UWSaint wrote: ↑Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:31 am
Weighing in on the draft and the Miller trade....
(1) It really shows you what a steal it was to get Pearson for Gudbrandson.... Both have similar offensive production upsides, but Miller can be used in all situations and at any position. Miller has the wheels; Pearson is more opportunistic.
(2) It sure would have been nice to get the TML first for buying out Marleau. That would remove the sting of giving up a first. It is a sting because we've seen some pretty good drafting lately (Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Demko). But imagine the drafts before that? Bag-of-pucks firsts (Gaunce, Jensen, Shinkaurk).
(3) JB isn't getting to the 2021 draft without making the playoffs one of the next two seasons. At some point you have to declare that you have a core moving forward and look to supplement it. I am not certain that it is now, but I am certain that from JB's perspective it needs to be. Therefore, the pick was going to be traded this offseason, and the BPA available for it after kicking tires was Miller.
If it fails, if this core doesn't work, the Canucks will have a lot of pieces that the next GM can trade for value. That wasn't really the case once MG got canned.
(4) I continue to think that championships are won down the middle and with defense. If a first could have been used as a package to get someone who could be a #1 D, I have problems with the Miller trade from an opportunity cost perspective. (I'm sure it could have been used as a package to get Subban, I am not sure he is the man, but probably was the best available for trade). But my guess is that the tires were all kicked on potential targets *and the team decided that they'd rather make a move in free agency for a defenseman instead of a forward.* Myers or Gardiner are the best available, but neither is the #1 the Canucks need, and none are available. Both would improve this team, but there are a few players lower on the radars that might also be an improvement over the current group in terms of a defensive defensemen. Patrik Nemeth comes to mind as a third pairing/penalty killer that should be available for less than it will cost to re-sign Hutton. And we ought to ask whether Hutton is more valuable as someone to trade than as a 3rd pairing defensemen.
(5) Heavy was the word of the year. The St. Louis Blues won with a heavy team. I am always suspicious of trying to emulate cup winners. The key is not to do what they do, but to do what they can't beat. Is Miller a move towards the Blues direction?
(6) Drafting the Russian... If draft and develop is the model, the Canucks have only half of this equation solved for the moment. European leagues and the NCAA seem to do a better job at development for the Canucks than Utica/Major Junior. So let them. Is this a coincidence: Russia, NCAA, SEL, SM Liiga, NCAA? The only Canadian-born Major Junior first rounders in the JB era are Virtanen and McCann, both of who were rushed to the NHL (and both of whom will likely be serviceable-but-nothing-special NHLers). The only other major junior player is Juolevi, who they decided would be better off in Finland for a year than playing in Utica. And the verdict is still out on that one (objectively, it should be still out on Hughes, but the case went in well....).
(7) After the draft: players than can return value in a trade: Woo, Tanev, Hutton, Stecher, Virtanen, Markstrom, Demko, DiPietro, Baertschi, Roussel (at deadline), Gaudette, Sutter (at deadline, if he is healthy and playing decently). If I am another team's GM, I would look to add Goldobin for cheap -- for those who have written off Goldy, that's value. For those of us (me only?) who think he think its a better bet to give him one last season instead of grabbing a unlikely-to-reward 3rd, I'd give him this year. But Goldobin is definitely value as a sweetener in another acquisition.
Not proposing any one of these players gets traded in particular, but this is what JB is working with for the next move. On top of that, he will be looking to move Eriksson and Spooner without having to out up a dowry or take a bad contract.