2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

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DonCherry4PM
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2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by DonCherry4PM »

I've tried to keep from making any snap-judgements early on in the season but feel a quarter is enough of a sample size to give an initial analysis and commentary. Feel free to criticize, disagree, comment, suggest, augment and/or give your opinion on what the first quarter of the season analysis should be in your opinion or what you feel are the current strengths or weaknesses of the team.

Team:

General Outlook - Generally the team has performed about as successfully as was expected by most of the media pundits. Some on the site expected more and some expected less but it's been a bit dismal particularly with what some think is a lack of organizational direction. What once was called a “retool” on the fly has now been referred to as a “rebuild” which doesn't really come as a surprise to most of us. The greater question that remains is whether the organization will now try to get as much from its aging/veteran assets as possible in order to assist with the rebuild or whether it will continue to look to compete and hang onto all the assets that it feels can assist in the short term success of the team.

Quick and Dirty - Overall effort seems to be there almost every game but skill (particularly in the scoring department) has so far been somewhat lacking. Generally speaking, goaltending has been solid, defense has been solid (defensively but not offensively) and forwards have been the weaker of the links. Some prospects are proving themselves while others are disproving.

Forwards (age/wage in millions)*:

*I've only rated/analyzed players with 10 or more games played. Letter grades below are based on expectation, value and skill and can be argued to be just a little subjective. I reserve the right to modify grades if so moved by valid arguments of other Corner members.

Henrik (36/$7) – The great leader seems to be slowing. Can't pin the state of the organization on him but speed seems to be turning into more of an issue (particularly when the twins aren't paired with a speedy forechecker) and points don't seem to be coming as easily as they used to. Can't say anything negative on the leadership side as he is the epitome of professional, but losing a step or two in this league is definitely hurting a team that has depended on him to be (and currently needs) a point a game player (vs. a little more than half of that). Projected 47 points for the season. B-

Daniel (36/$7) - As with most things with the twins, as goes one so goes the other. You can pretty much repeat the above verbatim to get the rundown on Daniel. One more than Henrik point for a total of 13. As of the Dallas game second to Bo in points on the team. Projected 50 points for the season. B-

Loui (31/$6)– One of the most disappointing players so far this season. On pace for 16 goals (if we don't include the one he scored on his own net). As many have noted, he probably needs some time to adapt to new systems, style and line-mates but so far we are getting about half of a 6 million dollar man. Here's to hoping he can lift his game in the second quarter and start being the go to guy for some scoring touch. C

Hansen (30/$2.5) – IR – Even though he's injured still one of the pleasant surprises this year. Although more and more with Hansen it seems like less of a surprise and more of an expectation. Great forecheck, good hands, awesome speed, full hustle every game, great contract value – pretty much the only thing that can be asked more of the guy is that he stay uninjured. A-

Bo (21/$.89) – Probably the most pleasant surprise of the year. We can all remember at the start of the season that talk about him being used as a third or fourth line center because the pressure was too much for the young guy to take and he needed more sheltered minutes than last year. In response to that, he has bulled through and currently sits as the team's points leader. This guy oozes maturity and leadership and has size and speed and not a bad scoring touch to boot. A bright spot in a bit of a gloomy start to the season. A+

Baertschi (24/$1.85) – A little slow to start off the year but seems to be picking up his game alongside Bo and Burrows. He's now on pace (with those Arizona points) for a 36 point season which would be a career high but still not the level we need from a second line winger. At 24 he's still got a few years to reach potential, but we need to see more of that improvement this season. B

Burrows (35/$4.5) – Another player who started off slow but seems to be gaining momentum is Alex. If the last few games are any indication, Burrows has found a place for himself this season (and possibly redefined himself, as he has so many times) on the Baer-Bo-Burr line. He's on pace for 32 points on the season which isn't great but sure beats last season's 22. Nice to see a fan favourite pushing himself back into relevance. C+

Granlund (23/$.9) – Has been a bit up and down in the first quarter but seemed to have a fair amount of chemistry with Sutter at the beginning of the season but his play without Sutter at his side seems to be a bit less solid – even so, he has a high hockey IQ and solid creative talent. He's on pace for 20 goals and I doubt anybody will be complaining about his productivity if he hits that. B+

Sutter (27/$4.38) – This “foundational” piece of the team started off on fire then slowed for a bit but has scored in 3 of the last 5 games which pace would be pretty foundational if projected out to 82 games. Obviously some of this has to do with playing on wing for the twins while Hansen remains on IR. Wishful thinking aside, he's on pace for 43 points and 20 goals which may not be as foundational as many had hoped but is still pretty solid. Is it worth 4.3 Million? B+

Gaunce (22/$.86) – He has been solid in his fourth line role but from his play so far it appears that his potential might be capped out here, which isn't a bad thing (and may not even be the case) as every team needs some solid fourth line players. Doesn't seem to have a lot of creativity or speed but appears a consistent grinder. Need more time to really see if he has more potential but for now. C+

Virtannen (20/$.89) – If there is a greater disappointment than Eriksson this season, it is definitely Jake. Not coming to camp ready (allegedly) and complaining about lines (along with other alleged attitude deficiencies) aren't really the best way to endear yourself to the coach. It could be argued that Jake was already Willie's scapegoat before this season (and I would tend to think that being jerked up and down and in and out of the lineup probably isn't the best way to develop a kid) but despite that, his behaviour hasn't been what most would hope for from an up and coming (hopefully) key player on the team – particularly when contrasted with Bo's behaviour. Hoping Jake stays down in Utica until his play forces them to call him back up – which doesn't look to be happening any time soon. F

Skille (29/$.7) – In the words of Todd Bertuzzi “It is what it is” or more appropriately “he is what he is”. Skille has performed about as expected from a journeyman fourth line player. Hasn't overly impressed but I don't think anyone was expecting that. C

Dorsett (29/$2.65) – IR - For the games he has played, he has been the expected spark plug. That said one would like to see a little more pushback from him when liberties are taken with other Canuck players. This goes beyond him though and applies to the entirety of the team – there needs to be more sticking up for one another – anyone see Crosby going after McDonagh for that ugly hit? – can't say I am usually a Crosby fan but that behaviour was a perfect example of what needs to be done. C

Defense (age/wage in millions)*:

Edler (30/$5) – The most popular scapegoat for many of us, he still makes some of those plays that make you shake your head but he seems to be well-paired with Stecher. That said, his projected points total of 12 would be the worst of his entire NHL career (other than his first year when he only played 22 games). Definitely needs to pick up his game and get some more points for his year to not be a complete disaster. C-

Sbisa (26/$3.6) – As much as I have liked to rant on Sbisa, he really hasn't been the problem this season and has been quietly putting together some pretty decent games with significantly fewer than expected of those patented pizza passes. It pains me to give it but... B

Gudbranson (24/$3.5) – Has generally shown gritty and physical play that was expected. At 24 still has some upward potential and still could put up some points. What started out looking like an amazing pairing of him and Hutton didn't turn out to be quite the powerhouse the team was hoping. That isn't to say Gudbranson hasn't been good, he just hasn't been great. B

Larsen (26/$1.025) – IR – Can't really expect too much from a guy for a million a year but my quick assessment is just that I think Stecher brings quite a bit more of what Larsen does (I realize points don't prove that assessment but it is more based on the eye test) and has more upward potential. C+

Tryamkin (22/$.925) – Wow! In the good sense. This guy looks like the real deal. Plays a mean game and is very responsible positionally. Plus he's massive, tough, mobile for his size and has a good hockey IQ. We have been absent this for a very long time or has it been forever? If he is able to build off this first quarter and keep improving, this would be pretty significant find by Benning for the organization. A

Stecher (22/$.925) – Small but quick and has amazing creativity which I think everyone will agree has been sorely lacking on the lackluster powerplay. With his hockey sense and mobility, he could turn into that power-play quarter back we've been missing. Still a long ways to go but has shown a lot of promise so far. B+

Hutton (23/$.896) – Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Hutton has had a pretty tough time of it so far this year as it appears the sophomore jinx has him strongly in its grasp. That said, he seems to have the attitude and persistence to be able to push through this adversity and come out better for it on the other side. Here's to hoping the other side comes sooner rather than later. Glad to see he signed an extension. B-

Tanev (27/$4.45) – IR - Only seven games so no analysis.

Goaltending (age/wage in millions)*:

Miller (36/$6) – One of the areas we really haven't had to worry about at all. Miller has been everything he has been expected to be. A

Markstrom (26/$1.555) – As noted above, tending has been one of that areas about which we have not had to worry. Markstrom seems to get caught out of position at times and definitely still has some development to do but overall is rounding into the tender the team needs to slowly take more of the load from Miller. A-

Management/Coaching:

Desjardins – Definitely can't blame the coach for the state of the team right now and as noted above the team does seem to be working hard almost every night (for which some credit should go to the coach) but I do have a few complaints – 1) seems to have a habit of getting out-coached as doesn't appear to have high aptitude for changing strategy on the fly; 2) this probably can be said of any coach, but he definitely has his favourites and sometimes it seems like there is little rhyme or reason to who is sitting on the pine and who is getting minutes; 3) overtime and shootout choices; 4) treatment of some of the developing youth (e.g. most would agree Jake should have been sent down a while ago); 5) Powerplay is not good (I realize this falls more on the coaching staff than just Desjardins but I don't really want to evaluate each assistant coach as well). C-

Benning – “Genius” or “Failure”? I think both descriptives are equally unwarranted at this point in time. Some of Benning's signings, picks and trades I like. Some I don't. Tryamkin looks to be a potential landslide win of a pick. Virtannen isn't currently looking so hot. I just hope that with the current state of the team Benning has the latitude and the long term forsight to hold onto and obtain as many picks as possible to restock the shelves (imagine what few more Tryamkin like picks could do for the team). I'm not going to give a grade to Benning until we see what he does during the rest of the season (at least up until trade deadline).
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Hockey Widow »

The problem we have moving forward is the absence of a generational pick this upcoming draft. Heck, there may not even be anyone NHL ready.

We are seeing, with the exception of OJ, the best of what our future D looks like.

In net Demko is at least another full year away from getting a sniff and Boeser is the best hope up front. There really isn't anyone other than Boeser, maybe Virtanen, to inject into the lineup next year.

With the draft not being as strong this year any players could be 2-4 years out from impacting the team. So while 2-3 years from now may hold promise, the next couple of years will be painful.

I think, future wise, we will be solid in net. I think our D is shaping up to be solid also. Drafting a top six centre is paramount, along with a skilled top six winger.

If Benning can't wait 2-3 more years I fear him trading the rest of our vets for prospects on a hope and a prayer. The key is paitience. Will he have the trust and patience of ownership?
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Iceman2014 »

HW, I agree there needs to be some patience but Benning has to hit this from multiple angles. The draft alone will not make the Canucks an actual contender. There isn't enough young talent there that can develop into the next core. Like you said, a high end (#1) centre and top 6 winger are needed.

Benning needs to capitalize on his assets. Letting Hamhuis go for nothing was a blunder. Not dealing Vrbata after his 30 goal season was another mistake. Older assets that would have brought back some solid talent/picks.

So, yes, I hope Benning moves Miller, Burr and Hansen at this trade deadline. Hansen's value is growing and it would also allow Benning to protect all of his young forwards at expansion draft.

I'd like to see what Benning is offered for Tanev. If it's the moon then he has to act. Tanev is a keeper but Canucks are don't have enough young high end talent in the system so he may be able to land us a true #1 centre that is in some team's system. I don't know how else Benning gets that player in the near future.

I think the analysis is decent here but I don't agree with all grades...but meh...it's a fun post.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Mickey107 »

Hockey Widow wrote:The problem we have moving forward is the absence of a generational pick this upcoming draft. Heck, there may not even be anyone NHL ready.

We are seeing, with the exception of OJ, the best of what our future D looks like.

In net Demko is at least another full year away from getting a sniff and Boeser is the best hope up front. There really isn't anyone other than Boeser, maybe Virtanen, to inject into the lineup next year.

With the draft not being as strong this year any players could be 2-4 years out from impacting the team. So while 2-3 years from now may hold promise, the next couple of years will be painful.

I think, future wise, we will be solid in net. I think our D is shaping up to be solid also. Drafting a top six centre is paramount, along with a skilled top six winger.

If Benning can't wait 2-3 more years I fear him trading the rest of our vets for prospects on a hope and a prayer. The key is paitience. Will he have the trust and patience of ownership?
Really good post, HW. Patience is hard for everybody but I don't see that too much moving forward is going to happen this season. It's also complicated more because of expansion and IMO, it's going to be well into next season for things to settle down. GMs nervous right now, trying to figure it all out which will probably translate into not as much trading.
I can see the Canucks having a much better opportunity in really making some noise starting in or around the Trade Deadline of 2017/2018.
Expansion of course dilutes the talent pool at the NHL and AHL level so I'm glad we have a GM that does tend to look outside the more traditional areas.
If there is a worsening in the Russian economy, there may be more talent, even young talent, headed to North America, we will see.
What is going to be very critical for our organization is what the Sedins say after this season or at least by next training camp as to their plans. I hope they do because if they were to wait right up to their UFA time, Ouch.
Sure, lots of money but the temptation to use it on older talent is where we don't want to go.

As for our first quarter; We have been all over the place. I do know that Horvat is excelling in pretty much all areas and seems to be a guy that wont be injury prone. ( has good eyes).
If JB is serious about signing him long term, I think that will take around 5.8 to 6.0 mill per year, don't laugh, his agent would say that's a discount.
I don't mind admitting when I'm wrong so Burrows is impressing me as a leader.
Don't think Utica can ever do anything for Stecher now. What a learning experience for him!
Tryamkin is a keeper, gets better every week.
Sbisa better then I would have thought.
Both our goalies are capable and both are great team guys. Wouldn't bother me at all to keep Miller another year.
Too soon for me to day much else except that coaching to me is still a question mark and something tells me the right guy, moving forward, is not within the organization yet.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Island Nucklehead »

DonCherry4PM wrote:I've tried to keep from making any snap-judgements early on in the season but feel a quarter is enough of a sample size to give an initial analysis and commentary. Feel free to criticize, disagree, comment, suggest, augment and/or give your opinion on what the first quarter of the season analysis should be in your opinion or what you feel are the current strengths or weaknesses of the team.

Team:

General Outlook - Generally the team has performed about as successfully as was expected by most of the media pundits. Some on the site expected more and some expected less but it's been a bit dismal particularly with what some think is a lack of organizational direction. What once was called a “retool” on the fly has now been referred to as a “rebuild” which doesn't really come as a surprise to most of us. The greater question that remains is whether the organization will now try to get as much from its aging/veteran assets as possible in order to assist with the rebuild or whether it will continue to look to compete and hang onto all the assets that it feels can assist in the short term success of the team.

Quick and Dirty - Overall effort seems to be there almost every game but skill (particularly in the scoring department) has so far been somewhat lacking. Generally speaking, goaltending has been solid, defense has been solid (defensively but not offensively) and forwards have been the weaker of the links. Some prospects are proving themselves while others are disproving.
Nice post DC4PM. The Canucks are what we thought they were. They aren't talented enough to win often enough. I think most people knew we'd have to be the healthiest, luckiest team in the league to even have a wiff of the playoffs. We were that team for 4 games. It's a terrible time for the franchise, right now. Canucks and Utica both bottom-5 of their respective leagues, and the prospect pool isn't nearly good enough.

Always thought the Canucks would use that "retool while remaining competitive" talking point until nobody bought the "remaining competitive" bit. I think we're there now, and hopefully Benning and Linden can make it clear to the owners that trading multiple assets for complementary pieces like Sutter and Gudbranson just isn't enough to overcome the aging Sedins and lack of youth in the system. Those are the kind of trades you make when you're looking to add some veteran presence to your Arizona's or Edmonton's.

Bright side, Bo Horvat is the real deal and should be a nice 2C to stack pieces around. He'll be a good influence and take some of that defensive load from our future 1C (once he is drafted in the next 2-3 years).
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by bckev »

Patience is definitely the order of the day. The Canucks are better than their record shows. I am impressed that we have done as well as we have with the injuries we have. There is better depth than I thought. I still think we will make the playoffs and once there we may surprise. My rationale for this is our team play is what will get us there and team play is vital for a long playoff run (combined with exceptional goaltending). Immediate improvement through the draft rarely happens, it always takes longer than everyone wants to wait. Look at the oilers every first rounder was supposed to make them a contender but only McDavid has had that kind of impact. The reality of the draft is finding and developing players and that takes time. I give Benning full credit for his drafting and development plan. I also give him credit for filling in areas with players that are further along in development but still in development process. That in part explains our struggles. Guys like Baertchi will produce, Horvat is coming on. Burrows is showing them the way which is why it is important to have those players, they are part of the developmental process. I don't understand the hate for Edler and the Sedins. We are fortunate to have them. Are the Sedins as good as they were, no, are the part of the process of developing the new core, yes. The ups and downs we are going through is part of the pain of developing a strong team. We don't have to look back very far to see that we did this once before and almost got the holy grail. Think about the development of Naslund, Sedins and Bertuzzi. And then look at the role of Morrison, Linden and Burrows in the development of the whole team.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by ESQ »

We're definitely seeing the Changing of the Guard on defence.

It seemed like for a decade their the Canucks would lose one top-4D every other year - Jovo, Ohlund, Mitchell, Ehrhoff, Salo, Hamhuis - but it was otherwise an extremely static lineup.

Tanev is really the only defenseman to make the leap from prospect to the bigs in the past decade.

But this year, seeing Stecher, Tryamkin, Hutton all playing big roles is pretty unprecedented and gives hope for the future.

Of course, with that many rookies/ELCs on the roster, one would expect the Canucks to be in a position to devote more cap space to scoring....

Overall, we've seen them be incredibly lucky and go 4-0, and we've seen them incredibly unlucky and go 0-8-1. I do believe the team is somewhere in the middle. 5-3-1 in their past 9 games, and that seems about right. Fortunately they have a much mellower schedule in December. But they'll need an extended streak or two to get back in the playoff picture, in spite of the continued feebleness of the Pacific Division.

Nonetheless, at this point I'd say they're more likely to make the playoffs than get the 1st overall pick.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Chef Boi RD »

I just want the Canucks to make the playoffs just so to witness a Blobbee Mac and Nucklefarm colossal melt down
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Blob Mckenzie »

Teams generally don't make the playoffs with 10 or 12 regulation wins.Thats the pace the Canucks are on

The 6 out of 7 wins in Bettman time is unsustainable. Wait until the real teams actually start to play.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Island Nucklehead »

RoyalDude wrote:I just want the Canucks to make the playoffs just so to witness a Blobbee Mac and Nucklefarm colossal melt down
Try to think about 2-3 years from now.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by SKYO »

DonCherry4PM wrote:I've tried to keep from making any snap-judgements early on in the season but feel a quarter is enough of a sample size to give an initial analysis and commentary.

Team:

General Outlook - The greater question that remains is whether the organization will now try to get as much from its aging/veteran assets as possible in order to assist with the rebuild or whether it will continue to look to compete and hang onto all the assets that it feels can assist in the short term success of the team.

Quick and Dirty - Overall effort seems to be there almost every game but skill (particularly in the scoring department) has so far been somewhat lacking. Generally speaking, goaltending has been solid, defense has been solid (defensively but not offensively) and forwards have been the weaker of the links. Some prospects are proving themselves while others are disproving.
awesome post DC.

I think the next month or so will determine if they sell off Burrows, Hansen and maybe Miller.

Yup the team's scoring was absolutely atrocious and MIA but as you said they have been playing hard kept in a lot of games.

That Blackhawks game really was a turning point for the team, confidence booster.

What's promising if you're an optimist is the scoring has improved quite a bit compared to the beginning of the season, whether that's sustainable or not remains to be seen.

repost
Canucks first 11 games: 16 goals (1.45/game)

Last 9 games: 28 goals (3.11/game)
Can the Canucks just win a Cup within the next 5 years.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Todd Bersnoozi »

Good grading on the report cart. The only one I would majorly disagree with is Bearcheese, 2Gs so far is just not good enuff for a guy who played most of the year in an offensive role. I'd grade him the same as Eriksson, a C.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by 5thhorseman »

Todd Bersnoozi wrote:Good grading on the report cart. The only one I would majorly disagree with is Bearcheese, 2Gs so far is just not good enuff for a guy who played most of the year in an offensive role. I'd grade him the same as Eriksson, a C.
And just like that Baertschi turns it on.

I'm actually quite happy with Baertschi this year. I recall 12 months ago he was consistently getting knocked over or just falling down on his own. He went to the boards but rarely came up with the puck. He improved a lot toward the end of the last season and has carried that play into this season. He's playing the right way ... the goals will come.
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Mickey107 »

5thhorseman wrote:
Todd Bersnoozi wrote:Good grading on the report cart. The only one I would majorly disagree with is Bearcheese, 2Gs so far is just not good enuff for a guy who played most of the year in an offensive role. I'd grade him the same as Eriksson, a C.
And just like that Baertschi turns it on.

I'm actually quite happy with Baertschi this year. I recall 12 months ago he was consistently getting knocked over or just falling down on his own. He went to the boards but rarely came up with the puck. He improved a lot toward the end of the last season and has carried that play into this season. He's playing the right way ... the goals will come.
Something else to think about: Although different styles for sure, but one could say that Baertschi maybe had some "entitlement" problems in the past but seems to have left them there!
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Re: 2016-2017 Season – First Quarter Analysis - 21 Games

Post by Per »

I'm curious to what the deal is with Anton Rödin. He was one of the better players in the pre-season, leading the team in points. Then they put him on IR as the season started, and we haven't heard of him since.
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