Ronning's Ghost wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:38 am
Honest to the Hockey Gawds, my plan was to shut up about this and let you just enjoy a nice payoff run, but some of you had to blow your genius horn, and at least this one last time, I will answer.
Solid post.
With respect to that poll, I will say my opinion on "genius" speed of a rebuild has shifted.
After watching every full-tank rebuild since Tampa with Stamkos (12 years ago!) fail to surpass the Canucks' postseason performance, my opinion has changed.
Benning accomplished in 5 years what Colorado has in ten, all with zero draft lotto luck.
No team that has picked first overall since 2008 has made it past the second round. I think that's a large enough body of evidence to suggest causation. If Colorado is the best of the "full-tank" franchises, they have had 4 top-4 picks in 11 years, compared to 0 for Benning.
Meanwhile, tankers like the Leaves, Oilers, and Sabres don't look very close to taking that Next Step. The Avs should be close but just haven't - and are sitting on a pile of draft picks and cap space.
Ronning's Ghost wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:38 am
What was the biggest advantage Vegas had over the Canucks? Arguably, depth. You know what would have improved the Canucks' depth? Sound asset management. Good cap management to bring in better free agents wouldn't have hurt, either. What were Benning's critics concerned about early?
Fair opinion, however I would say what got the Canucks past the Wild and the Blues? Their depth.
Their current depth hasn't put them in the Elite/favorite category that Vegas is in, but Vegas isn't wrapping up a rebuild and has the most advantageous expansion draft of all time.
Also, I will respectfully disagree if you are suggesting a couple 2nd and 3rd round picks from earlier in the rebuild would have had any impact in this series through "improved depth".
Of course there will be no way to know for sure, other than letting the results speak for themselves.
Ya know, me too. But while you see a team build systematically through the draft, I see one that traded potential for future success for a better season now. Yes, it was a fast rebuild, but it was goosed by trading a draft pick -- I would argue prematurely -- for a player now. By now there is no question that Miller made the 2020 Canucks better than they otherwise would have been, and of course his contribution was greater than any player not yet drafted could have been. Will he still be an important contributor by the time the new core is at its peak? That remains an open question.
Let's just say you're right, and this year's 1rp is a future star. If he started playing next year, and was a PPG player like Miller, he'd probably hit most of his performance bonuses and have a cap hit around $2.5-3 mil.
That's only $2.25 mil less than Miller.
And Miller's on this amazing contract until he's 29. Because Miller is ONLY 26 - that's something that constantly shocks me, but he is extremely young still and probably in his prime, at an excellent value.
If this hypothetical 2020 1rp out performed Miller over the next three years, he would command $8 mil+ after his ELC. Could he fit under the cap?
I think the odds of a 2020 1rp outperforming Miller over the ELC years are minimal, not mentioning the off-ice contributions you get from Miller vs an 18 year old.
By the way, Miller can be flipped for a high 1rp at any time in the next 3 years, he'd certainly get more than a 20th oa and a 3rd.
Right now, though, he remains tied with Milford, Neale, Gillis, and the rest at zero.
He's also tied with Sakic, the Oilers' five GMs during their rebuild, and well ahead of the Sabres, Senators, and the Shanaplan.