How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

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How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by ORCA »

I think the NHL has been plagued for a really long time (owners and players) by contracts that are too big, too long for franchise talents. It's nobody's fault, really. The player wants security and value, and the owners want the same - to a degree. In a vacuum, as long as the performance is there (and the Championships, or multiple runs for it), owners are more or less paying top dollar for top talent.

At some point, however, the priority shifts from security to flexibility for both parties as well. Players are more likely to want new scenery if management can't compliment them enough (read: Edmonton and Connor McDavid), and management would like an expedited end - either by trade or simply allowing the players contract to end (read: Vancouver and Loui Erikkson). By adding one or two additional negotiating cycles to a player's career, the contract value is more accurately represented and it becomes less arduous to either wait out or offload a bad deal. In that sense, Matthews' deal has probably made a big impact on how future contracts for superstar talents are constructed moving forward.

From John Marsitz via theScore, "If the two sides had agreed on an eight-year deal -the chosen route for many of Matthews' peers, including Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, and a path the forward and his team discussed - he would have hit the open market at 29 and, at least theoretically, missed out on a boatload of money while under team control."

Now, I don't know if the following is true, but there is buzz that Matthews actually took less money (AAV) to take less term, probably in consideration of the leaf's Tavares 'window' as a contender, and making room for Mitch Marner and a handful of potentially elite supporting cast. This would be in stark contrast to traditional contract structure (less AAV over a longer term, more AAV for a shorter term).

I started to think about the Canucks and their two most critical players, obviously yet to be extended - Brock Boeser and Elias Petterson.

Here is a comparison of our top guns to the top duo for the leaves in Matthews and Marner:
comparisoNHLn.PNG
comparisoNHLn.PNG (20.71 KiB) Viewed 5467 times
I'm not trying to incite debate over who is better, even the point share ratios are nearly identical, though the combined numbers actually give a slight edge to our Canuck pair. (Thanks Dekey Pete)
I'm also aware Boeser is not a Center. Centers will generally garner a higher salary because of the importance of their position.

If the players follow Matthews' lead, over a 5 year deal I'd anticipate north of $8M AAV for Boeser (if he was a C, over 9M certainly), and when Petey's ELC is up, if he stays healthy and trends at level or improves (which he should, I would guess) then there's potential that he'd become the league's highest paid player. The upcoming ~4% cap increase will help both of them at the table, too.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Chef Boi RD »

Boeser - Nylander money. The fucking Nylander contract has raised the bar, thanks Dubas you dumbass

Pettersson - too early to tell, but if he continues to impress - “show me the money!”
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Strangelove »

ORCA wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:33 am Now, I don't know if the following is true, but there is buzz that Matthews actually took less money (AAV) to take less term, probably in consideration of the leaf's Tavares 'window' as a contender, and making room for Mitch Marner and a handful of potentially elite supporting cast. This would be in stark contrast to traditional contract structure (less AAV over a longer term, more AAV for a shorter term).
UFA years cost more than RFA years, that's always been a constant, it's why UFA signings are usually considered "over-payments".

Although, if you're paying say a 30-yr-old into his mid-to-late 30s, those latter years actually cost LESS.

(because most players' skill erodes significantly at that age)

My consensus of the top pundits had Leaves looking at roughly $11M/5 yrs, $12M/6 yrs, $13M/7 yrs, or $14M+/8 yrs... on Matthews.

(the amount he ended up with over 5 years raised some eyebrows)

It used to be that the "second contract" was the bang-for-buck contract, but things have definitely been trending differently for years.

(when it comes to top young talent that is)

But if those players are getting a bigger piece of the pie, that only means other players are getting less pie.

I think this trend will lead toward greater parity in the league... and toward GMs needing to be more careful with contract$.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Mickey107 »

It will be really intriguing to see how Brock's contract comes to fruition.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that a bridge of two years "could" take place.
However, if it turns out, as Dude points out, to be roughly 7, I believe I've seen enough of Brock that tells me
his effort and desire for greater achievement is more than adequate to garner a 7 for 7 arrangement.

With Mr Pettersson; Well, who the hell knows! If he survives the rest of this year and half next, we'll think about
something rather hefty.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by theman »

Really it is far too early to tell because both have shown to be a bit injury prone.

But for the sake of argument:

Boeser, I think, is trending to a 7x7 contract

Pettersson, still his first season, but I could see him going to a 10 mil a year contract if he keeps up his point per game pace and stays healthy.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by SKYO »

Yeah JB seems in no rush to talk contract with Boeser yet, seems like they'll work it out after the season is done, probably all part of the next crazy 6 months, scouting, signing college UFA, qualifying RFA's, draft, July 1st ufa, & then re-sign Boeser in the summer sometime, also gotta re-sign a shitload of depth RFA's like Granlund, Motte, Leivo, Goldy, Hutton, Demko and let Pouliot go to UFA.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Cousin Strawberry »

Maybe they were wise to hold off on boesers contract after all. Hes a damn good player already sure but last year everything he touched turned to gold.

With the injury and obviously prolonged recovery hes been far less dynamic...although still a good player (before you start hurling midgets at me)
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by ESQ »

I won't be surprised if Boeser goes for a 2-3 year extension.

I would be thrilled with $7 x 7, but if his freak injuries heal properly and he goes back to 50+ goal pace, he'll be earning a much bigger contact.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by SKYO »

ESQ wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:31 pm I won't be surprised if Boeser goes for a 2-3 year extension.

I would be thrilled with $7 x 7, but if his freak injuries heal properly and he goes back to 50+ goal pace, he'll be earning a much bigger contact.
Could also be 5 years, Matthews just recently and even Crosby, Malkin signed a 5 year deal before signing their big long term deals.
Can the Canucks just win a Cup within the next 5 years.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by BigTuna »

The cap is skyrocketing. Relax and sign your stars to big contracts and build around them. And STOP signing overpaid crap like Jay Beagle, That's what kills your cap.
Cheap-out on your bottom 6 forwards. Cheap does not mean bad.

MGM deal is signed and Seattle is coming. Cap will be 100 million within 4-5 seasons.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Cousin Strawberry »

Tuner using the toronto 75 year rebuild as a model for all teams to follow...gold jerry

The last time torontoilet won anything was 2 years before the Apollo moon landing :lol:

Are there any laffs fans still alive who remember them winning a playoff round?
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by BigTuna »

Uncle dans leg wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:20 am Tuner using the toronto 75 year rebuild as a model for all teams to follow...gold jerry

The last time torontoilet won anything was 2 years before the Apollo moon landing :lol:

Are there any laffs fans still alive who remember them winning a playoff round?
It's actually the Chicago Blackhawks model which resulted in multiple cups.

It ain't rocket science. Stop overpaying for supporting guys.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Cousin Strawberry »

Says the fan of a team paying how many multi million dollar cap hit contracts for assets not in the nhl

Nathan Horton! LOL!

Or how about donating millions each year to pittsburg to win cups with kessel!

Ya lets all follow the laffs
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by BigTuna »

Uncle dans leg wrote: Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:27 am Says the fan of a team paying how many multi million dollar cap hit contracts for assets not in the nhl

The only one is Horton., and he actually doesn't have to be on the cap. He is LTIR eligible.

Toronto let Bozak, Komorov, and JVR go, didn't they? They signed a 1st line elite centre instead for less than JVR and Bozak cost.

Toronto has a Vezina contender and a 22 year-old 1st line winger to show for Kessel FYI. They also wouldn't have gotten Matthews if they don't make that trade.

So you are saying pay a lot for your bottom 6? Interesting...
Last edited by BigTuna on Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How Auston Matthews' contract might effect Boeser and Petterson

Post by Cousin Strawberry »

Heres a suggestion. Hold back all the crowing until they can win at least one playoff round. It'll go a long way for your own sanity

Thats not such an accomplishment honestly...unless you're rocking the cornflake of despair
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