Playing with Stats: What is the actual value of the Sedins?
Moderator: Referees
-
- MVP
- Posts: 232
- Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:37 am
- Location: SK
Playing with Stats: What is the actual value of the Sedins?
There is a thread on CDC that mentions somebody "hearing from somebody I know who heard from somebody I know (right ) that ATL was thinking of trading Kovalchuk for the Twins.
I could care less about the validity of the rumour, but it got me thinking because it brought up the whole debate again of whether the Sedins are first line players, and how it sounds stupid to trade 2 80pt players for 1.
Doesn't make sense, right? Except that many of Henrik and Daniel's points come on the same goal, which essentially means they are double dipping.
I combed through all 82 boxscores from last year and here is what I came up with:
Daniel was involved INDIVIDUALLY on 21 goals
Henrik was involved INDIVIDUALLY on 23 goals
together they COMBINED for points on 53 goals
So ultimately, the were involved in one way or another in 97 UNIQUE goals or "point opportunities" (as opposed to just adding their two point totals which would have been 150pts from last year).
Kovalchuk, for example, was involved in 87 unique goals last year.
So essentially, don't both twins together equal the offensive output of 1 elite player? Would it not make sense then, and not be the end of the world, to trade them both for one player who is in the 85pt plus category?
Also, wouldn't have 1 person with that output be better than needing two, because that would allow for two other people on that line to have scoring potential, rather than just one more?
I wasn't sure what to make of all this, so I fired it off to Mirtle, and a few other bloggers too to see if they could help, but what what do you all think?
I could care less about the validity of the rumour, but it got me thinking because it brought up the whole debate again of whether the Sedins are first line players, and how it sounds stupid to trade 2 80pt players for 1.
Doesn't make sense, right? Except that many of Henrik and Daniel's points come on the same goal, which essentially means they are double dipping.
I combed through all 82 boxscores from last year and here is what I came up with:
Daniel was involved INDIVIDUALLY on 21 goals
Henrik was involved INDIVIDUALLY on 23 goals
together they COMBINED for points on 53 goals
So ultimately, the were involved in one way or another in 97 UNIQUE goals or "point opportunities" (as opposed to just adding their two point totals which would have been 150pts from last year).
Kovalchuk, for example, was involved in 87 unique goals last year.
So essentially, don't both twins together equal the offensive output of 1 elite player? Would it not make sense then, and not be the end of the world, to trade them both for one player who is in the 85pt plus category?
Also, wouldn't have 1 person with that output be better than needing two, because that would allow for two other people on that line to have scoring potential, rather than just one more?
I wasn't sure what to make of all this, so I fired it off to Mirtle, and a few other bloggers too to see if they could help, but what what do you all think?
I don't see how it's any different than any two players on the same lines - obviously there's going to be a lot of overlap in their point totals. Heatley and Alfredsson have probably combined for a ton of goals with Ottawa too... I don't see how it lessens their value at all...
Interesting stats though....
Interesting stats though....
-
- MVP
- Posts: 232
- Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:37 am
- Location: SK
The difference with Heatley and Alfreddson would be that it is generally accepted that those guys would put up similar points with other linemates, whereas the Sedins need each other. There's only one way to find this out of course, by breaking them up, I wonder how that would impact these numbers. Also, how many of these points are second assists? And do we allocate the same value to the second assist as we would a goal or 1st assist? Sometimes, on a tic-tac-toe PP the second assist is vital, but sometimes it's an inconsequential pass earler in the play that really has no bearing on the goal itself. Things that make you go hmmm...
- MinnesotaCanuck
- MVP
- Posts: 80
- Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:21 am
- Location: MN Wild Country, USA
For the sake of comparison:
Kovalchuk ALONE = 65 goals
Kovalchuk + Todd White COMBINED = 22 goals
Todd White ALONE = 15 goals
TOTAL UNIQUE GOALS = 102
Also, keep in mind that Kovalchuk played with other centers during the year (Little, Holik, etc.). However, Kovalchuk also played with an elite player (Hossa) for at least a few shifts each game...and powerplay time with a capable Mark Recchi. Other than occassional duty with Naslund, the Sedins never played with any talented goal scorers.
COMBINED Salary of Sedins for 08/09 = $7.15M
COMBINED Salary of Kovalchuk/White for 08/09 = $9.85M
Obviously, this number is skewed because the Sedins are due for a raise next year. However, I think these numbers all suggest that having the Sedins is essentially a wash with having one elite player and a 2nd-line type player, dollar-for-dollar.
Kovalchuk ALONE = 65 goals
Kovalchuk + Todd White COMBINED = 22 goals
Todd White ALONE = 15 goals
TOTAL UNIQUE GOALS = 102
Also, keep in mind that Kovalchuk played with other centers during the year (Little, Holik, etc.). However, Kovalchuk also played with an elite player (Hossa) for at least a few shifts each game...and powerplay time with a capable Mark Recchi. Other than occassional duty with Naslund, the Sedins never played with any talented goal scorers.
COMBINED Salary of Sedins for 08/09 = $7.15M
COMBINED Salary of Kovalchuk/White for 08/09 = $9.85M
Obviously, this number is skewed because the Sedins are due for a raise next year. However, I think these numbers all suggest that having the Sedins is essentially a wash with having one elite player and a 2nd-line type player, dollar-for-dollar.
- Madcombinepilot
- MVP
- Posts: 4240
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:54 am
- Location: Saskatoon, Sk.
Hehehe...good to see you got it.Madcombinepilot wrote:whats the other word ?
Noticed that Stajan signed a 2 year deal at 3.5 per year.
Who cares, Toronto,right ?
Salary.
The other part of this "worth" issue.
Sedins were drafted in '99. Both the twins have scored more points than anyone else drafted in that year. Certainly more points than the other top 8 players selected (2 of them were a D man & a goalie)
And more than the noteable late bloomers including Comrie & Zetterberg.
Other noteworthy players in that draft year : R Malone, M Erat & R Vrbata.
A side note. The Nux had 4 of the top 8 players taken in that draft year this past year in their line-up for a short period. Besides the Sedins & Pyatt...who was the other player ?
-
- MVP
- Posts: 232
- Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:37 am
- Location: SK