If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would ya?

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If trading Horvat + 6th pick was the only way to acquire the 2014 1st pick, would ya do it?

Poll ended at Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:43 am

YES! YES! YES!
9
18%
NO means NO.
37
76%
Other (Please explain in post)
3
6%
 
Total votes: 49

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The Brown Knight
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I believe in Jim Benning

Post by The Brown Knight »

I believe in Jim Benning

One of the reasons why the Canucks and Trevor Linden hired Jim Benning, was due to his eye for talent. Benning's track record in Boston speaks for itself.

Benning *clearly* has a hard-on for Sam Reinhart.

Perhaps it's possible that Benning sees something in the kid?
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Aaronp18
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Aaronp18 »

The Brown Knight wrote: Guys like Anze Kopitar, David Kreijki, Ryan Getzlaf, etc.
Which of these guys were drafted 1st overall?

Better yet, were any acquired by giving up two top ten picks?

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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Betamax »

Aaronp18 wrote:
Betamax wrote: Well, Aaron, you missed the point
No, I get what you're spewing.

So every credible source has him as a top 3/4 pick. Doesn't sound like a consensus first line centre to me! Therefore, IMO, he isn't worth two top 10 picks.
Poor logic. He's rated as one of the top 2 centres available in this draft. Doesn't mean that he will not be a 1st liner. Even if he goes 3rd overall, that doesn't imply that he's not projected to have a good chance at being a 1st liner when he reaches his prime. I mean, last year Drouin went 3rd overall and is projected as a 1st line winger and rated the no. 1 prospect in the world not in the NHL by THN in their most recent Future Watch Issue.
And again, one first line centre doesn't win you a cup. You've proven yourself that it takes depth and talent. By dropping two potential top 6 players for one we lose some depth up front. Something that we've been suffering with for the past few years!

We deal from strength and offer one of our second tier defenseman (of which we have 4-5 of) and the 6th, maybe sweeten the pot with other role players or lesser picks. If it takes more than that the deal isn't worth it IMO.
The list was provided. Not too many teams (I originally counted two in the past 13 years according to the list provided by Mondi) have won a Cup without a bonifide Centre playing at a Franchise 1st line level. You could argue that make a very good argument that Krejci in 2011 stepped his game up to a No. 1 C level in the 2011 Playoffs to the chagrin of Canucks' supporters. Ergo, I count only one team, i.e. the NJD in 2003 and they played a defensive minded system that heavily relied on their goaltending and back end. :mex:

For Reference:
2014 - Kopitar / Carter - Doughty
2013: Toews / Kane - Keith
2012: Kopitar/Brown - Doughty
2011: Krejci / Bugeron - Chara
2010: Toews / Kane - Keith
2009: Crosby / Malkin - Gonchar
2008: Datsyuk / Zetterberg - Lidstrom
2007: Getzlaf / Perry - Pronger / Niedermayer
2006: Staal / Brind'Amour - oops
2004: Lecavelier / Richard - Boyle
2003: Madden / Nieuwendky / Gomez - Niedermayer
2002: Yzerman / Fedorov - Lidstrom
2001: Sakic / Forsberg - Borque / Blake

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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Betamax »

Aaronp18 wrote:
The Brown Knight wrote: Guys like Anze Kopitar, David Kreijki, Ryan Getzlaf, etc.
Which of these guys were drafted 1st overall?

Better yet, were any acquired by giving up two top ten picks?
What do you think the chances in terms of percentages of the Canucks' getting a franchise type C at #6 versus at #1?

I'm talking about a difference between (likely) Nylander versus The Son of Paul. :mex:

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The Brown Knight
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by The Brown Knight »

Aaronp18 wrote:
The Brown Knight wrote: Guys like Anze Kopitar, David Kreijki, Ryan Getzlaf, etc.
Which of these guys were drafted 1st overall?

Better yet, were any acquired by giving up two top ten picks?
None, but that's not the point.

The point is that a team should try and do whatever it takes to acquire a franchise center if it's within reach.

I'm not saying that it's impossible to draft a franchise center in later stages of the first round, or later rounds entirely. The risk however, is far far greater. Sometimes you hit............and many many times, you miss.

Even in trading up for Reinhart, there is risk............but given Benning's eye for talent (and the obvious hard on he has for the guy), and given the fact that Reinhart is a consensus Top 3 guy in the draft, I think trading up for Reinhart (even if it's at the expense of someone like Horvat) has a very strong chance of paying off.
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The Brown Knight
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by The Brown Knight »

Betamax wrote:
What do you think the chances in terms of percentages of the Canucks' getting a franchise type C at #6 versus at #1?

I'm talking about a difference between (likely) Nylander versus The Son of Paul. :mex:
Exactly.

Statistics and history has shown that there is far less risk (and much higher potential for ROI) in drafting 1st or 2nd, as opposed to drafting anywhere from 6/7 down to 30. The risk increases exponentially as you move away from the Top 3.

Can a guy like Reinhart be a bust while a guy like Nylander becomes all-world? Of course. However - it's all about calculated risk. Of course I agree with Aaronp18 that franchise centers can be drafted in any stage and any round of any draft. However - the risk increases exponentially once you move away from that Top 3.

The one thing that has sold me in all of this, is Jim Benning. Benning has a proven eye for talent (if his track record in Boston was of any indication), and he has a serious hard-on for Reinhart.....a consensus Top 3 pick.
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Betamax »

The Brown Knight wrote:Even in trading up for Reinhart, there is risk............but given Benning's eye for talent (and the obvious hard on he has for the guy), and given the fact that Reinhart is a consensus Top 3 guy in the draft, I think trading up for Reinhart (even if it's at the expense of someone like Horvat) has a very strong chance of paying off.
Audere est Facere. 8-)

I've pointed out several times here, it's not a "consensus" that Horvat gonna be a No. 2C centre at the NHL level like a Bergeron. As I pointed out, just like there are doubts that The Son of Paul might not end up being a 1C and be a 2C, The Province's Ben Kuzma stated he talked to several scouts who believes Horvat will end up being a 3C like a Malhotra. :mex:

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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Rumsfeld »

Betamax wrote:
The Brown Knight wrote:Even in trading up for Reinhart, there is risk............but given Benning's eye for talent (and the obvious hard on he has for the guy), and given the fact that Reinhart is a consensus Top 3 guy in the draft, I think trading up for Reinhart (even if it's at the expense of someone like Horvat) has a very strong chance of paying off.
Audere est Facere. 8-)

I've pointed out several times here, it's not a "consensus" that Horvat gonna be a No. 2C centre at the NHL level like a Bergeron. As I pointed out, just like there are doubts that The Son of Paul might not end up being a 1C and be a 2C, The Province's Ben Kuzma stated he talked to several scouts who believes Horvat will end up being a 3C like a Malhotra. :mex:
Malhotra had way less offensive talent that Horvat has already shown, in particular his shot and stickhandling. Manny was a pure shutdown guy when he was at his best.

Manny was also way faster than Horvat is ever likely to be.

The only thing they have in common is good defensive awareness and faceoff acumen.

Don't get the comparison at all.
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Betamax »

Rumsfeld wrote:
Betamax wrote:
The Brown Knight wrote:Even in trading up for Reinhart, there is risk............but given Benning's eye for talent (and the obvious hard on he has for the guy), and given the fact that Reinhart is a consensus Top 3 guy in the draft, I think trading up for Reinhart (even if it's at the expense of someone like Horvat) has a very strong chance of paying off.
Audere est Facere. 8-)

I've pointed out several times here, it's not a "consensus" that Horvat gonna be a No. 2C centre at the NHL level like a Bergeron. As I pointed out, just like there are doubts that The Son of Paul might not end up being a 1C and be a 2C, The Province's Ben Kuzma stated he talked to several scouts who believes Horvat will end up being a 3C like a Malhotra. :mex:
Malhotra had way less offensive talent that Horvat has already shown, in particular his shot and stickhandling. Manny was a pure shutdown guy when he was at his best.

Manny was also way faster than Horvat is ever likely to be.

The only thing they have in common is good defensive awareness and faceoff acumen.

Don't get the comparison at all.
A player that will be a 3C checking centre. There is some doubt how much of his offensive game will translate in the NHL. I mean those youtube toe drag highlights etc.. look impressive but any player can look like the greatest thing since sliced bread when you compile a best of highlights ...... :mex:

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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Rumsfeld »

Whatever, Horvat can clearly rip the puck already. Manny couldn't hit the side of a barn.

They might both end up being 3Cs, but they will be nothing alike.
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The Brown Knight
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by The Brown Knight »

Betamax wrote:
The Brown Knight wrote:Even in trading up for Reinhart, there is risk............but given Benning's eye for talent (and the obvious hard on he has for the guy), and given the fact that Reinhart is a consensus Top 3 guy in the draft, I think trading up for Reinhart (even if it's at the expense of someone like Horvat) has a very strong chance of paying off.
Audere est Facere. 8-)

I've pointed out several times here, it's not a "consensus" that Horvat gonna be a No. 2C centre at the NHL level like a Bergeron. As I pointed out, just like there are doubts that The Son of Paul might not end up being a 1C and be a 2C, The Province's Ben Kuzma stated he talked to several scouts who believes Horvat will end up being a 3C like a Malhotra. :mex:
Agreed.

There is always risk when it comes to draft picks. Unfortunately, nothing is set in stone and there are always tons of variables. Both Horvat and Reinhart could end up falling well short of their projections, or could end up exceeding it big time.

The only two things that have really sold me, are:

1) Benning loves Reinhart..........and Benning has proven that he has an "eagle eye" for talent from his time in Boston.

2) History has shown that there is significantly less risk and variance in drafting a Center in the Top 3, as opposed to a Center/Forward, etc., from the 6th/7th spot downwards. Not only that, but the potential for ROI tends to be significantly/exponentially higher when one drafts in the Top 1-2 (particularly, if it's a Center you are drafting).

I think another interesting trend over the past 10-12 years, is that there have been far less incidences of first overall picks being "busts".......especially if they are centers.

Think about it: I would argue that the only players over the past decade that haven't quite lived up to expectations are Erik Johnson (D - who actually is starting to turn things around now), Nail Yakupov (RW), and Ryan Nugent Hopkins (a Center).

In Edmonton's case however, they are a mismanaged team that erroneously thrusts first round picks immediately into positions that they are too green for and as result, don't end up maximizing their talents.

Bottom line is this: Given Benning's eye for talent, Reinhart's slated ranking in the draft and position he plays, and historical trends and statistics, I think going after Reinhart is an excellent calculated risk even if it's at the expense of Horvat.
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Hockey Widow »

You keep talking about Benning's proven eye for talent. Elaborate please. Who is he responsible for drafting? Boston, like all teams, use a team approach for drafting and he was the AGM, not the final arbitror of pick selections. Boston has had some good picks and some very good picks. But which ones was Benning personally responsible for spotting/drafting?

Now I've too heard he is an excellent judge of talent and has an eye for picking prospects. That is his reputation but what have we that is proven fact?

Benning will be judged in 3-4 years, when we have a chance to see his record unfold. His record on drafting, trades, FA signings from undrafted players, college players and NHL FA. When we have a chance to see his body of work we can then speak to his special powers of observation. Until then it is just media spoon fed cheap talk and unsubstantiated rumour/reputation.

Don't get me wrong, I like the selection of Benning as GM but I want to see results before I proclaim him super GM.
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Chef Boi RD »

Well, you can't fault the optimism, HW, because this time theyve hired someone with 12 years of experience as a top pro scout and 7 years as an assistant GM for an organization who seemingly have got it right instead of handing the keys to someone with zero experience in building a team, or front office work who was only just a despised players agent before getting the job. Gillis was out of his element, but lucky for him he inherited a pretty fine, young nucleus whereas Benning has inherited an aging core, with a shallow prospect pool with nowhere near the depth that Gillis inherited not to mention an extremely inexperienced goaltending position. One good thing, apparently Benning is universally liked around the league so making deals with other GMs will not be as difficult as it was with Mr Arrogant

You still seem bitter with The firing of Gillis
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by The Brown Knight »

Hockey Widow wrote: Now I've too heard he is an excellent judge of talent and has an eye for picking prospects. That is his reputation but what have we that is proven fact?


Don't get me wrong, I like the selection of Benning as GM but I want to see results before I proclaim him super GM.

Agreed Hockey Widow. I am admittedly, just going by what I heard. From what I have heard, Benning played a very very large role in assembling the current Bruins team. A lot of what Benning did had to do with selecting 'the right guy.' Again though, it's just what I heard.

There are obviously many factors involved in what constitutes being a good GM, but from what I've heard, Benning is a beast when it comes to recognizing talent. Hence - my confidence in his apparent hard-on for Reinhart.
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Re: If it took Horvat + 6th to acquire 2014 1st pick, would

Post by Island Nucklehead »

The Brown Knight wrote: There are obviously many factors involved in what constitutes being a good GM, but from what I've heard, Benning is a beast when it comes to recognizing talent. Hence - my confidence in his apparent hard-on for Reinhart.

Well... a shit-flinging monkey could make a first overall pick, even the Oilers can do that. As usual, it's the depth picks that make or break teams. Benning was in charge of a scouting department that found Kotalik, Miller, Gaustad, Roy, Pomminville, Wideman, McArthur, Kaleta, Gerbe etc. OUTSIDE of the first round. Pretty good. Not sure if he had any say in the Bruins 2006 draft, but since then it's been a whole lot of MEH for them in the later rounds (goooo Ryan Spooner and Lane MacDermid :look: ).

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