2019/20 Pacific Division

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UWSaint
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

Post by UWSaint »

ESQ wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:12 pm
UWSaint wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:41 am [quote=ESQ post_id=374310 time=1582649460 As for the Knights, don't dismiss the impact Lehner might have. Fleury is not above average any more (and rarely was, though I like the guy), Lehner is. Lehner can steal games. It will be interesting to see the deployment.
I totally disagree. Fleury was the team MVP for the past two seasons, and the primary reason they were able to exceed expectations as an expansion team. To my surprise (because I also didn't think highly of him in his later penguins years), he's been top-5 in the league since joining Vegas. Even better if you count his last playoffs in Pitt.
Last years his save percentage was 23rd among goalies with 20 games. (21st if you go by 30 games, which would then include all starters, 1B starters, and guys who won the starting job during the season). This year he is 38th in save percentage among goalies who have appeared in a third or more of their teams' games.

Last year he was average. This year he has been poor. He was a rock star in Vegas' first season -- who also played well during the month or so Fleury missed that year. Given his age, that magical season is unlikely to come back.

While in Pitt, he was usually healthy and usually average.

Again, I love to watch him, think he is great fun and great for the game. But he is a weak spot, not a strength, on the 2019-20 Golden Knights.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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UWSaint wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:25 pm
Last years his save percentage was 23rd among goalies with 20 games. (21st if you go by 30 games, which would then include all starters, 1B starters, and guys who won the starting job during the season). This year he is 38th in save percentage among goalies who have appeared in a third or more of their teams' games.
Last year he was 2nd in the league in shutouts and 6th in wins. And that was behind a weaker Knights defence, which is further weakened this season.

If he was average with the Pens, he wouldn't have lasted 10 years as a starter. By comparison, Lehner has been a 1b starter twice in his ten year career. At the very least, Fleury has been a top-10 throughout his career - his longevity and consistency under 13 years puts him top-5.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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ESQ wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:19 pm
UWSaint wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:25 pm
Last years his save percentage was 23rd among goalies with 20 games. (21st if you go by 30 games, which would then include all starters, 1B starters, and guys who won the starting job during the season). This year he is 38th in save percentage among goalies who have appeared in a third or more of their teams' games.
Last year he was 2nd in the league in shutouts and 6th in wins. And that was behind a weaker Knights defence, which is further weakened this season.

If he was average with the Pens, he wouldn't have lasted 10 years as a starter. By comparison, Lehner has been a 1b starter twice in his ten year career. At the very least, Fleury has been a top-10 throughout his career - his longevity and consistency under 13 years puts him top-5.
Lots of shutouts and a middling save percentage means less quality starts.

Wins are a function of games, goals scored, and goals against. It's not a good stat to measure a goalies' contribution.

When I say average, I mean league starter average. It means there are only a dozen or so guys in the world who are playing better. And it isn't easy to find these guys who are better than that and hold on to them. And yes, if you are a league average goaltender for 10 years you will get starting gigs. Even make many many millions a year.

Lehner doesn't have the ling track record as Fluery, but he's been better the past two years, and really only looked poor in one of the past five seasons.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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UWSaint wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:57 pm
Lots of shutouts and a middling save percentage means less quality starts.
Could be, but you also said Fleury can't "steal games" like Lehner can. Stealing games implies an above-expected performance by the goalie, which is also reflected in the shutout stat. I have no other idea of how to quantify "ability to steal games".
Wins are a function of games, goals scored, and goals against. It's not a good stat to measure a goalies' contribution.
Probably, on a micro level. When looking at a 12 year starting goaltenders career, I think it's pretty good - you don't see any "average" goalies with over 450 wins (e.g., Chris Osgood-types), and at #5 on career wins all-time (and likely finishing #1 or #2), Fleury is a 1st ballot hall of fame goalie.
When I say average, I mean league starter average. It means there are only a dozen or so guys in the world who are playing better. And it isn't easy to find these guys who are better than that and hold on to them. And yes, if you are a league average goaltender for 10 years you will get starting gigs. Even make many many millions a year.
Lehner doesn't have the ling track record as Fluery, but he's been better the past two years, and really only looked poor in one of the past five seasons.
We've seen how a backup goalie's numbers can be juiced - i.e. Cory Schneider never facing playoff-bound teams. Or look at how Lehner's career save% came as a backup in Ottawa. Sample size is everything with goalies.

But if you're right, Lehner will take over the crease from Fleury. If that happens, IMO the Knights are in deep trouble.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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ESQ wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:25 pm
UWSaint wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:57 pm
Lots of shutouts and a middling save percentage means less quality starts.
Could be, but you also said Fleury can't "steal games" like Lehner can. Stealing games implies an above-expected performance by the goalie, which is also reflected in the shutout stat. I have no other idea of how to quantify "ability to steal games".
You got me there!

As for the rest, Schneider was a top 10 goalie his first 3 seasons with Jersey; after that there was a collapse that had nothing to do with being sheltered as he was learning the trade.

Fleury has avoided collapse, while having more nothing-special seasons than special seasons. Average-but-workhorse goaltending on a stacked team means better-than-average win totals. Pitt was almost always stacked with talent thanks to Crosby & Malkin.

Fleury's floor was steady (never putrid); nevertheless, it was the accumulation of decent-yet-unspectacular seasons that led the Pens to let him go in favor of Murray.

I give Fleury a ton of credit -- he has a great skill set, a good work ethic, and is a great team guy from all accounts. But if the guy had been part of bubble-or-worse caliber teams (in terms of skaters), he wouldn't have the gaudy win totals. Fleury is not Steve Carlton on the 1972 Phillies (27 wins on a team with 59; sub-2 ERA).
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Vegas is pulling away. I don’t think that is too much of a surprise. The moves to solidify their back end at the deadline look pretty damn good. I’d put them right behind the Blues and maybe equal to them. It will be interesting to see how St Louis looks when they get Tarasenko back.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Are they gonna leave Cody Glass in the minors?
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Chef Boi RD wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:36 am Are they gonna leave Cody Glass in the minors?
Not sure. He’s had some injuries this year and still improving. He’ll be fine.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Doyle Hargraves wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:39 am
Chef Boi RD wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:36 am Are they gonna leave Cody Glass in the minors?
Not sure. He’s had some injuries this year and still improving. He’ll be fine.
Not looking good just like Vilardi, Rasmussen, Robert Thomas and Tippett. Nick Suzuki the Jap should’ve gone higher
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Doyle Hargraves wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:22 am Vegas is pulling away. I don’t think that is too much of a surprise. The moves to solidify their back end at the deadline look pretty damn good. I’d put them right behind the Blues and maybe equal to them. It will be interesting to see how St Louis looks when they get Tarasenko back.
8 straight this time of year, (and counting), is impressive no matter how good the line-up is. Must be well coached..
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Vilardi has 3 points in his first 5 NHL games. Robert Thomas has 40 points in 61 games. On pace for 54 points. You are out to lunch as usual.
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Doyle Hargraves wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:45 am Vilardi has 3 points in his first 5 NHL games.
In LA they are calling him the next Jason Wheels Allison
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Chef Boi RD wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:00 am
Doyle Hargraves wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:45 am Vilardi has 3 points in his first 5 NHL games.
In LA they are calling him the next Jason Wheels Allison
I have no idea what they are calling him. I guess you have a few friends in the LA area ...
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

Post by Madcombinepilot »

According to sports club stat, if we go 9-8-0 in our last 17 we have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Considering pundits (and some posters) were expecting us to be a bottom 5 team this year, I'll take that on March 1st!
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Re: 2019/20 Pacific Division

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Madcombinepilot wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:55 am According to sports club stat, if we go 9-8-0 in our last 17 we have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Considering pundits (and some posters) were expecting us to be a bottom 5 team this year, I'll take that on March 1st!
So do I, but it does not mean we cannot be pissed at how poorly this team has played in the last 2 weeks.
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