Max Cap Hits

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donlever
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by donlever »

I think this to be a good query for discussion RG.

Hopefully I find the time to respond but I already went long winded in asnwer to an earlier post of yours today and energy dwindles....
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Chef Boi RD
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Chef Boi RD »

Ronning's Ghost wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:32 am
Mëds wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:18 am In the cap world do we need to see a shift where teams start to put much less priority on loyalty to star players and more loyalty to the overall picture that brings organizational success? If homegrown talent won't take a discount to stay and build a winner, then move them out, suffer the backlash of the fans, but reap the rewards of being in the playoffs with a chance to win every year. Stick to it and talented players who actually want to win will come to play for you. The moneypuck approach.
Chef Boi RD wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:33 am Eventually you are going to have to sign one of your top players to a retirement contract as they all come to that eventually around there late 20’s. You just can’t keep showing the door to your top players when they are on the verge of their retirement contract due to fear, paranoia, angst, blah blah blah. You’ll never win a championship with that approach. Now the Senators management is saying “we need veterans, not enough vets on the team. What you need is a very strong balance of your 2 to 3 to 4 over 30 year olds, a strong middle age and a strong youthful element to the team.
For me, this is one of the most interesting hockey management questions. I won't pretend to know the answer, but I'm glad to see it explicitly raised in this format here. It will be intriguing to see which model more closely describes the next few Cup winners, and which is closer to the approach the new Canucks management (/ownership) group takes.

On a perhaps related note, do any of you have strong opinions on what proportion of the cap should be allocated to various specific components of a team (e.g. forward group, defence group, starting goalie, #1 centreman, bottom-pairing defence, etc.), or is that always going to depend on the particulars of what talent a given team has available (and the trade market for that talent)?
The Math is never universal team to team player to player circumstance to circumstance which is why analytics is a load of horse shit obsessed upon by the sporting media grads of BCIT’s sports journalism program just trying to validate the levels of intellect of their chosen profession to impress their girlfriends fathers, a profession that is truly childish at the heart, noted once you peel away the all the layers of bullshit shit talk speak
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Blob Mckenzie
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Blob Mckenzie »

If analyticsin hockey is a load of horseshit why do all 32 NHL teams employ people in the analytics department?
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donlever
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by donlever »

While playing with numbers in either vein can be deemed analytically based, it strikes me what RG and Chef are discussing is pertinent to Capology whereas the analytics departments Blob refers to are perhaps more strategically or game day orientated.

Assigning base level expectations to teams/players for propensity in play et cetera....

So there could be validity in what Dude refers to with respect to a scaled cap system, diagnostically speaking, whereas perhaps deeming all numbers based research as folly goes to far....
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Ronning's Ghost »

Blob's comment on Pearon's value leads me to thing that perhaps I should clarify that my question assumes players performing at the league-average value of their contracts.

I think having everyone on your team out-performing his contract would probably be more valuable than an optimized resource allocation, but also harder to achieve.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Blob Mckenzie »

Impossible to achieve. What you don’t want is too many guys underperforming their contract.
IMHO:
OEL is paid 7.25 and is likely a 5.5 million dollar player or thereabouts. You can see a case for him deserving 6 million.
Myers paid 6 likely worth 5 at best
Poolman at 2.5 is overpaid by 1.6
Dickinson at 2.8 is overpaid by 1.9
Boeser at 5.75 is probably a million overpaid

Every team has overpaid players. The key is to get more guys outplaying their contracts.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Strangelove »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 12:30 pm Poolman at 2.5 is overpaid by 1.6
Dickinson at 2.8 is overpaid by 1.9
Boeser at 5.75 is probably a million overpaid
Yikes Blob!!

Poolman is only worth $900K?

He's a solid bottom-pairing guy who can fill in the top-4 (18 mins-per-game career average)

... he's worth $1.5M easy.

Dickinson is only worth $900K?

They loved him in Dallas at $1.5M and were set to give him a raise but for the Kraken expansion

... his first season in Van was a tough one, but I'd say he's worth $1.5M-$2M.

Boeser is only worth $4.75M?? :wow:

Good Grief, he's a career 30-goal, 30 assist man... are you mad??

Boeser is presently underpaid... he's worth close to $6.5M (with term).

Are you basing your valuations on just this past season?

Cuz that ain't the way to go bro...
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Cherry Picker »

Yesterday Rust signed for 5.1 million per, don’t think Boeser deserves more than Rust.
4.75 to 5 million seems like the right range to me. His QO is way too high.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Blob Mckenzie »

Strangelove wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 1:15 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 12:30 pm Poolman at 2.5 is overpaid by 1.6
Dickinson at 2.8 is overpaid by 1.9
Boeser at 5.75 is probably a million overpaid
Yikes Blob!!

Poolman is only worth $900K?

He's a solid bottom-pairing guy who can fill in the top-4 (18 mins-per-game career average)

... he's worth $1.5M easy.

Dickinson is only worth $900K?

They loved him in Dallas at $1.5M and were set to give him a raise but for the Kraken expansion

... his first season in Van was a tough one, but I'd say he's worth $1.5M-$2M.

Boeser is only worth $4.75M?? :wow:

Good Grief, he's a career 30-goal, 30 assist man... are you mad??

Boeser is presently underpaid... he's worth close to $6.5M (with term).

Are you basing your valuations on just this past season?

Cuz that ain't the way to go bro...
Who cares if they loved Dickinson in Dallas? He was outplayed by Chiasson, Lammiko and Highmore. You can replace his contribution with a 900 K player.

Poolman was outplayed by Schenn and Burroughs and Hunt for that matter. He can fill in on top 4 and look horrific doing it. May as well put Bowey in the top 4.

What year did Brock have a 30 goal season? I must have missed that.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by donlever »

...my guess is Doc refers to 30 and 30 on an 82 GP basis.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Strangelove »

Blob Mckenzie wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:19 pm What year did Brock have a 30 goal season? I must have missed that.
:roll:

We've had this conversation before, his career average per 82 games is ~ 30 goals, 30 assists.

As for Poolman/Dickinson, you don't base their valuations solely on one bad season.

You are severely underestimating what they'd get on the open market.

EDIT: "Who cares if they loved Dickinson in Dallas?" you say?

"Who cares if they hated him in Vancouver?" says I.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Strangelove »

donlever wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:30 pm ...my guess is Doc refers to 30 and 30 on an 82 GP basis.
He knows...

EDIT: (Blobby and I have talked in these term many times before)

EDIT:
Blob Mckenzie wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:08 am One guy has averaged close to 50 points per 82 over the last three years while the other is around 30.
For example...
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Strangelove »

Cherry Picker wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 1:50 pm Yesterday Rust signed for 5.1 million per, don’t think Boeser deserves more than Rust.
4.75 to 5 million seems like the right range to me. His QO is way too high.
Rust averaged less than half a point per game for most of his career.

Then, three years ago, they started playing him almost exclusively with Crosby/Malkin/Guentzel

... and not surprisingly his points increased dramatically.

He's been riding some huge coattails and that was no doubt taken into account in the negotiations.

Boeser meanwhile has averaged 30 goals, 30 assists per 82 games for his entire career.

Also, unlike 30-year-old Rust, Boeser's best years are ahead of him (prime years).

If Rust gets $5.1M, Boeser gets $6.5M in my opinion...
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Meds »

Strangelove wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:41 pm Also, unlike 30-year-old Rust, Boeser's best years are ahead of him (prime years).

If Rust gets $5.1M, Boeser gets $6.5M in my opinion...
Quite likely, however for Boeser to stay in Vancouver I think he will need to sign another short term deal to show the team that he isn't going to squander those years with inconsistent efforts.
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Re: Max Cap Hits

Post by Strangelove »

Mëds wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 5:46 pm
Strangelove wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:41 pm Also, unlike 30-year-old Rust, Boeser's best years are ahead of him (prime years).

If Rust gets $5.1M, Boeser gets $6.5M in my opinion...
Quite likely, however for Boeser to stay in Vancouver I think he will need to sign another short term deal to show the team that he isn't going to squander those years with inconsistent efforts.
You may be right Mëds.
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