team NHL.
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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Fred » Sun Jan 04, 2009 1:12 pm

The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price
Wrong question ! the question should be WHAT are they worth and how will they fit in to a Cap Struture

Next season the Canuck Cap current figure is US$29 Million

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=VAN

It's hard not to believe Hodgson will not be in the line up and it would be great if Grabner gets a try.

The lower tier players are interchangable, the Cap may go down with players like Jaffray and Bolduc coming in. The likes of Pyatt, Bernier maybe gone. We have 4 good "D" and assuming they resign Ohlund that will be 5 good "D"

Can we afford to resign Sundin for a whole season ??? hard to say.

At the end of the day I can see the Sedins as being worth around US$5/season

The interesting one will be Burrows IMO how much will they have to shell out for him, and who will replace Pyatt and Bernier(Bernier is getting 70% of the Sedins salary and Pyatt about 50%) and for how much
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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by dr.dork » Sun Jan 04, 2009 2:09 pm

Sid Dithers wrote:The Sedins are certainly worth a price. But what price? Second-line dollars, yes...first-dollars, no.
Name your max dollar value then.

I agree with toucan that it is around $10M, but I might be willing to go to $11 (total) if the term is shorter. I wouldn't be opposed to a longer term if the dollar value is lower. Don't know if I like the whole no movement clause, but anything like that needs to be traded off vs the dollar values.

They are not superstars. Superstars make $8 - $10M each. They are the next wrung down but either way they are both very good. I don't think we can easily replace them (easily) with one superstar (that we could hope to land), mainly because that is an unknown entity. Hossa, Gaborik or Kovalchuk + a $2M dollar player (that means someone like Bernier) could replace the Sedin's, fit in the locker room (yadda yadda yadda).

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Cannie » Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:38 pm

There are a few things to keep in mind when entering contract negotiations with the Sedins.
(1) Neither one has ever expressed (publicly) anything other than satisfaction with their situation in Vancouver. Their families are settled and they have a strong Scandinavian culture and positive dressing room in which they are not expected to be leaders/spokespersons. They would almost certainly bear a greater load if they were to move to another team.
(2) They have removed a point of leverage by stating that they wish to play together for the rest of their careers. Which leads to:
(3) The fact that because they are a joint proposition, they are virtually immune to another team swooping in with an irresistible and unmatchable offer sheet. No team in the league would have enough cap space and the wherewithal to hinge their future success on these two (very good) players.

The Sedins are a unique entity, and for the reasons cleverly documented in the opening to this thread, they can be a vital part of a successful Canucks team (regular season AND playoffs) for years to come.

3 years/16 million for each of them.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by the toucan kid » Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:45 pm

I would give them both 5 years 25, but I'm doubtful it will be in that range. Hopefully their lack of leverage comes into play and Mike plays hardball on this one.

As for a line mate for the "superstar" that will on his own replace the twins? Sure you have to find someone to play with him, but if you can get him for 8-9 million and then get a top six guy in the 3-5 range, you've replaced (if not enhanced) the Twins production at about the same price.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Sid Dithers » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:36 pm

dr.dork wrote:
Sid Dithers wrote:The Sedins are certainly worth a price. But what price? Second-line dollars, yes...first-dollars, no.
Name your max dollar value then.
Everyone must keep in mind that the salary cap will almost certainly be going down, and maybe down sharply. I say anything more than $9 mill/year for the two is a no-go. First and foremost, adequate money must be allotted to a first-line. If 9 mill won't do it for the Sedins, then I'd hold off signing them until a top line is in place. There's has to be a pecking order, and Hank and Dank should not be at the top of it.
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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Broda » Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:12 pm

IF you have been listening to the hot stove at all on HNIC Pierre Labrun has pointed out that the likelyhood of the salary cap dropping next year is small because the revenues come in at the start of year apparently. So its not this next year everyone needs to be worried about its the year after. That being said its going to be tough to figure out what to pay anyone. I figure if the economy keeps tanking baddly as it likely will. The cap will probably drop something like 7-10 mil the season after next i would figure. And that might be a small estimate. Regardless im not aware of how or if the restructuring of contracts is possible or work. Wondering if anyone has some input on that or if you can put restrictions in contracts like the sedins combined can only make say 15% of avalible cap space per season.
Anyways i would pay the sedins at most 5.5-6 per each. They did take a home town discount last time apparently. So hopefully there salaries going up another two mil each will suffice for a large swedish grin.

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Re: The 'Sisters' aren't worth the price

Post by Larry Goodenough » Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:40 pm

dangler wrote:[quote="Larry Goodenough
The problem I always have with the "they are not first line players" argument is no one defines what a first line player should be. What is your definition?
What a firstline player should be: Someone who is capable of scoring while facing other teams top shutdown checking lines .Someone who's success is not dependant on secondary scoring.

If not mistaken the Sedins did have a somewhat successful playoff in'03 I believe,when the WCE was still one of the leagues best lines.As it is present-day, they are the best second line in the league and believe they will be willing to accept 2nd line money IF the club can commit to putting together a true #1 line with the money they leave on the table after the hometown discount.

If they were to ask for $7 mill. each(which I doubt),then sure, let them walk. But if they are willing to sign for a reasonable amount then it would be crazy to let them go.Players of that calibre are in short supply in todays 30 team NHL.[/quote]

?

By your own definition they are first liners then. They always face the other team's top defenders and as Cornuck pointed out Daniel is 13th in the league in scoring while Henrik is 5th in assists.

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